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Published Nov 26, 2020
Tale of the Tape: Illinois
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Kevin Noon  •  DottingTheEyes
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DISCLAIMER: This was written before the news about "possible" positive COVID tests emerged from the Ohio State side of things. This piece was not changed to reflect any potential roster change if the game is played on Saturday.

Generally when we start the piece, we find the most interesting factoid that we can about the upcoming game, look at it from all angles and then just jump into the standard categories that we normally cover here.

Going into the sixth (we wrote one for Maryland, the Terps did not comply and allow a game to be played) edition of the Tale of the Tape, maybe we are just losing interest here, maybe we are not taking this game seriously enough, or maybe there just really is not a fact that we are all that excited about.

We have a few things that will either reside in our weekly picks or in Behind Enemy Lines, and we don't want to repeat ourselves here with some of the historical numbers in this series. When you look at the Illini, they are just not the same team that shocked many in the Big Ten last season, making a bowl game and looking like a team on the rise.

We can all talk about the impact that COVID has had on this team versus that team and if we are being truthful with ourselves, there is not a team that was not impacted by this, just with the loss of the spring practice season, an uncertain summer and then a disjointed fall run-up. Then when you couple the Big Ten and its ultimate lack of foresight of cancelling and then un-cancelling a season, and that creates more chaos in the preparation for a season.

This season the Illini are allowing about 10 more points per game than they are scoring through five. That is significantly different than the previous two years, but let's not forget that teams lost three non-conference games, so the perceived "level of opponent" is up this year, even if many feel that the Big Ten is way down across the board.

The Illini have almost 300 more rushing yards this year than last year through five games, but even with this explosion on the ground, the Illini had almost 200 more than in 2020 two years ago, in 2018.

With that, the passing numbers are down, but that also really can be attributed to the fact that the Illini have had a revolving door at quarterback due to injuries, COVID and other things. Brandon Peters may be the best option, but he is no Michael Penix.

And lastly, the Illini would probably fare better if they held on to the ball a little bit longer, with an average time of possession of only 27:52 this season. But strangely enough, that is still up from 2019 when the Illini held on to the ball just 26:37 through the first five games.

What does this all mean?

As we said, we are just having a hard time finding anything that really moves us when looking at the Illini this year, outside of talking about a wooden turtle. Have you heard about the wooden turtle? I think it's name is Illibuck.

Ohio State Defense vs. Illinois Offense 
Ohio StateStatRankIllinoisStatRank

Rushing Defense

98.5 YPG

12th

Rushing Offense

222.4 YPG

20th

Pass Eff. Defense

145.65

85th

Passing Offense

159.4 YPG

113th

Scoring Defense

26.0 PPG

42nd

Scoring Offense

21.8 PPG

101st

Ohio State Defensive Backs vs. Illinois QB/WR/TE

Well, this is the spot where everyone is expecting me to lambast the Ohio State secondary, the Ohio State defensive coaches and anyone who has ever seen the Ohio State secondary play. Look, I know last week was not good enough, at points it was downright bad. But I have not been in this business as long as I have by just calling out 18 to 22-year-old kids in a direct manner, the way that some keyboard warriors would love for me to do. Something needs to be done here, however. Starters are starters for a reason and until younger guys can prove that they need to start, what are you going to do? Plenty of attrition during the offseason, either by way of the NFL Draft or the legal system saw even more movement here than we are used to talking about. Is Shaun Wade at his best position playing outside? He was fantastic as a slot corner, but is moving Shaun back there (which really would go against the reason he came back in the first place) and trying someone else outside the right answer? Wade still seems to be built to be an elite slot corner, and at the end of the day, winning games at this level is the goal. Is Ohio State being stubborn with its insistence on playing one-high safety? If that one safety is having a hard time reacting properly, isn't that just putting everyone else in a bad position? What about names like Ryan Watts, Latham Ransom, Tyreke Johnson, Bryson Shaw, Ronnie Hickman, Lejond Cavazos and Cam Martinez? Could we see one, two, more of them see some run this week? If things go according to plan, there should be time to roll some players in-and-out, but at the risk of taking snaps away from an already shaky secondary. I am sure the meetings on the defensive side of the ball have been tense as every person who sets foot in the WHAC on a regular basis is more upset about this than the most ardent message board poster out there. Indiana's 491 passing yards is the 4th most ever against the Buckeyes, and the most since Purdue threw for 497 in 1985. Who leads the way? Illinois threw for 621 in 1980, but have not fear, Dave Wilson is not suiting up this week for the Illini.

When it comes to the Illinois side of things, it is a lot easier to just talk numbers and names and less about overall big pictures, because one, nobody here really is that interested in a mile-wide view of the Illini and two, we are here to talk about Ohio State. Three different quarterbacks have attempted at least 20 passes for the Illini this season but expect to see Brandon Peters under center this week, after making his first start since the start of the season last week. Coran Taylor is his understudy and Taylor actually leads the team with three passing TDs, as each of the two have played in two games, while Isaiah Williams is the third option and has played in parts of three games. None of the Illinois QBs are passing above the 60-percent mark, Peters is the best at 59-percent. Peters has just one touchdown pass, but as you will come to find out, this is more of a running team, so fans of old school Big Ten football will like that idea, at least on paper, maybe not as much on execution. Illinois is led in its receiving corps by Josh Imatorbhebhe and his 15 receptions for 215 yards and two scores. That is half of the Illinois receiving touchdown haul with Brian Hightower and Daniel Imatorbhebhe each having one to round out the totals. Daniel Barker is second on the team with 12 receptions and 174 yards and will have to be looked after, but there is not really a Jahan Dotson, Ty Fryfogle, anyone who can just take over a game on his own. If Illinois is going to be successful in the throw game, it is going to be a death by 1,000 paper cuts method as this is not a real deep receiver group.

Now, I am going to the super-rare third paragraph for a section because people have told me I need to pick an "edge" like I used to back in the old HTML version of this story, and I feel like I should explain myself here. There are going to be people who think that Ohio State should be a five-star underdog at this position under any circumstances, but I question those people by saying, "Who exactly is going to be a problem in this game?". That does not mean the Illini will be unable to move the ball through the air, but as I said earlier, there is not that top of the page type of receiver here and you better believe that practices have been pretty brutal this week (as much as you can go in COVID times) and we should see some improvement. So, I am picking OSU with the edge here and if Illinois throws for 250 yards and three scores on Saturday, I will have to eat a big helping of humility pie.

Edge: Ohio State two stars

Ohio State Linebackers vs. Illinois Running Backs

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