Published May 2, 2020
Simulating the season: Michigan State
Staff
Staff

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It was not all that long ago that games between Ohio State and Michigan State were some of the most competitive in the Big Ten and no other team within the conference could celebrate as much success against the Buckeyes as the Spartans.

Fortunes have changed a little bit in the past four meetings however as the Buckeyes have gone back to holding the upper-hand in this one and have have won the previous four contests by a combined 125-35 margin, and that does include a 17-16 game in East Lansing in 2016.

This 2020 game will be played (if/when) in East Lansing and games at Spartan Stadium have been much closer than games back in Columbus at Ohio Stadium and even the last game, a 20-point win in 2018 in East Lansing was considerably closer through three quarters as Ohio State held only a 9-6 lead in blustery conditions.

Things are different this year for the Spartans however as a new head coach is in town after the sudden departure of Mark Dantonio and Mel Tucker inherits a team coming off of a mediocre 7-6 season and 5th place finish in the Big Ten East.

How will the Buckeyes handle their first conference road game and first road game overall in more than a month? We take a look at how we see things going down.

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Series History: Ohio State leads the series 33-15

Last time played: The Buckeyes would take care of the Spartans at home in a 34-10 decision. Justin Fields would throw his first interception of the season in this game but would also connect on a pair of touchdowns and throw for 206 yards on 17 completions. J.K. Dobbins would rush for 172 yards on 24 carries and have a score of his own while seven different player would catch a pass but only Binjimen Victor and Luke Farrell would find the end zone.

The Buckeyes would get out to a 10-0 lead in this game and the Spartans would close the margin to just three in the 2nd with a 20-yard touchdown pass from Brian Lewerke to Darrell Stewart. Ohio State would rely on a familiar strong second quarter to put up 24 points and take a 17-point lead to the locker room.

This was not one of Ohio State's cleanest games of the season and it would be safe to say that the first quarter was a bit of a struggle but the Buckeyes would just be too strong for the nation's No. 25 team and would send everyone home happy and on to the next one.

Kevin Noon - Publisher

While Urban Meyer had his struggles against Michigan State, Ryan Day has not run into that, but he has also not taken his team into East Lansing.

This figures to be a major rebuild for the Spartans and you would expect Ohio State to have its way in this one, on paper. But sometimes there are just teams who seem to have a magic bullet or two in reserve and you know that the Spartans would love nothing more than to beat the Buckeyes (outside of shutting out the Wolverines, their natural in-state rival).

The weather in this game really is the unknown and if it is clear sailing, the Buckeyes could run away with this one. If it is crummy outside and the Spartans are able to load up against the run, it could be trench warfare. There is one thing that we do know however, Ohio State will bring in the much more talented roster. But I would personally like to see J.K. Dobbins carrying the ball if it comes down to three-yards and a cloud of dust.

It is hard enough picking football games, let alone the weather, but let's just say it is okay, not great and not poor. I like Justin Fields to be efficient in throwing the ball as Ohio State will have too many playmakers on offense for the Spartans to be able to deal with. But ultimately, this game has the DNA of the Big Ten and it will come down to the team that can run the ball effectively.

Advantage Ohio State.

Who is going to be able to run the ball for Michigan State? Yeah, we don't have our Phil Steele College Football Guide either to check that one out.

The Spartans would need to play this game in the teens, and still need a couple of breaks to get there offensively. We just don't see that happening. It is not going to be a high-scoring game for the Buckeyes, but it will be enough. Ohio State 28 Michigan State 10

Additional Stat Line: Ohio State 47 carries, 287 yards, 2 TD

Keaton Maisano - Staff Writer

Promising Ohio State teams have seen seasons dashed by an unfortunate outcome against Sparty, and a road visit to East Lansing, Michigan will only add to the difficulty of this matchup.

Michigan State had a letdown of a 2019 season after starting the year with high expectations and a No. 18 ranking in the AP Poll. Ohio State handled the Spartans in the lone night game at Ohio Stadium in 2019, but the game's significance would come from Justin Fields's interception, the only regular season interception of his career, in the third quarter.

I would expect more fight out of Michigan State in the 2020 matchup, and the game will unfortunately come the week before a tough trip to Happy Valley. With a likely crucial matchup looming the following week, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes will need to be locked in against a Michigan State team that will make the Buckeyes earn every point.

With it being a road contest, I expect Ohio State to lean on the run game to open things up, and I think either Master Teague or Trey Sermon will highlight the offensive attack. Whoever is in control of the position at the time will be able to spark Ohio State's offense and break through for a big performance. In the last matchup, J.K. Dobbins was able to rush for 172 yards on 24 carries.

Ohio State's defense should find success against a Michigan State offense that always struggles to be creative and find points against the Buckeyes, so I think Michigan State's only path to success would have to come from an ugly game in which they force Ohio State into turnovers.

Fields and the offense will be to sound to allow turnovers to lose them a game, so I expect Ohio State to do enough to stay undefeated for the matchup against Penn State. Ohio State 31 Michigan State 17

Addition Stat Line: Ohio State - 0 passing touchdowns

Braden Moles - Staff Writer

Michigan State has become a bit of a punching bag for the Buckeyes ever since the Spartans upset Ohio State in 2015, but I think this is the year that Michigan State might begin to turn things around.

Along with the game against Michigan the week before this matchup, this will be one of Mel Tucker's first chances as head coach of the Spartans to show that the program is going in a different direction than it has in the last few seasons.

This may not result in a win necessarily, but Michigan State will give its best shot to the Buckeyes in years.

The Spartans' offense may have some serious questions to answer with the departure of Brian Lewerke and the likely ascendance of Rocky Lombardi as the starter, but what you can never question is Michigan State's defense.

Ranked 19th in total yards allowed last season, Michigan State held the Buckeyes to their third fewest points in a game last season and were only one of two teams (joining Clemson) to intercept Justin Fields during the season. As dominant as Ohio State's offense was last year, the Spartans were one of the few teams to make them look vulnerable at points, and this time it will be in East Lansing.

I think this will likely be one of the lowest scoring games of the season for Ohio State. I don't expect Michigan State's offense to put many points on the board, but the Spartans could cause problems for the Buckeyes defensively.

This is a game that likely would have been perfect for J.K. Dobbins (or Ezekiel Elliot. Too soon?) to carry the ball a ton, but that responsibility will fall to one of the potential backs for 2020, likely Trey Sermon, to help keep Ohio State in a tightly-contested game.

This is one that could fly under the radar for the Buckeyes, especially sandwiched between Iowa and Penn State, but Ryan Day gave good evidence last season that he doesn't get caught looking past opponents. In the end, Ohio State won't come out of it with a loss, but there will be a few moments where you'll hold your breath. Ohio State 27, Michigan State 17

Additional Stat Line: Trey Sermon - 21 carries, 135 yards, 2 TD