Published May 3, 2020
Simulating the season: Penn State
Staff
Staff

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Ohio State has won seven of the last eight in this series but if you just think about how games have gone over those last 32 quarters of football, this series has a much more even feel than 7-1 in favor of the Buckeyes.

Penn State has found new and creative ways to run out leads, only to fall to Ohio State in the closing moments of games. While that really came into focus during the 2017 and 2018 games, that is going to be the prevailing thought until either Penn State turns it around or Ohio State puts a couple of laughers on the board and puts 27-26 and 39-38 into the later pages of the history book.

If we are being honest with ourselves, this is the biggest game of the Big Ten season. Not the Michigan game, not any game in the B1G West or any other game. This game generally will hold the fate of the B1G East in its hands and the winner of this game is going to Indianapolis. Michigan State is down, Michigan has never been to Indy for a B1GCG, the trip of Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers need not apply.

It all comes down to this. And of course it will be a White Out, 110-thousand-plus well-marinated fans caked in white body paint and/or wearing ugly plastic Joe Paterno masks.

Not a pretty scene.

Ohio State sucking the air out of Beaver Stadium however is a beautiful scene, if you are an Ohio State fan. It is pretty amazing how quick that place can go from the noise of a fleet of jet engines to utter silence.

Let's just hope that the season gets underway and the possibility for that once again is on the table.

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Series History: Ohio State leads the series 21-14

Last time played: The schedule makers did Ohio State no favors by giving the Buckeyes Penn State and then a road game at Michigan in back-to-back weeks to end the season, but that is what happened and Ohio State made the double-dip, winning this one 28-17 in a game that saw Justin Fields go down with an injury, saw Penn State claw back within four points and all sorts of drama in late November.

JK Dobbins rushed for 157 yards and two scores on 36 carries while Fields was 16-22 throwing the ball for 188 yards and two scores. Fields also carried the ball 21 times in this game but when he went to the turf, there was an eerie silence in Ohio Stadium as a journey that had carried Ohio State to 10-0 on the season came into question. Fields would finish the game but his running ability would be hampered as he would have to often wear the "big brace" after this game.

Penn State would turn to a back-up quarterback when Sean Clifford left the game due to injury and Will Levis would lead Penn State back to getting close but eventually an interception by Justin Hilliard would be the capper and end the Penn State threat.

Kevin Noon - Publisher

For as much as we talk about the 'White Out' at Penn State, it is not as if Ohio State has done terrible in those games. Everyone will remember the blocked field goal in 2016 and return that sealed Ohio State's lone recent loss in this series but before that game, Ohio State had not lost in State College (Pa.) since 2005.

This will be Ohio State's second-straight road game and while the Buckeyes have had success in this building, that doesn't mean that anything is going to be handed to them.

Look for a much more confident Justin Fields in this one and while he loses a lot of talent around him from last year's receiving corps, he has talent upon talent around him and Ohio State's young receivers won't be all that young any longer in this one.

Ohio State is going to have to find a way to account for Micah Parsons, a player that has that unique ability to single-handedly impact a game, he is just that good when he is on. He should be on for this one.

Where is Penn State going to find its offense. Clifford is an underrated quarterback and should be a lot better this time around but where will be the weapons in the pass game come from? Penn State has some young guys, who like Ohio State won't be as young this game as in week one or two, but how will they face off against Ohio State's always challenging secondary?

A lot of this game will come down to how Penn State is able to run the ball against Ohio State's defense and a lot of that will come down to Clifford himself as a dual-threat kind of guy. Even a team like Ohio State that has its own dual-threat QB to face in practice will find it challenging to contain a QB that is just as good in the run game as the throw game. We are not sure Clifford is quite there yet, but don't sleep on this guy.

Ultimately, this is going to be a case of where Ohio State knows how to win these games and Penn State has not shown any consistency in winning these games. James Franklin might call it the difference of being "very good" and "elite" but however you look at it, Ohio State is much better equipped to win this kind of game, and will. Ohio State 34 Penn State 20

Additional Stat Line: Justin Fields 21/29, 264 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Keaton Maisano - Staff Writer

The yearly matchup with Penn State has turned out to be Ohio State's toughest test over the past few years, and Justin Fields will look to bolster his legacy by doing something that Buckeye quarterbacks in recent memory have been able to do: win in Happy Valley.

J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins have both had to dig deep for gutty victories in front of the whiteout crowd, and if the recent trend continues, Fields will have to as well. In order to win this game, he will have to use both his arm and legs, and I fully expect Ryan Day to pull out all the stops in order to keep Ohio State in the running for the Big Ten East crown.

As Ohio State's quarterback, Fields has played in a few tough environments with trips to Nebraska and Michigan, but nothing is quite like a trip to Penn State in front of the whiteout crowd. Also his road trips have been seemingly carried out without any adversity on the scoreboard, which is unlikely on the road against the Nittany Lions.

I would expect things to not go as smoothly as they usually do for Ohio State, and the Buckeyes may need to take a few punches to the mouth in order to survive.

I think the difference in this game will be Ohio State's receiving corps. While there is a lot of youth in the group, the talent is overwhelming, and I think this is the game they really shine for the Buckeyes.

I think Garrett Wilson will especially play well in this one as he continues his rise to stardom.

The defense and offense make enough plays and Ohio State escapes undefeated. Ohio State 31 Penn State 28

Additional Stat Line: Garrett Wilson - 7 catches, 98 yards, 2 TD

Braden Moles - Staff Writer

While the last few games between these teams (2017-2019) have gone the way of the Buckeyes, there's never been any doubt that the Nittany Lions aren't the most competitive team that Ohio State faces during any given season.

This will be true again this time around. Penn State returns Sean Clifford at quarterback, and though he didn't necessarily impress against the Buckeyes last season (10/17, 71 yards), he'll be a year older, and this time it will be on his home turf.

Journey Brown will be back at running back, the only Nittany Lion to average over two yards per carry in last year's matchup. Defensively, Yetur Gross-Matos, who had two sacks of Justin Fields, left in the NFL Draft and this leaves Penn State vulnerable across the middle of the field. While Micah Parsons will still be there, not having that 1-2 punch could hurt Penn State. Fields had 68 rushing yards last time around, and he could be looking for more against the Nittany Lions this year.

As for the annual White Out tradition, it certainly looks impressive on TV, but does it actually matter in terms of winning games? The Nittany Lions are 90-25 (win percentage of nearly 80) at home since they began White Out games in 2004, but they've gone only 8-8 in said White Out games.

It would be unfair if I didn't point out that the White Out games often come against better competition, with 13 of the 16 games coming against opponents who were ranked at the time, but it's still interesting to note that it doesn't necessarily provide them a distinct advantage beyond the normal bonus of having the home crowd.

Overall, I like Ohio State to put up a lot of points in this one. While J.K. Dobbins put up 157 yards last year, it came on just 4.4 yards per carry, so Ryan Day and company could look to move things through the air a little bit more. While a road game in the Big Ten would normally indicate that you pound the rock more than usual, when you look at the last few close matchups between these two teams, you see a pattern of the Buckeyes winning through the air.

J.T. Barrett (in 2017) and Dwayne Haskins (in 2018) threw 39 passes apiece against the Nittany Lions and combined for 598 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns. A healthy mix between the running game and passing game is always necessary, but this may be one where Fields is allowed to air it out more than usual and put up some points. Ohio State 42, Penn State 24

Additional Stat: Ohio State - 400 yards of total offense

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