Bowling Green | Oregon | Buffalo | Rutgers | Iowa | Michigan State | Penn State | Nebraska | Indiana | Maryland | Illinois | TTUN | B1G Champ Game

Over the past two weeks we simulated what the Ohio State football season might look like if the schedule goes off as advertised. This really did not take into account if there were fans in the stadium or anything of that nature, just the games as we saw them at this very moment based on each of the rosters and other variables that might go into picking games.

We are still 117 days until the start of the season, but a lot of decisions will need to be made in the shorter term if the 2020 football season is going to go off as planned.

You can check out our individual game breakdowns above in the links to see how we liked each game to go, but all three of our pickers liked the Buckeyes to go undefeated through the regular season and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game, with a fourth straight Big Ten Championship in the cards.

We are going to break down some other numbers from our simulations to wrap up this series.

As mentioned above, we all have the Buckeyes running through the regular season undefeated, so there is not a loss on the board for any of us, but is there a game that concerns us? Braden had his biggest concern about the Michigan State game, the first of two big road games for the Buckeyes in league play. His 10-point margin reminds us of some of the battles that Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio had through the years in this series. Neither are here now, it is Ryan Day and Mel Tucker and it will be interesting to see what Tucker will be able to do with a roster that appears on the surface to be a little depleted. But let’s also remember that “trap games” aren’t always about the team with the most talent, just the team that plays the best on that given day.

Keaton and Kevin both agree that Penn State could be that dangerous game as Kevin sees it being the closest margin of the season (he also has Indiana listed as a 14-point margin) while Keaton has it as a three-point nail-biter. Penn State will do everything in its power to make this a whiteout night game, and being eight weeks into the season, if there are going to be fans in the stands at any point, this might be the time that there will be at least some. Environment aside, Penn State will return some key players in key roles and has a lot of depth on its roster and will have more than half of a season to develop some young guys into veterans. Being the backend of a two-game road trip for the Buckeyes also adds to the degree of difficulty in this one.

With apologies to the former Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano, none of us feel that the Rutgers game is going to be much of a challenge, especially with the scene shifting back to Columbus for this game early in the season.

Schiano very well may end up being a savior for the Rutgers program but it is going to take time for the ship to be righted in this case. This is not a case of an underachieving roster waiting for the right leadership to step in. No, this team needs more athletes on both sides of the ball.

Plus, Schiano’s success with the Scarlet Knights took place when the team was in the Big East, not the Big Ten East. It remains to be seen what the future will hold here, but if things go right, maybe the Scarlet Knights can be a perennial seven or eight-win type of team, occasionally picking off one of the big boys in the division. But beyond that? We will just have to wait and see.

Two of us picked this game to be a 53-point margin and one picked a 56-point margin. Braden somehow feels that the Scarlet Knights will score 10 points, I am not so sure about that, even if Day calls the dogs off early in this one.

How good will this offense be under a second-year Justin Fields within the program? We know he is going to have a veteran offensive line in many regards with stars like Wyatt Davis, Josh Myers and Thayer Munford.

JK Dobbins, KJ Hill, Bin Victor, Austin Mack and others are gone from the offense but there are plenty of troops in reserve along with graduate transfer Trey Sermon.

In short, the offense should be pretty darn good?

But how good?

Through our picks, we each put in scores for the games and the numbers break down like this:

How do those numbers compare with previous years?

Our numbers for 2020 are through a Big Ten Championship Game while numbers for previous seasons would include a B1GCG and bowl game if they were played.

None of us have Ohio State breaking the offensive number in terms of points scored from last year, but Braden is really close. Keaton is not far off, only off half a point. Kevin sees the offense maybe taking a little bit of a step back, down a little bit more than four points per game.

The Buckeyes took a major step in 2019 from a disappointing 2018 in terms of defense, besting their points allowed total by almost 12 points, nearly halving the 25.5 points surrendered per game in the ’18 season.

Just like with the offense, the defense will see some major names off the roster including Chase Young, Jeff Okudah and Damon Arnette, all NFL first-round picks. But outside of the secondary, a lot of the familiar names will be back. And with Kerry Coombs back in an Ohio State polo shirt (always short sleeved, no matter the conditions) you should expect the next wave of great Ohio State DBs to be developed quickly.

But what does this mean in terms of where we see the defense standing, at least in regard to points allowed?

Just like with the offense, here is a look at recent years with the defense.

Kevin and Braden are very close in their picks, in fact Braden predicts 184 points allowed through the B1G Championship Game while Kevin sees it at 186 points. That is a difference of 14.2 points per game to 14.3 points per game. Keaton on the other hand sees a few more points scored, but still check in at 16.9 points per game allowed. That is a higher number than in most years, but if Ohio State is scoring 46.4 points per game (as Keaton predicted) a margin of 29.5 points per game, or better than four touchdowns, is still enough to win comfortably.

If we all have Ohio State going 13-0 through the B1G Championship Game, then that means we all feel that the Buckeyes will be going to the College Football Playoffs. The national semifinals are at the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl with the championship game set to be played in Miami on January 11th, 2021.

In our final step of these pieces, we each picked the “final four” along with seeds:

Kevin: 1. Ohio State, 2. Clemson, 3. Georgia, 4. Alabama

Keaton: 1. Alabama, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Oregon

Braden: 1. Ohio State, 2. Clemson, 3. Texas, 4. Georgia

That means under Kevin and Braden’s scenarios, Ohio State and its opponent likely would be shipped off to the Rose Bowl, just to take any sort of geographical advantage away from their SEC opponent. Under Keaton’s scenario, Ohio State would also end up likely at the Rose Bowl but against their recent kryptonite of Clemson.

Beyond that? All bets are off.

We will revisit these pieces if/when the season happens and even though we will have new interns in place, it will be interesting to check and see how accurate our April/May picks are to what will really happen.