Penn State will come into Saturday nights game vs Ohio State with a loss to Indiana. A lot to unravel there, especially when Penn State just needed to eat clock and keep the ball out of Indiana's hands. James Franklin and his teams have always had issues when it comes to game management and being football savy, and it's costing them wins. That being said, Penn State has a bunch of room to grow. Statistically speaking, Penn State dominated Indiana in all aspects but turnovers.
Penn States defense held Indiana to 211 total yards, where 41 (41!) of those yards came on the ground. Indiana was 4/12 (33%) on third down, forcing Indiana to punt 5 times. When you look at those numbers from a defensive perspective, it looks like Penn State would dominate the football game, but that was just not the case.
Put that in reverse, the Penn State offense amassed 488 yards (250 rushing, 238 passing) and averaged 5.6 yards per play. Great numbers and efficiency from a balance perspective, and they gained a first down every two plays. The costly turnovers from the QB position, penalties, and miserable kicking game let Indiana hang around and win. If Penn State can get this cleaned up, they should bring a much better team into Saturday nights game.
Talent
The one thing that makes Saturday nights game is the amount of talent that will be on the field. If you look at the past three years, Penn State has been at the top of the Big Ten in recruiting rankings.
Yes, Ohio State has more 5 stars but this is the most talent they will see this year outside of the BIG Title game, and possibly the CFP. Penn State brings a ton of 4 star athletes into the game, where they are neck and neck with Ohio State.
PSU Offense
Similar to Nebraska, Penn State had to hire a new offensive coordinator in the off-season. Franklin hired Kirk Ciarrocca from Minnesota. Minnesota broke a bunch of offensive records in 2019, and Ciarrocca was the man in charge of that offense.
Ciarrocca bases his offense around inside and outside zone from both 11 and 12 personel. He compliments his run game with RPO's to take advantage of aggressive LB's. Vs Indiana, he did not show many RPO's off the run game like he featured at Minnesota but we could very well see it soon. On Saturday, Ciarrocca featured star TE Pat Freiermuth. Ciarrocca involved Freiermuth in a number of different ways vs. Indiana.
Passing Game
Penn State does a variety of things with Freiermuth in the passing game. Early in the game Penn State drove the length of the field featuring inside zone and some screens to Freiermuth. Once they got inside the red area, they targeted Freiermuth for a score. This is a play-action of the inside zone they featured throughout the drive and got the LB's sucked in with the run fake.
In Penn States screen game, Freiermuth was featured throughout the entire course of the game. The screen gets used a ton with Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs called "Lambeau".
PSU ran this concept from 11 personnel about 6-7 times averaging 10 yards a pop. This gets the SLB matched up with the TE, since Indiana is in 2 high. PSU hurt Indiana here, because the SLB was in a C gap blitz. When Ohio State is in their 1 high base defense, the SLB (Baron Browning) will be matched up 1 on 1 with Freiermuth.
If Browning can stick with Freiermuth, this screen shouldn't hit for any considerable amount of damage. If Browning struggles with the match-up, this could be a screen PSU utilizes.
In Penn States quicks/3 step drop passing game, they also featured Freiermuth in Hoss Y Juke. They used this concept consistently. The Patriots abused this same concept with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. PSU would always run a vertical with the #2 WR.
With the #1 WR's they ran a fade/hitch option with #1, and run Freiermuth on a "juke" route as the #3 WR. With both #1 WR's (outside WR) they run an option route. If the corner is pressed= vertical, and if the corner was in soft coverage= speed out.
The juke route has 3 options for the TE and is all based on the alignment of the MLB. If the MLB is hard inside, the TE turns out and sits like he does in this clip. If the LB does not match him, the TE sits. And if the TE plays him head up, he runs a juke route.
Again, here is the Hoss Y-Juke concept PSU utilizes with Friermuth. Only key difference in this one is the back side WR runs a vertical because the corner is walked up.
In this clip, Freiermuth runs a stick-nod that looks similar to the "Hoss Y Juke". He turns outside like he would in the stick route they hit him with earlier, but then carries up the field for a big gain. The safety falls for the stick and Pat Freiermuth runs right past him.
How Ohio State wants to play Hoss-Y-Juke and this stick nod will all be dependent on the personnel they use. If Ohio State plays a majority of the game, the SLB (Browning) will be matched up with Freiermuth. If they play zone, it leaves a ton of holes for him to find.
Friermuth in the run game
Penn State bases their offense around inside zone. They use Freiermuth as the guy who seals C gap from a number of different places. They motion Freiermuth from the #3 WR position to run split zone when he is at full speed. This presents a lot of issues for a defense.
First, they have to account for the motion and how they want to adjust. Second, it adds a number to the box that the defense now has to account for and creates an extra gap in run fits. With Ohio State, they usually have the SLB (Browning) follow, so he cannot be late with the motion or they will lose a number in the run game. This trend has become more and more popular, with the problems it presents to a defense.
Here is another example of Penn State motioning Freiermuth to create a 11 personnel run. They motion him to kick out the C gap player and add an extra player in the run game.
Lastly, they use Freiermuth as a relief in the RPO game. Penn State runs inside zone reading the DE. If the QB pulls, Freiermuth is the third option if the safety attacks the QB.
Costly turnovers at the QB position routinely stalled and killed drives for the offense. There were many times where PSU QB Sean Clifford over threw his receivers and forced throws to Freiermuth when he was double covered. If Penn State can find a way to clean that up from Clifford, the result can be much different.
Defense
Franklin and Brent Pry (Defensive Coordinator) had a very successful 2019 campaign. Penn State finished #8 nationally in points allowed (16ppg), 5th in rush defense allowing 95 yards a game. Franklin and staff lose 7 starters from the successful 2019 defense, including Micah Parsons. They will have to fill voids at all levels of the defense.
Penn State will bring a aggressive stingy style of defense into Saturday nights game. With saying that, they love to play cover 1 behind a loaded box. They sell out on the run, and will make the opposing QB beat them. Vs. Indiana, they routinely put 7 guys in the box, forcing Indiana's hand. Indiana's QB Michael Penix only threw for 170 yards total with 1 turnover.
Penn State forced their hand, and kept Penix in check. Penn State ran a multitude of 3 and 4 man fronts, giving Indiana no hope of what defense they will throw at them each snap.
The one area of concern for Penn State is their cover 1 defense. They struggled to cover Indiana when in cover 1, but Penix just struggled getting it to them.
Indiana moved to an empty set in the second half to get Penn State in straight cover 1, something the Buckeyes could do with the amount of talent they have a WR/TE. Indiana started utilizing bunch sets to take advantage of Penn States man to get free releases for their WR's. This, again, is something Ohio State can do on Saturday.
Stop the run
Vs. Indiana, Penn State sold out on the run for the entire length of the game. They consistently put 7/8 defenders in the box. They used both 3 and 4 man fronts like the clip above. PSU would walk down a safety and put the OLB in the box. This helped PSU out number Indiana, and took away the RPO. PSU played man behind it, which allows them to stop the run.
Here, you'll notice that the SLB is added to the box, giving PSU 7 defenders vs Indiana's offense. Indiana has a TE in the box, giving them 6 players to block 7. You'll notice that Penn State starts to walk down their safety, since the SLB is playing the box.
Another example of Penn State adding a number to the box. Instead of walking a LB in the box, they walk down the FS who ends up cleaning up the tackle. PSU again plays man behind it to take away any sort of RPO game.
Again, using the FS in the run fit. Notice that Indiana has now added 2 TE's to help alleviate the numbers advantage PSU has in the box. With this, Indiana is now 7 on 7 and it comes down to talent.
Cover 1 Struggles
Penn State played man coverage behind the loaded box to stop the run. They played cover 1, and 2 man under to add a number to the box. With this, PSU struggled to play man. Indiana had success beating man coverage, but Penix struggled to get them the ball.
On a crucial 3rd and 4, PSU sends a 4 man pressure and play man behind it. The TE gets matched up with the saftey and wins on a skinny post.
A year ago, Ohio State had a lot of success hitting easy access throws vs a soft corner. Here, they are in off man, and Indiana hits a comeback.
Once Indiana started using stack and bunch sets, they started seeing more success. This gives WR's space to work with. In a stack set, DB's can't press man, and this gives the WR freedom to move off the line. Here is another comeback for a 1st down. Notice the stack set help both WR's get off the ball smooth.
In this example, Indiana uses a bunch set to run 3 verticals. The #2 WR does get pressed, but both the #1 and #3 WR get free clean releases. The wheel route from #3 gets a clean release and is a step ahead of the DB.
Here is the same exact concept for the score in OT. The wheel route from #3 get s clean release, and the DB's end up running into each other.
Keys to the game
The keys to the game is having a great game plan to slow down TE Freiermuth. Baron Browning has a big week ahead of him being matched up with the best TE in the country. I could see an adjustment being made where Ohio State changes the match up and puts a better pass defender on Freiermuth, or subbing in the nickle package with Proctor at the bullet.
Offensively, using formations that help with the press man like bunch, stack, etc. will help the Ohio State offense. Day will use his man beaters that consistently get good matchups. Passing schemes like y-cross, mesh, shallow cross, isolation shots. If PSU wants to play off, and play the pass then Ohio State will need to get the running game going.
PSU consistently out numbered Indiana in the run. After seeing Ohio States OL struggle vs. Nebraska, PSU might feel comfortable playing a lighter box and putting a safety back to stop the passing game. Either way, I think this one is 35-17.