Staff Predictions: Michigan State

This game is interesting because of what we don't know, much more than what we do know.

We do know that the Buckeyes are better than a three-touchdown favorite in this game, what we do know is that the Buckeyes are undefeated but have only played in four games and have not played in a week after their second cancellation of the season. We also know that Michigan State is coming off of its second upset win of the season, this time against Northwestern as the Spartans were about a two-touchdown underdog.

What we don't know however is first and foremost, will this game actually take place? Last week's game against Illinois was cancelled on Friday, less than 15 hours away from when the game was supposed to kick off. Who will be there for the Buckeyes and who won't, if this game takes place? How will the Buckeyes react after having to shut down the facility for a "pause" and while it was a short one, these players are used to routines and nothing has been routine over the past week. And how will Michigan State react? Upsets happen throughout a football season but it is not often that a team can put that type of effort together in back-to-back weeks, and 2020 is making that even more difficult as trends of normalcy seem to be a thing of the past.

Ohio State is on a four-game winning streak in this series after the Spartans had managed to win three of five from 2011 through 2015. A lot has changed since 2015 in terms of the fortunes of the Spartans and now with a new head coach in place, would a game that would have seemed like an easy one to pick just a month ago be that easy?

We make our picks and hope that we have a game to compare our work against.

I did not decide until Tuesday if we were even going to bother writing one of these out with the "pause" of activities but after it was announced that practices would resume, I felt good enough to write out a prediction and demand one from the rest of the staff.

On face value, this should be a no-brainer, the Buckeyes have all of the offense in the world, the Spartans have none. Even if the Spartans (and maybe the weather) are able to slow down the Buckeyes to a degree, can Michigan State score enough points against a 50-percent Ohio State offensive effort?

Michigan State has not broken the 30-point barrier this season but has come close a couple of times, meaning that the Buckeyes should probably just get to at least 35 points in this game, to erase all doubt.

Tale of the Tape: Michigan State

It feels like the problems coming out of the Indiana game are about a million miles away and took place a million years ago. Nobody is talking about the secondary issues or anything of that nature, they just want to play this game.

Over the course of the last two games, the Spartans have put up a combined 298 yards passing over the last eight quarters. That is probably not going to get it done against Ohio State. And this does not mean that Michigan State is some sort of offensive juggernaut on the ground, The Spartans have been held to less than 60 yards on the ground in three games, broken the 100-yard plateau twice and have a high-water mark of 195 yards rushing. With all of that, there has been a grand total of one rushing touchdown all year, and that was in week three of the Big Ten season.

But we really don't know who will be out there for Ohio State, by design or by real world problems bigger than football itself. It would be easy to look at this game with a full range of weapons on both sides of the ball for Ohio State, but we just can't do that and with Ohio State not putting out much in the way of information on individuals, we are left to some speculation, some sleuthing and then some blind draws.

Maybe Michigan and Northwestern went into their games with Michigan over-confident and both came out the other side with losses. With Ohio State having a second game disappear off the schedule this season, the Buckeyes will be even more grateful for the opportunity to play, there won't be any chance that this team looks past the Spartans and if we are being honest, the Buckeyes 2s and 3s would win this game pretty easily in a vacuum. Provided this game is played. Ohio State 35, Michigan State 10

There are a lot of factors at play in this one, and for once, several of them do not favor the Buckeyes.

Not only will Ohio State be without head coach Ryan Day, who tested positive for COVID-19 at the end of last week, but for all we know, the Buckeyes might have to play without any number of key roster pieces.

We likely won’t know which players are serving their 21-day mandatory absence until Saturday morning, and the names that appear on that inactive list could certainly range from nonfactor to relied upon starter.

Regardless of the absences, Ohio State should have the talent to step past Michigan State anyway, but last week’s outbreak has the potential to even the playing field to some extent.

MORE: Weird week for Ryan Day

The Spartans are coming off a win against then-No. 8 Northwestern last week, picking up some much needed steam entering a matchup with the Buckeyes, but Ohio State has been on couch duty for two of the past three weekends as COVID has ravaged one program or another in the Big Ten.

On paper though, the statistics still overwhelmingly favor the Buckeyes. Have questions about Ohio State’s defense? Well, Rocky Lombardi and the Spartan offense have the worst scoring offense in the entire conference. Can MSU limit Justin Fields and the Buckeye offense? Well, it’s allowed an average of 31 points per game to much less explosive groups around the Big Ten.

Under normal circumstances, I would foresee a Buckeye blowout. But there’s just too many variables going into Saturday for me to think it won’t be a closer affair than many might be anticipating. Ohio State 34, Michigan State 21.

The Spartans and Buckeyes meet in the cold of December and with COVID-19 questions surrounding the Buckeyes.

Michigan State has beaten Ohio State the most of any Big Ten team since 2011 with three victories. Mel Tucker is coming off the biggest win in his budding tenure as Michigan State’s head coach over then-No. 8 Northwestern, so there's some momentum.

Ohio State will have plenty of experience in the absence of Ryan Day as Larry Johnson holds down head coaching duties this week. Kerry Coombs and Kevin Wilson will provide critical input to keep the Buckeyes rolling.

Prior to last weekend’s win, the Spartans were held to just seven points against Iowa and then-No. 10 Indiana. Ohio State, on the other hand, is coming off 607 yards of offense against the same Hoosiers’ defense that limited Michigan State to 191 yards.

I expect the Buckeyes to maintain a strong and present rushing attack this week. The Spartans have a talented defensive back in Shakur Brown, who is averaging 1.8 pass breakups per game. Ohio State has too many weapons to be too worried, and Garrett Wilson's 100-yard receiving streak is still active.

The depth at running back has been proven early on, and Master Teague has done a solid job taking over the reins as seen by his 169 yards last time out. The Spartans’ run defense is fifth in the Big Ten at 132 yards per game.

Without a status report nor hearing from the coaching staff prior to the game, it’s difficult to project without knowing if specific units are in, out or thin. The Buckeyes did resume organized team activities this week, and encouraging words were spoken during the Ryan Day Radio Show on 97.1 The Fan on Thursday. The Buckeyes’ depth has been noted as incredibly strong and talented, and should still take care of business. Ohio State 35 Michigan State 13

Facing an Ohio State team that appears to be somewhat in a state of disarray, Saturday seems to present the perfect time for Michigan State to strike.

Ohio State is returning from a weekend hiatus after a shaky performance against Indiana. Ryan Day won’t be coaching the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, Mel Tucker’s side is hungry after pulling off a massive upset over undefeated Northwestern.

The Spartans are going to muck this game up as much as possible. This is a team that holds two very solid wins, yet has no real offensive identity-- it only scores 18 points per game, bottom-10 in the FBS.

Rocky Lombardi has been awful in four of his five games this season. He does not complete many passes and turns the ball over frequently; seeing Lombardi in the backfield gives the Ohio State defensive backs a nice chance to take a step in the right direction.

The Spartans will still take plenty of shots downfield, however, and have a pair of deep threats in Jalen Nailor and Ricky White.

The biggest issue with the Michigan State offense isn’t Lombardi right now. It’s the 2.7 yards per carry the Spartans are averaging on the ground-- the worst in the conference. Unless Rocky is consistently hitting his targets and burning a questionable Ohio State secondary over the top, this offense is not scaring anyone in the Big Ten.

Physical defense is what created the Spartans’ upset win over Northwestern. In its two victories, Michigan State has had success stopping the run and forcing just enough incompletions to sneak away.

Justin Fields is going to bounce back from his uncharacteristic afternoon against Indiana and no one can truly stop Ohio State’s core of receivers. To give itself any plausible chance, the Michigan State defensive line has to limit Master Teague and prevent big plays through the air by pressuring Fields every time he drops back into the pocket.

Unless Lombardi morphs into prime Michael Penix and Michigan State hits Fields on every play, this game should not be very competitive-- even with the turmoil swirling around Columbus. Ohio State 38, Michigan State 17

Michigan State has been an unpredictable team so far this season.

The Spartans started off by dropping their home opener against Rutgers, then went on the road to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Michigan State followed up with two consecutive blowout losses against Iowa and Indiana, but then got a big-time victory over top-10 Northwestern.

So, with an upcoming home game against a top-four program following a huge win, what Spartans team are we going to see on Saturday?

In my opinion, we are going to see the one we saw against the Hawkeyes and the Hoosiers.

Ohio State's obvious weakness on defense has been in their secondary. The Buckeyes' defensive backs are allowing 291 passing yards per game, and their opponents are completing just over 63 percent of the passes thrown against them.

Fortunately for Ohio State, they are going up against a program that has not been dynamic through the air this year. Michigan State, led by signal caller Rocky Lombardi, has averaged 233 passing yards per contest, and Lombardi has a 54.1 percent completion percentage in 2020.

The passing attack was a crucial factor in Indiana being able to keep it close with the Buckeyes two weeks ago, but so was their ability to turn the ball over and gain extra possessions, specifically forcing picks. The Hoosiers arrived into that matchup with 10 interceptions in four games and caused Justin Fields to throw his first three INTS of the season.

Michigan State has picked off five passes in five games, with four of those coming in two games. With a week off to learn from his mistakes and recover from arguably the worst game of his collegiate career, I expect Fields to be more careful with the ball this weekend.

Having a high-powered passing game on offense and forcing turnovers from Fields are two major needs if you want to beat Ohio State this year, but MSU most likely won't find success in either of those areas on Saturday. Ohio State 45, Michigan State 24

Hoping above all else this time a prediction I right will actually be applicable.

All jokes aside, should Ohio State clear all precautions and play this week against Michigan State, I don't see the Spartans providing a challenge for the Buckeyes beyond the middle of the second quarter.

There may be some rust to shake off, and perhaps the mobility of redshirt junior quarterback Rocky Lombardi can create problems for Ohio State's defense in the mold of Indiana quarterback Michael Penix or Nebraska's tandem of Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey.

Less practice time to prepare for such challenges won't be helpful either.

But Michigan State is in full rebuild. I know it upset top 10 Northwestern last week, but the Buckeyes are an entirely different offensive beast. Assuming junior quarterback Justin Fields and at least one of the electric wide receiver tandem of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave aren't out due to COVID-19 this week, Ohio State's No. 7 total offense won't be stopped by the nation's No. 44 defense.

And the Spartans' offense? There was a reason they tried a new quarterback in desperation mode against Indiana.

Out of 128 teams in the country, Michigan State lands 117th in terms of scoring.

But don't worry, in total offense it's No. 112.

The Spartans have a problem running the football, one of just eight teams in the country averaging less than 100 yards per game. Only two teams average less than their 2.7 yards per carry.

Redshirt junior running back Connor Heyward hasn't provided any explosion out of the backfield and the offensive line has been mostly maligned all year.

Teams that contend with this Ohio State team have offenses that can win a shootout. This isn't one of them. Ohio State 48 Michigan State 17

There has been a lot of unknowns about the 2020 season for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Going into Michigan State week, I don’t see that changing. Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker comes from the Nick Saban coaching tree where on defense they run cover 3 rip/Liz match. This means they will start in 2 high, and spin down to 1 before the ball is snapped. They are a primarily a 4 down team, and do bring some unique blitz concepts. So, this is a week to clean up blitz communication for the Ohio State offensive line. This is also a week to get more reps with the running game and get Teague into a rhythm. With only 4 games under his belt, he needs more carries and game experience. With the defensive philosophy Tucker brings, I expect the offense to use their base run game (mid zone, inside zone) away from where the safety will spin from. In the passing attack, with a 1 high shell, Ohio State will use their cover 3 beaters (sail, 4 verts, flood concepts) to create a high/low on the flat defender.

Offensively, Michigan State has been very inconsistent. They are a 11 personnel offense that showed some signs of life vs. Michigan State. The running game was a big part of their success as they were able to effectively chunk Northwestern's D. Michigan State and their offense ran both zone and gap concepts, along with a relatively simple passing game. If the running game is nipped, I don’t see this offense having very much success. Ohio State's defense has been extraordinarily vs the run, so I see this as a successful outing for the defense.

Ohio State 49, Michigan State 14

2020 is the year we all want to end but the football season we don’t want to stop. It seems that every time we have some momentum, a game gets canceled or a kid named Penix throws for a zillion yards after we were beating the ninth-ranked team 35-7 in the third quarter. Next we allegedly will be taking on the Michigan State Spartans.

That Team Up North State displeases me. We know their history of saddening us late in the season. The only thing that concerns me about Sparty is the weather. Snow is always the equalizer and I certainly hope they know how to clear off their field. If they did their job, we should put up at least 40 points on the scoreboard. If they don’t, things could get dicey.

Here’s what I’m certain of... our defense has gotten better the last two weeks. You’ll see an improved pass rush and better play from our defensive backs. Offensively you’ll see the same thing... balanced rushing and passing. I won’t tell you who’s going to have a big game because some guys are staying in Columbus to de-COVID themselves but we’ll be more than good. Ohio State 42, Michigan State 7