Staff Predictions: Minnesota

To say that the Ohio State versus Minnesota series is one-sided would be an understatement. The Buckeyes have dropped one game to Minnesota since a 35-31 loss in 1981in Minneapolis.

The lone loss? That took place in 2000 when one-time Ohio State linebacker and assistant coach Glen Mason led his Gophers into Columbus and Ron Johnson had eight receptions for 163 yards and a key touchdown. Ohio State would only find the end zone once when Steve Bellisari hit Darnell Sanders to cut the lead to 23-17. It would not matter as Minnesota would go on to win 29-17, the first win in Columbus for the Gophers since 1949.

Since then?

In the last 10 meetings, Minnesota has finished within one score just twice, been held to one score three times and shutout once.

The last time these two teams played was in 2015, also in Columbus (thank you Big Ten scheduling computer) a game where Cardale Jones stepped into the starting role as J.T. Barrett was serving a one-game suspension from the team. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 114 yards and a score while Jones was very pedestrian at quarterback with a 12-22 game for 187 yards and a score along with four sacks as the Buckeyes won a ho-hum 28-14 game.

None of that matters moving into Saturday's game as the Buckeyes look to stay unbeaten and improve their record to 7-0 on the season and keep at the top of the Big Ten race.

Will the Buckeyes bounce back from an up-and-down performance last week against Indiana and look smoother this week or will the Gophers be able to exploit some reoccurring issues that the Buckeyes have not found a fix for yet? We make our picks.

I am calling my shot earlier in the week than I usually do because basketball season is rapidly approaching and my time is getting split between both sports starting this week. Thankfully, I have already started studying Minnesota and there are some interesting points when you look at this 'vaunted' Minnesota defense.

It was great against non-league foes, did a great job of keeping New Mexico State, Fresno State and Miami (Ohio) largely off the board. Then a funny thing happened when the calendar turned to Big Ten play. The Gophers started giving up points in bunches. And we are not talking about to the elites of the Big Ten but rather Maryland and Iowa (a team that is more known for being defensively solid and offensively competent).

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Nathan Stanley went and looked like Kurt Warner last week throwing for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns. Are you going to try and tell me that Dwayne Haskins won't be able to match that, at least?

Iowa was not able to run the ball against the Gophers, but Maryland did, to the tune of 315 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries. The Ohio State run game has not been great this year but should be able to move the ball on this defense, unless Minnesota sells out to stop the run at all costs and at that point, Haskins may finally set that single-game passing record that he came so close to against Indiana.

The equalizer will be the status of Jonathon Cooper and Malik Harrison, in terms of how many points the Ohio State defense will give up. I am just of the mindset of giving any team two touchdowns out of principle until the Ohio State defense figures out how to stop the big play, but I am not giving the Gophers much more than that in this one. Ohio State 52 Minnesota 17

Ohio State faces a Minnesota team with a comparable S & P+ statistical profile to Indiana. The Gophers have a similar overall rank (57th for Minnesota; 55 for Indiana). Like Indiana, Minnesota has a good defense (16th in S & P+). But they have a much weaker offense (111th), and the Buckeyes should be more focused after a full week at home.

FULTON ANALYSIS: Uneven

This should provide the Ohio State defense another opportunity to limit the explosive plays. This has been the main problem for the Buckeye defense, as they have only six points total on the 49 drives where they haven't allowed a play of longer than 15 yards. Unfortunately, the defense may be even thinner due to injury.

The Minnesota defense will likely provide the Ohio State offense another opportunity to address how they handle overloaded run fronts, particularly in short yardage. Look for Ohio State to try to throw the football more in those situations, before returning to getting the run game fully on-track. Ohio State 41 Minnesota 16

Last week's sluggish start was a bit predictable given the emotions of the previous week and some of the personnel issues on defense with the injuries on the defensive line and Isaiah Pryor's first half suspension.

But I'm actually going to go in the opposite direction this week and think the Buckeyes will answer the bell. While the defense is still banged up and could be short a few players, I still like that matchup for the Buckeyes who will be facing true freshman starters at both quarterback and right tackle for the Gophers. This is a young Minnesota offense that I'm not sure will be built to exploit some of the weaknesses in the Ohio State defense like Indiana was able to do in the first half last week.

VISITOR LIST: Minnesota

On the other side of the ball, Dwayne Haskins and the passing game were on the money last week. The conditions will be colder on Saturday and less ideal than a week ago, but I think the offense will continue to put up big numbers and the Buckeyes will get off to a better start than they did a week ago. Ohio State 45 Minnesota 13

If Ohio State's defense doesn't look good in this game... it's officially time to start getting concerned, folks.

Minnesota's offense ranks 81st in terms of scoring, 94th in rushing, 100th in passing and 114th in terms of total yards. That's out of 128 teams.

Ouch.

I've heard coach P.J. Fleck is having his players watch Miracle (one of my favorite sports flicks) this week and comparing the Buckeyes to the Russians, themselves to the U.S.A. Miracle is right. Minnesota's gonna need one. Ever the superstitious one, I'll knock on wood... but I can't see this contest being close.

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If the Golden Gophers make this a game, it'll be because their defense keeps them alive. They do rank 22nd in yards allowed nationally, so they seem capable. Containing junior linebacker and pass rush specialist Carter Coughlin is key for Ohio State, the man holds five of Minnesota's eight sacks on the season. All-arounders Thomas Barber and Blake Cashman, the top two tacklers on the team, round out the linebacking corps nicely.

There's a detriment though... that defense simply doesn't force enough turnovers to beat a team with vastly superior talent like the Buckeyes. Their 1.6 a game is 57th nationally, which isn't bad, but it's not enough when the offense gives away 2.2 (-3 margin through five games ain't good, y'all). Ohio State 49 Minnesota 10

As the Buckeyes enter the second half of their season, Ohio State takes on the 3-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers. You can bet that P.J. Fleck is going to have his players ready and "rowing the boat" down Olentangy River into Ohio Stadium for Saturday's noon game.

The interesting thing to point out is that this is a Gopher team that is somewhat of an oddity on offense. They use a plethora of bodies in the running game including but not limited to, Bryce Williams, Mohamed Ibrahim, Rodney Smith and Seth Green. All have more than 20 carries on the year with Green leading the way in rushing touchdowns with five.

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The Gophers are led by true freshman walk-on quarterback Zack Annexstad who is completing just 52 percent of his passes for eight touchdown passes and five interceptions. Annexstad will have a few weapons to throw to at receiver with Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell.

This will be a test for the Buckeye defense to put it together against an offense that really isn't that effective, while Dwayne Haskins and the Ohio State offense will go up against a Top-20 defense and look to keep rolling on a dominant pace. I think the Gophers hang in there for the first quarter and a half, but too much Haskins and an improving defensive effort with the Buckeyes winning comfortably. Ohio State 48 Minnesota 13

The Buckeyes continue to march through the easy stretch of the schedule. Urban Meyer must continue to get these guys up for the sleepiest of games, and this noon tilt is the snoozer on the schedule. Minnesota will be a sneaky test with former Ohio State GA PJ Fleck coming town a couple of years after bringing Western Michigan into town. Meyer has been emphasizing the need to get the zone blocking corrected prior to Michigan State, so our guards have had him breathing down their necks all week. Getting J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber going is a big deal this week.

Defensively, the big plays have got to stop. It is mostly a scheme and effort issue, but when it rears its ugly head it is completely awful. We have given up more huge plays (70+ yard gains) this season then we had in a number of seasons combined. It is our largest concern going forward, along with simply getting our guys back to a serviceable level of health. Guys are beat up, but it’s football, but Meyer has been smart about backing off some of the amounts of reps in practice since the cumulative effect has been pretty noticeable. This will be a big week for the back seven. Minnesota has a TE/H-Back who has had a great year thus far (goal line running back at times too), and the linebackers have been challenged to shut him down this week. On to the next… Ohio State 49 Minnesota 7

The Gophers come to town and are going to give it their all-in front of what will be a sleepy crowd at the Shoe, but our goal is to not look like Bill Murray in Caddyshack. I think Dwayne Haskins will continue his march to New York, as it has been a big point to get him there from within (I am honestly shocked that Coach Meyer has never had a Buckeye invited to the Heisman. If that was a prop bet in 2012, I’d have lost big on it). I look for Thayer and Isaiah to have a good test with Carter Coughlin and his 5 sacks coming to town, so I’m all for them facing better and better DEs knowing Chase Winovich and Rashan Gary loom at the end of November.

Defensively, I look for our DL to continue to carry us and keep grinding along up front. Facing a giant true freshman at RT, I guarantee that we will dial up some exotics in the pressure and blitz game to get him confused and keep him from blocking the DE directly in front of him. We will have a giant edge there with whoever we have at DE, so that man need to win. Looking forward to see if we can limit the big plays as well, as it is a major issue and will only be amplified as we face teams with talent closer to ours. Luckily, Minnesota is not on our level, so we continue our survive and advance mode. Ohio State 42 Minnesota 14

In years past we’ve seen Ohio State teams struggle against a far less superior team at this point in the season. Not this team, not the team with Dwayne Haskins leading them.

Ohio State gets Minnesota at home in a game that will never be close even when the score says 0-0. I expect the offense to come out firing, and the defense to be hitting on all cylinders.

Haskins has dominated all season, and there will be absolutely no signs of him slowing down this week. He will throw for 300+ yards as well as at least 3 touchdowns. I’m feeling like this will be a Mike Weber week. The RBs will combine for 150+ rushing yards, but it will be Weber who finds the end zone multiple times.

The over under on this game is 60, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buckeyes hit it themselves. For all you gamblers out there, I would absolutely take the over and be prepared for a ton of scoring from the Ohio State offense. Ohio State will easily cover the -29.5 spread as well. Ohio State 56 Minnesota 10

Minnesota is the home of such delicacies as cheese curds and the Jucy Lucy, a burger that contains hot cheese that explodes all over the place and burns your mouth. One thing that Minnesota isn’t home to... a decent college football team. The Golden Gophers are a team we used to play every season but ever since stupid schools like Penn State, Nebraska, Maryland and Stupid Rutgers entered the league, we don’t play them that much. Minnesota plays its games in the Big Ten West division, also known as Suck Central. Our first of three straight games against Suck Central schools is against those Gophers.

The Gophers are coached by Zippy, the spastic little crazy man who thinks rowing a boat will be the success to winning a game in the Twin Cities. While that philosophy might work for a MAC school, that doesn’t fit the culture of the Big Ten or even Suck Central. Zippy was a graduate assistant at Ohio State in 2006 and wears a tie out of respect for Jim Tressel... so it’ll be old home week for him. Sadly Zippy’s homecoming will end with another loss.

The biggest news of the week is watching their 6-foot-9, 400-pound offensive lineman take the field. That’s a sideshow. The biggest show you’ll see this week is my team figuring out how to run the football better in a spread offense. Defensively, my cornerbacks and safeties have learned how to take better angles during practice and actually cover opposing receivers without getting called for pass interference. This is a week of improvement and you’ll see that on both sides of the ball.

At the end of the day, Zippy’s boat will likely sink in one of their state’s 10,000 lakes and Golden Gopher fans will harken for those glory days the team had under Coach Jerry Kill. Ohio State 55 Minnesota 10