Published Oct 30, 2020
Staff Predictions: Penn State
Staff
Staff

It is hard to believe that this game between Ohio State and Penn State will be the 35th time these two teams have met in the history of this series. The two teams met as conference mates for the first time back in 1993 and in those 26 games, the Buckeyes hold an edge of 18-8 in Big Ten games.

Ohio State honestly has owned this series in a win-loss manner here as of late, winners of nine out of the last 11 and three straight. Sure, there have been some scary and crazy games along the way. A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in 2016 would end up being the difference in that one with Ohio State following up the next two years in erasing double-digit fourth-quarter Penn State leads to eke out one-point wins both seasons.

That trend ended last year with Ohio State winning by 11 in Columbus (Ohio) but even in that game, the Buckeyes opened up a 21-0 lead before Penn State would cut the lead to four and then a 28-yard Chris Olave touchdown reception early in the 4th would widen the gap and end the scoring.

The point is, the oddsmakers may love the Buckeyes in this one but you never know what is going to happen, outside of Ohio State winning this game more often than losing it, white out or not.

How do we see this game going down? Let's head to our predictions. And we want to thank our friends at Hague Water Conditioning who continue to support us here at BuckeyeGrove.com and their generous sponsorship of this piece is an invaluable addition to everything that we do here.

Advertisement

Kevin Noon - Publisher

White out, non-white out, let's really be honest here, the Buckeyes have handled playing in State College well through the years. Or at least since the time that Jim Tressel took over the program and moving forward.

Tressel lost twice in Happy Valley, Luke Fickell never had the opportunity to coach there, Urban Meyer lost once and this will be Ryan Day's first crack at the stadium as head coach. John Cooper lost as many times (three) as all of the head coaches that followed him.

So, Ohio State is 19-8 in this series, since Penn State joined the Big Ten and in that time, six of the eight losses have occurred in Happy Valley and Ohio State is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this game.

Penn State is going to be hurting in the running back position, no Journey Brown and no Noah Cain have the Nittany Lions down to Devyn Ford and a couple of freshmen ball carriers. Couple that with an offense that is not really all that deep outside of Sean Clifford and Pat Freiermuth and I am puzzled where the Nittany Lions are going to find points.

PLUS: Tale of the Tape

For all we want to talk about what a great defensive team that Penn State has been through the years, Ohio State has scored at least 27 points in its seven wins and the only time it did not reach that mark was the one loss in the series, a game where Ohio State only scored 21 points.

On the flipside, Penn State has only broken the 27-point barrier just one time in those eight games, when the Nits scored 38, but the Buckeyes scored more in a 39-38 come from behind win in 2017.

I don't expect Ohio State to have all of its issues fixed here in week two but this Ohio State team is a heck of a lot closer to finding its potential than Penn State is, at least in terms of offense. On the other side of the ball, you may want to say that Penn State will be motivated in this game after letting one slip away in the worst possible way to Indiana in week one, but where you see motivation, I see a tremendous amount of self-doubt after holding a 99.5-percent statistical chance of winning the game and honestly that number may be too low.

Penn State will be able to keep the Ohio State running game largely in-check but won't be able to do much about the throw game, regardless of what Chris Olave's status may be for the game. Ohio State won't be at a point-a-minute pace in this one but will score enough to get beyond that 27-point plateau while Penn State will struggle to find any consistency on the offensive side of the ball and won't have any "juice" from the home crowd to feed off of. Expect a close game for about a half but then Ohio State will pull away. Ohio State 38, Penn State 17

Griffin Strom - Staff Writer

The season didn’t start the way James Franklin and the Nittany Lions wanted –– or at all expected –– entering Week 1 against Indiana as the No. 8-ranked team in the country, and their outlook has a chance to get a whole lot bleaker this week against the Buckeyes.

Ryan Day, who has never lost to Penn State since joining Ohio State in 2017, will see the lowest-ranked Nittany Lion team he has faced thus far during his Big Ten tenure, but don’t think the Buckeyes’ 52-17 win against Nebraska was a flawless one.

The quarterback run has now been proven effective in a multitude of games dating back to last season against this Ohio State defensive scheme, whether manned by Jeff Hafley or Kerry Coombs, and they’d better make adjustments if they expect to slow down Sean Clifford and the Penn State offense.

AND: Wade disappointed w/ lack of White Out

Clifford ran for 119 yards against the Hoosiers last week, and with 35 pass attempts to boot, he’ll likely give Sevyn Banks, Marcus Williamson and the rest of the new-look Buckeye secondary the test in coverage that it didn’t receive against Nebraska due to a lack of downfield passing.

Penn State will score some points, but it will have to match the pace of Justin Fields and his talented wide receiver corps –– something that few teams in the nation probably have the capability of doing this season.

That goal will be made easier for the Nittany Lions if Buckeye wide receiver Chris Olave is out, and if Ohio State’s new co-starters at running back come out flat for a second-straight week, but I still can't bet against the Buckeyes to reach the low 40s after what I saw in Week 1. Ohio State 41, Penn State 27


Jacob Benge - Staff Writer

Ryan Day said it earlier in the week.

"Penn State is always hungry when they play us."

The now-No. 18 Nittany Lions couldn't be hungrier after their season-opener at Indiana slipped through their hands, and they must now rebound against No. 3 Ohio State at home - without their fans behind them.

Perhaps the biggest offensive question for the Buckeyes will be the health of Chris Olave, who exited last week's game against Nebraska. Garrett Wilson, who also had a spectacular first game, said he expects Olave to be ready, so we'll see.

Defensively, the Buckeyes started slow and roared to the finish line in Week 1. Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford threw two interceptions last week, and I think Ohio State is already overdue for their first pick of the season after not snagging one in the season's first four quarters.

ALSO: Buckeyes react to Smith-Njigba's first TD catch

Clifford also led the Nittany Lions in passing and rushing last week, throwing for 238 yards and gaining 119 on the ground. The Buckeyes were just tasked with Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey, so I think they've taken some notes on quarterback runs.

Keep an eye on Pat Freiermuth, who has caught at least 40 yards against Ohio State in the two games he's competed against the scarlet and gray.

I'll be curious to see the production of Shaka Toney. This matchup presents his fourth crack at the Buckeyes, and he didn't record a sack in any of the previous three games.

Toney did pick up two sacks last week against Indiana, and I'll bet he collects two more this week to boost his stock. If this plays true, pressure on the Ohio State running game will be sky high.

Saturday will mark the fourth straight year that ESPN's College GameDay broadcasts the Ohio State and Penn State matchup. I think they'll broadcast the fourth-straight Buckeyes victory over the Nittany Lions. Ohio State 34 Penn State 16

Marcus Horton - Staff Writer

There is no doubt in my mind that James Franklin and Sean Clifford will come out strong against Ohio State. More than anything, this Penn State team beat itself against Indiana last week. It out-gained the Hoosiers by over 250 yards and dominated the time of possession and pace of game.

Clifford looked rusty throwing the ball early, but bounced back and was strong on the ground- an area Ohio State struggled mightily to defend in game one. Without starting running back Journey Brown, the pressure is on Clifford and sophomore Devyn Ford to replicate Nebraska’s success running the ball.

The Penn State defense limited a potentially-explosive Indiana offense to just 211 yards and brought relentless pressure throughout the game. If it can penetrate the Buckeye offensive line and stifle the run game of Trey Sermon and Master Teague, the Nittany Lions' secondary is strong enough to put up a better fight than Nebraska against Justin Fields and his elite group of receivers.

ALSO: Wilson talks move to slot, basketball origins

The area of most importance entering the contest is the turnover margin. Fields will not make many mistakes and Ryan Day has stressed (on multiple occasions) the importance of taking care of the ball. On the other hand, Penn State turned the ball over three times in the first half last weekend and looked sloppy out of the gates.

If the Nittany Lions can’t hold onto the ball early, this game will quickly be out of reach. The margin of error is razor-thin for Franklin and his team.

Day will have the Buckeyes prepared for a night trip to Happy Valley. Penn State is chomping at the bit to bounce back in a major way. Even if the Buckeye defense continues to be a step slow, Fields and company simply have too much talent to be stopped. Ohio State 38, Penn State 20

Justin Whitlatch - Analyst

The keys to the game is having a great game plan to slow down TE Freiermuth. Baron Browning has a big week ahead of him being matched up with the best TE in the country. I could see an adjustment being made where Ohio State changes the match up and puts a better pass defender on Freiermuth, or subbing in the nickle package with Proctor at the bullet.

ANALYSIS: Pondering Penn State

Offensively, using formations that help with the press man like bunch, stack, etc. will help the Ohio State offense. Day will use his man beaters that consistently get good matchups. Passing schemes like y-cross, mesh, shallow cross, isolation shots. If PSU wants to play off, and play the pass then Ohio State will need to get the running game going. PSU consistently out numbered Indiana in the run. After seeing Ohio States OL struggle vs. Nebraska, PSU might feel comfortable playing a lighter box and putting a safety back to stop the passing game. Ohio State 35- Penn State 17.

Joseph Hastings - Recruiting Writer

There is no question in my mind that Ohio State is going to put up points offensively at will.

We just saw Indiana put up 36 points against this Penn State defense on Saturday. Granted, 10 of those came off of turnovers — with one of those interceptions occurring inside PSU's own 10-yardline — and the game did go to overtime, but the Hoosiers are not considered an elite offense whatsoever and almost got to 40 points.

The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are an elite offense, and will keep the Nittany Lions on their feet all night. Even if Chris Olave does not end up strapping up the pads Justin Fields has some weapons to work with. Garrett Wilson is a mismatch nightmare for any secondary, freshman wideout Julian Fleming will have an increased role and Jaxon Smith-Njigba showed what he could do with his ridiculous catch against Nebraska.

I'm also interested in seeing if Ryan Day's staff will continue to let Fields carry the ball the same amount of times as he did against the Cornhuskers. Fields had 15 carries and was the team's leading rusher with 54 yards on the ground. You can get caught up with how beautifully he throws the football that you forget he's a threat to take off at any moment, so this will give Penn State issues if the Buckeyes stick with that game plan.

I am certainly concerned about Ohio State's rushing defense, specifically against PSU signal caller Sean Clifford. We saw Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey torch the Buckeyes on the ground for 180 yards between the two of them last Saturday. Clifford had 119 yards rushing against the Hoosiers, and containing him will be a big priority for Ohio State.

I'm going to give Penn State seven more points than I initially had them scoring purely on them being at home and wanting to respond after that close loss, but Ohio State should take care of business here. Ohio State 45, Penn State 24

Andy Anders - Recruiting Writer

This is the first true test of the season for Ohio State.

It's cliche, but the biggest improvements are made from Week 1 to Week 2 for any football team, and the Buckeyes need that to be the case against No. 18 Penn State. The Nittany Lions may have lost to Indiana this past Saturday, but I still believe they're the biggest challenger to Ohio State's Big Ten throne outside Wisconsin in the West when Graham Mertz returns and maybe Michigan.

Three things need to improve for the Buckeyes: first and foremost, their coverage of the tight end position. If Nebraska's third stringers are gaining chunks, returning second-team All-Big Ten performer Pat Freiermuth could really expose the defense if the linebackers aren't in better spots.

Second, the pass rush. While defensive tackles Tommy Togiai and Haskell Garrett got to the quarterback at a higher clip than is expected from the interior, Ohio State's defensive ends were quiet against Nebraska. Penn State has a legitimate passing attack, and pressure will be a necessity to contain Sean Clifford and company.

Lastly, the running game. Honestly redshirt freshman Steele Chambers looked best at running back from my vantage point, but with 10 months off and an injury to Master Teague to boot he and Trey Sermon will be looking for improved performances. They have the line to do it, but Ohio State's offense can't afford to be one dimensional against Penn State.

While I believe the running game still lags, Penn State's back end is vulnerable to Ohio State's deep core of receivers, the defense limits but doesn't stop the Nittany Lions as it continues finding its footing and the Buckeyes pull away midway through the third quarter. Ohio State 38, Penn State 27.

Jake Spegal - Basketball Recruiting Writer

If you would have asked me who I think the Buckeyes toughest opponent this season is when the abbreviated schedule was first released, I would have told you I worry most about this week’s matchup with Penn State.

However, that is not the case anymore.

I am not simply feeling more confident about the Buckeyes chances against the Nittany Lions because they somehow let their matchup with Indiana slip away last weekend, but because they are slightly undermanned at linebacker and at the running back position.

PREVIEW: Flyin' to the Hoop

Ohio State struggled defending the run at times against Nebraska, however, Penn State is going to be without Journey Brown and Sean Clifford is a less mobile quarterback than Adrian Martinez, so I expect the Buckeyes to contain the rushing attack better this week.

The Buckeye linebackers need to step up and give us a much better showing than last week however, as Tuf Borland and Baron Browning were less than impressive against Nebraska but both can seriously disrupt an offense when in sync.

The Buckeye offense looked fantastic last week and expect Justin Fields and company to replicate their success this Saturday night due to the absence of Penn State junior Micah Parsons due to his decision to opt out of the season as well as the absence of junior linebacker Jesse Luketa, who will be serving a first half suspension due to a target call in last week’s matchup with Indiana.

My biggest reason the Buckeyes will win comfortably, however: no Penn State whiteout.

Ohio State 38, Penn State 13


Fake Urban - @FakeUrban

It’s time for our annual clash with Penn State, the school that tries to make a big deal out of things when Ohio State comes to town. They think they’re our rival. They think they’re elite. The fact is they can’t even beat Indiana.

I give them credit for doing that white out thing but that doesn’t really matter this year. No one other than a few selected guests will be there just like last week. So besides our team having to sit on an airplane and land at Fred Flintstone Happy Valley Regional Airport, this won’t be intimidating.

Expect James Franklin and his team to be ready since they lost to Indiana. But they’re down a running back. Their offense isn’t really that good. They’re much better on the defensive side of the ball but I can’t really see them stopping Justin Fields and our offensive weapons. Sure it might be a little competitive early on but our talent will take over in the third quarter. Then we will move on to the next week with a 2-0 record before we play Penn State’s real rival, Stupid Rutgers. Ohio State 38, Penn State 17