Staff Predictions: Alabama

A few short months ago we were not even sure if the Ohio State Buckeyes were even going to have a 2020 football season and now by the end of the day, the Buckeyes could be national champions if they can get past Alabama in the College Football Playoff game.

There have been weeks and months where the status of the season was not known, if a game would be played this week or not, who might be able to line up for the Buckeyes or the other team.

Getting to this point is an accomplishment in the first place, but getting to this point having 60 minutes of football standing between yourself and another national championship could make this 2020 year the most unlikely of years in Ohio State football history.

The Tide opened up as a favorite and to nobody's surprise, that has not changed. But then again, the Buckeyes were an underdog going against Clemson to even get to this spot and Ohio State nearly hung half-a-hundred on the Tigers in the Sugar Bowl.

With a pair of Heisman finalists, a powerful runner and plenty of offensive firepower, there are many who think that the Buckeyes should just sit back and appreciate what they have accomplished to this point and call it a season. But you come here to play the game, and play the Buckeyes will.

Imagine how different things would have been if Ohio State had that same sort of attitude going into the 2014 championship run.

It's almost time to put the pads on and see who is better tonight, and the Buckeyes have proven time and time again, don't doubt them when they are an underdog.

How do we see this game going down? We make our final predictions of the season. And we want to thank our friends at Hague Water Conditioning who continue to support us here at BuckeyeGrove.com and their generous sponsorship of this piece is an invaluable addition to everything that we do here.

I struggled with this one. There are all sorts of reasons why Alabama would be the safe pick and potentially correct one not limited to a terrifying offense and a familiarity with the championship game. Bama has run through a 12-game season through the SEC and while it may be debatable just how tough the vaunted SEC was this year, we can all agree on one thing, it was significantly more difficult competition than the Big Ten.

Or was it?

The Big Ten's toughest opponent was the Big Ten itself, the cancellation and then the delayed start and then the over-the-top testing measures leading to many more weekly cancellations along the way, uncertainty and having to play with less than full decks.

Sure, Ohio State has only played seven games this season, but few teams have faced as much "collateral difficulties" along the way than Ohio State and its fellow Big Ten conference mates along the way.

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Nobody on the national stage wanted to give the Buckeyes much of a chance last week against Clemson (even though I did) and the Buckeyes not only won, but won in a pretty convincing fashion.

Sure, Justin Fields is going into this game at less than 100-percent, sure the Buckeyes are probably going to be less full-strength when it comes to who is available in the game in terms of a roster.

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But is NOW the time to think this 2020 season runs out of steam and the Buckeyes fall short within sight of the ultimate goal?

I don't see a lot of defense in this game, I really don't. Florida put up points as did Ole Miss. The Gators did not have a running game like Ohio State and Ole Miss was able to move via the pass and the rush, but if we are being honest, that team was one that you could not trust from possession to possession, and yet that squad came close.

Take the over, keep on believing, I am not sure how it happens, but once the clock reaches 0:00, the Buckeyes will be the last team standing. Ohio State 52, Alabama 49

There was no short supply of crow for me to eat after picking against the Buckeyes in the Sugar Bowl, a game in which Ohio State put on such a spirited performance that I thought surely I’d have to favor the Scarlet and Gray in Florida.

I, like most, was and still am swept up in the gusto of an all-time showing by Justin Fields and an impressive display by the Buckeye defensive line, which got better as the game went on against Clemson.

But it didn’t take long for new concerns to arise this week, as rumors about potential COVID-19 absences reared their ugly head once again for Ohio State.

Of course, we won’t know the extent of the damage until game day, and basing an entire prediction around hearsay would be short-sighted. However, with an opponent like Alabama –– which boasts three of the top-five Heisman finishers on offense alone –– the Buckeyes can ill-afford a hamstrung defense.

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With Heisman-winner Devonta Smith sure to make some big plays against the Ohio State secondary, and the jury still out on whether Jaylen Waddle will attempt to play as well, the Buckeyes’ best shot might just be riding their red-hot Fields-led offense as far as it will get them.

Much has been made of Nick Saban’s admission that good defense is not enough to get the job done in college football any longer, and a couple of performances by the Crimson Tide this season stand in agreement with the theory.

Alabama gave up 48 points to Ole Miss in the third week of the season, and 46 to Florida in the SEC Championship. Both teams finished the season with top 10 total offenses, but Ohio State scores more points than either of them.

With Trey Sermon looking nothing short of all-world as of late, Ohio State pieced together its finest offensive performance of the season against the best defense it’s seen in the Sugar Bowl. There’s nothing to suggest the Buckeyes won’t put up points, but they’ll have to do so at a higher pace than the Crimson Tide can muster.

It’s a race that no other team has won against Alabama this season, and as close as I was to riding with Ohio State on this one, I’m not sure the Buckeyes can do so either. Alabama 48, Ohio State 41

Over six years ago, four members of the BuckeyeGrove staff chose Alabama to take down Ohio State in the first edition of the College Football Playoff.

Everyone knows how that went.

I was only in eighth grade at the time of the 2015 Sugar Bowl upset, but this season feels eerily similar to the run Cardale Jones and the Buckeyes had.

There has been considerable doubt (from myself included) about this team’s readiness to take on the best in the country, its shortened schedule, and its consistent issues with COVID-19.

All of that was wiped away on Jan. 1, when the Buckeyes handled Clemson. Ohio State can play with the biggest names on the biggest stage, even when it has the least experience. We know that much.

However, No. 1 Alabama has been the top team in the country in every edition of the CFP rankings for a reason. It has the nation's top offense by a country mile and wiped the floor with Notre Dame in the other Playoff semifinal.

It finished with both the Heisman winner and three of the top five finishers; the combination of Najee Harris, Mac Jones, and DeVonta Smith can score with anyone in the country, even an Ohio State defense that seemed one step ahead of Clemson at all times.

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The Tide defense has had its fair share of issues, giving up over 400 yards of offense four times this season and looking susceptible to big plays through the air before taking steps forward as the year progressed.

Alabama has not seen a trio with as much big-play potential as Justin Fields, Chris Olave, and Trey Sermon. Throw Garrett Wilson into the mix and this game is primed to be a shoot-out-- a contest of which offense makes an error first.

The Buckeyes need to establish an effective run game from the jump and pressure Jones into mistakes to have a shot at a second CFP Championship.

I picked Clemson to win the Sugar Bowl, but this season feels too much like six years ago for me to make a mistake like that again. Ohio State 45, Alabama 42

It’s been some kind of journey here, hasn’t it?

No. 3 Ohio State went from having no season to now playing for a national championship, and I continue to learn more about head coach Ryan Day and his Buckeyes each week.

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Nick Saban and No. 1 Alabama know how to win. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 against AP Top 25 teams this season, Saban has the most-career wins against top-25 opponents, and they’ve been in the poll longer than any other program at 212-consecutive weeks.

The Crimson Tide have scored at least 30 points in 25-straight games, the current longest-streak in the Football Bowl Subdivision. A key reason for which is because Alabama has the best third-down conversion percentage in the NCAA at 59.3% and extends drives. If the Buckeyes and their 25th-best third-down defense can limit extended drives and keep Alabama’s offense off the field, they’ll have control of pace and momentum.

Ohio State’s offense has been explosive behind big plays, and if the Buckeyes continue to find daylight against the Crimson Tide, the game could quickly turn into a shootout. Don’t overlook Chris Olave or Jameson Williams, who caught 45+ yard touchdowns last week.

Alabama wide receiver and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith leads all Division I wide receivers in yards after catch with 847 (out of 1,647 total!), so it will be crucial for Buckeyes defenders to bring the Heisman winner down after he will surely grab his targets. I’ll be locked into his matchup with fellow All-American Shaun Wade.

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I was impressed with the Buckeyes pass-rush against No. 2 Clemson, which forced quarterback Trevor Lawrence to overthrow his targets. Ohio State must continue to blow up the pocket and force Mac Jones to scramble - which isn’t his strength behind just three net rushing yards - and it may take an unsung hero to do so.

These are college football’s winningest teams since 2008, with Alabama totaling 162 wins and Ohio State emerging in 148. Both enter with perfect, undefeated records. Decorated-veteran head coach against the emerging prodigy. This is going to be a slugfest in which I see a team fueled by redemption rising to the occasion. Ohio State 38 Alabama 31

The National Championship is finally here. The Alabama offense will present challenges to Ohio States defense. With multiple weapons as their disposal, Ohio State will have to pick their poison. Alabama attacks the intermediate part of the field in their RPO/passing game, getting the ball to their guys on the run. Ohio States strength relies in the box with stopping the run. I see Ohio State utilizing nickel personnel, and forcing Alabama to run the ball. This puts the ball right into the strength of Ohio States defense. With the Heisman winner, I see Ohio State bracketing Smith, limiting explosive plays.

Offensively, Ohio State should have much success. Alabama has yet to face an offense as explosive and balanced as Ohio States. Teams have hurt Alabama towards the hash and sideline taking advantage of their corners. Alabama will play a majority of cover 3 and cover 1, and are very weak to 3x1 formations. This leads me to believe that Ryan Day will utilize 3x1 formations and single up Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson on the backside of trips. This will create 1 on 1 situations that Ohio State will win. Alabama has also struggled with FIB (formation into the boundary) runs. Ole Miss had a lot of success running zone concepts to the boundary, and I see Ohio State doing their same. This is going to be a high scoring affair. Ohio State 52, Alabama 49

Last week, I predicted that Ohio State would lose against Clemson for a couple of reasons. Those reasons were that I was not confident in the defense being able to stop a Trevor Lawrence-led Tigers offense, and I had reservations about Justin Fields based on how he performed in two of the previous three games.

Well, I was proven wrong on both fronts as the Buckeyes held Dabo Swinney's team to 28 points, and Fields proved why he is deserving of being a top-three overall pick in this upcoming NFL Draft with an epic performance.

I know Alabama is going to be a tougher matchup for Ohio State, but how much better are they than Clemson?

In hindsight, Alabama's victories this season have not been overly impressive. Sure, they beat a then third-ranked Georgia Bulldogs squad by 17, but UGA would go on to lose to Florida and narrowly squeak out a victory against Cincinnati in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Speaking of Florida, the Gators lost three games in their 2020 campaign, including an ugly home loss to a short-handed LSU team that was 3-5 at the time, and they were blown out by Oklahoma in their final game of the season.

I lay all this out because the Crimson Tide may be seen as this juggernaut that can't be stopped, but I'm not seeing any signature wins on their schedule; by the way, they won against Notre Dame by 17 points while Clemson, which Ohio State just beat in convincing fashion, had beaten the Fighting Irish by 24 points.

I've seen the Buckeyes lose three games to cancelations, have to dig deep against Indiana and Northwestern to win much-needed matchups, and crushed a team that has a quarterback who will be the No. 1 overall pick in April. Monday may be the first time Alabama deals with any adversity this season, while this Ohio State team has been there countless times before.

I envision this game being close until the very end, but Justin Fields will make one more play than Mac Jones will to lead the Buckeyes to their third championship of the century. Alabama 38, Ohio State 44

There's no doubting Alabama provides a greater challenge than Clemson.

Where I said Ohio State could have the biggest edge over the Tigers was on both lines, and that prediction came up accurate. Thing is, both of Alabama's lines are better than Clemson's.

First-team All-American Alex Leatherwood is the Crimson Tide's senior and anchor for the offensive line at left tackle, and while the team's other first-team All-American, redshirt senior center Landon Dickerson, won't be playing Monday, first-team All-SEC guard Deonte Brown will.

The Ohio State front seven's played dominant football the past few games, but this is the best offensive line it's faced. And if the Buckeyes' defensive line isn't at full strength for whatever reason -- that adds to the challenge.

On the flip side, with Leatherwood out it's my opinion that Ohio State has the best offensive line in college football this season. Even if starting left guard Harry Miller is still out, two backups proved very capable against Clemson. There's depth in case someone is or goes down.

But it's gonna be tougher to move many of Alabama's defensive line pieces. Redshirt sophomore Christian Barmore picked up seven sacks and a first-team All-SEC nod this year, and sophomore defensive tackle DJ Dale is a 307-pound brute in the middle.

The trench battles are what I'm looking forward to most from this game.

Where most other eyes will be turned though, I'm sure, is the passing attacks. The two starting quarterbacks, Justin Fields and Mac Jones, have both been Heisman Finalists at some point in their careers. Fields is fresh off one of the best performances by an Ohio State player in recent memory, and with bruised rather than broken ribs should be effective come Monday.

Both passing defenses rank outside the top 75 nationally, and are both facing offenses that are among the nation's best in said area of play.

This game could turn into a shootout fast, especially with the receiving weapons on both sides. Heisman winner DeVonta Smith and 100-yard-per-game receiver Jaylen Waddle for Alabama. Multi-touchdown CFP semifinal grabber Chris Olave and athletic slot threat Garrett Wilson for Ohio State.

Then there's the Buckeyes' emerging tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell, and the Crimson Tide's breakout wideout John Metchie.

This is before getting into the running game, which features first-team All-American Najee Harris at running back for Alabama and Trey Sermon, who's set the single-game and two-game record for rushing yards at Ohio State across the Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff semifinal games.

It's a clash of Titans too close to call. But I didn't pick against Ohio State in the Semis and I'm sure as hell not betting against a storybook ending to its tumultuous season now. Ohio State 49 Alabama 45

January 1, 2015. Nick Saban awakened in a New Orleans hotel room that day only to have one of the worst days of his life. His heavily favored Alabama Crimson Tide were supposed to steamroll the Ohio State Buckeyes and their third-string quarterback. We all know what happened that night. We saddened Nick and the people of Alabama. That pleased me. That didn’t please Nick. He’s since figured out ways to consistently reach the College Football Playoff, win national championships, churn out Heisman Trophy winners and attract big name recruits. Nick is still salty for what we did to him that January night.

Here we are six years later. Nick can finally have his revenge on Ohio State. He’s got another Heisman winner, projected top draft picks, a stud quarterback and an impressive offense. His defense looks outstanding and it appears there’s nothing that’s going to stop his team. Nick, meet Ryan Day. He’s going to be your worst enemy this decade. He’s already saddened Dabo and he’s pissed off the entire Big Ten. What Ryan has is something special. He’s assembled a physically and mentally tough team, many of them guys I’ve recruited, who want to make a statement on the national stage.

Here’s your spoiler alert, fans. We certainly won’t shut Alabama out. Their offense will score, and score a lot, against us. However Alabama is about to sense what a true tempo offense looks like. This will negate a lot of stuff their defense can do against us. Guys named Olave and Wilson should be frequently open and a mobile quarterback who can do it all this year will still gain chunks of yards despite some really sore ribs. Defensively, it’ll come to us making more stops than them and forcing their quarterback to making some dumb throws. My advice to you: take a nap on Monday. This will be a very long game with a ton of twists but by early Tuesday, you’ll be extremely, extremely pleased. Ohio State 52, Alabama 45