Staff Predictions: Clemson

We have said all that can be said before the game, there is not any time left for a last stat, figure or narrative, let's get to the game already.

Buckeyes versus Clemson. Now go.

How do we see this game going down? Let's get to the picks. And we want to thank our friends at Hague Water Conditioning who continue to support us here at BuckeyeGrove.com and their generous sponsorship of this piece is an invaluable addition to everything that we do here.

I normally write my prediction five or six days before the game and just ride with it because when you cover this Ohio State team, you are generally predicting a win and it is more of a matter of just hitting the score, more than agonizing about who is going to win the game.

And then there is this game.

I think I have been pretty set on my score for several days but I could see either team hitting that number, so I have been going back-and-forth on this one.

This Ohio State team has not played a complete game this season and there is the whole narrative about this being the week, on the biggest stage, under the brightest lights, with all of the motivation in the world. But this is also a team that has played very little football this season, and even less with a full complement of players due to COVID testing and things of that nature.

This Clemson team certainly has playmakers in Trevor Lawrence, Amari Rodgers and Travis Etienne, but where are the names on the defensive side of the ball? This team does not have that Isaiah Simmons that the Buckeyes faced last year, or the Dexter Lawrence et al defensive line that it faced in a previous year. In fact, there are more sophomores listed as starters than seniors in the Clemson depth chart.

But make no mistake, these young pups can play and it is another indication that Clemson is going to be really good for years to come, even as Lawrence heads to the NFL and the next wave of offensive players step into their roles.

This is not about 2022 or 2023, this is about right now and who is going to win Friday's game.

Ohio State is 7-1 as an underdog over its last eight games, the only loss coming last year in the Fiesta Bowl against these Clemson Tigers. Dabo Swinney has Ohio State at No. 11 on his own personal ballot for the Coaches Poll. This Ohio State team is playing the disrespect card out perfectly. Sort of like 2014.

Nobody gave Ohio State a shot against mighty Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State really had not broken through against the mighty SEC in the postseason (even if we were there for the win at the Sugar Bowl over Arkansas in Jim Tressel's final game with the Buckeyes). Clemson is 0-2 in this building in the College Football Playoff-era and while that shouldn't mean anything in terms of what "tonight" holds in store, I am trying to convince myself that the Buckeyes will win this game.

No more need to convince me, I am in. Ohio State 38, Clemson 35

On Ohio State’s best day, I have no doubt the Buckeyes can play with Clemson for four quarters of football. What concerns me, though, is that we haven’t truly seen Ohio State piece together a “best day” performance all year –– outside of a thorough whipping in East Lansing –– and the Buckeyes’ latest outing may be the most concerning of all.

Against a Clemson defense that ranks top 10 against the rush and No. 6 in total yards allowed on average, the Buckeyes cannot survive another subpar showing from quarterback Justin Fields, who put forth a career-worst effort against Northwestern in which Ohio State appeared handicapped in the passing game.

Fields will likely have top receiver Chris Olave back, which could be crucial, but the pair will need to return to their early-season form in order to keep the Tiger secondary on its heels.

But offense is not the most worrisome side of the ball for Ohio State.

Despite being No. 6 in the country against the run, the Buckeyes are No. 104 against the pass, and Ohio State has not seen a real threat through the air since Michael Penix Jr. and Indiana torched its secondary for nearly 500 yards.

If the issues in the Buckeye secondary –– and at the safety position in particular –– are not fixed, Heisman finalist Trevor Lawrence may have a field day against Kerry Coombs and company.

Clemson is not as potent a run threat as it was a season ago, but Doak Walker finalist Travis Etienne is as dynamic a pass-catcher as they come at the running back position.

In my estimation, the most pertinent questions surround Ohio State’s pass defense and the ability of Fields and company to bounce back with the potent pass game we saw early in the season. Points will be scored on both sides, but in the end, I see Clemson finishing with more, and likely by a two-score margin. Clemson 38, Ohio State 27

I’m sure many Buckeyes fans are just as eager as the Buckeyes football players themselves to finally defeat Clemson and earn redemption.

That just may be the edge that points in Ohio State’s favor.

So many Buckeyes are seeking redemption against Clemson, and have been reminded of it with the score of last season’s game up in weight rooms, practices and more. Coming off the lowest-stretch of games in his career, Justin Fields may have the biggest chip on his shoulder.

Fields has thrown five interceptions in his last three games, and hasn’t eclipsed 200 yards in his last two. He completed 30 passes against Clemson a year ago, and if the offensive line can limit the Tigers’ defense with the nation’s second-most sacks, I think Fields will perform in a much-needed way with several touchdowns, helped by the Buckeyes run game adding tempo behind its confidence high as ever.

With Chris Olave’s anticipated return, I think the passing game will open up more. I don’t want to forget about the tight ends who’ve worked wonders in protection. Perhaps Luke Farrell will peel off the line and surprise with a difference-making play.

While more games obviously result in more reps, I think Ryan Day has practiced and prepared Ohio State in such a way that the Buckeyes are in a rhythm, as seen by a game every two weeks since Nov. 7. Ohio State will put out its availability report not long before the game, but Clemson will be without offensive coordinator Tony Elliott, meaning some shuffling will go on in the Tigers’ play calling.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence played against the Buckeyes defense a year ago, but a much different one at that. Ohio State’s secondary is nearly brand new, and almost the same case with the defensive line. Tuf Borland, Baron Browning and Pete Werner combined for 12 tackles last season, and I think their experience will fly under the radar Friday night.

AND: Improvement in red zone key for Ohio State ahead of Sugar Bowl

I think early momentum will be key for Ohio State, and stopping Travis Etienne and the Tigers running game will only push Clemson to force things through the air. How cool would it be to see Shaun Wade snag his season’s third interception?

Clemson has held opponents to 17 points or less in its last three games; while Ohio State is coming off its lowest-scoring affair, it scored at least 38 points in every preceding game. The Buckeyes out-passed and out-ran the Tigers last season, and they have the potential to do it again.

Scoring efficiency will be the most important factor for Ohio State, and I foresee another competitive, close contest paved by the Buckeyes drive for redemption. Ohio State 31 Clemson 24

Following a full year of cancelations, quarantines, and general confusion, Ohio State is right back where it wanted to be.

Though another date with Clemson gives the Buckeyes a perfect opportunity to enact 365 days’ worth of revenge on Dabo Swinney, the Tigers certainly carry a clear on-field advantage heading into New Orleans.

Clemson has Trevor Lawrence back, has pushed its way through defensive issues, and is playing its most complete ball entering Friday.

Conversely, the instability and constant turmoil of Ohio State's season has yet to pass. The Buckeyes stumble into the CFP after facing just about every difficultly imaginable this year.

The skill and reputation of Lawrence is a given; he'll extend plays on the ground and make things happen through the air while limiting mistakes.

ALSO: Wade talks targeting call last year, rematch with Clemson

The future No. 1 pick heads an offense with just as many playmakers as a year ago; senior running back Travis Etienne and wide receivers Cornell Powell and Amari Rogers top the list of threats for Clemson.

Even more importantly, Swinney’s defense took a massive leap forward in the ACC Championship, against a Notre Dame offense that had previously torched the Tigers to the tune of 47 points and 518 yards less than two months earlier. Clemson allowed just 263 yards of offense in round two against the Irish.

Behind eight players with at least three sacks this season, the Tigers are going to bring relentless pressure on a struggling Justin Fields all night long. The effectiveness of Chris Olave in his return to the gridiron will be crucial in determining Fields' comfort level.

A large load will fall on the offensive line and some combination of Trey Sermon and Master Teague establishing themselves early; Clemson has allowed less than 100 rushing yards per contest this season.

Bottom line: This Clemson team is about to play game No. 12 of its season. Ohio State enters game No. 7 with more questions than answers on both sides of the ball.

This is what Ryan Day and his team have wanted since Dec. 29, 2019. They will be ready for a fight. It comes down to Ohio State’s level of preparation versus Clemson’s already-established rhythm. Clemson 30, Ohio State 24

This will be a battle of adjustments by the coaching staff and execution. Ohio States offense will be able to pick on the Clemson secondary, but they have to be able to protect it long enough for Fields to get the ball off. Clemson has the #6 defense in the country, but have been thrown on for success in 2020. This is where Ohio State will have to take advantage. DC Brent Venables will throw an array of blitz concepts and coverages at Justin Fields, and Ohio State will have to game plan for that. If we can protect Fields long enough to get the ball off, we will have the talent to take advantage of their safeties.

Ohio State's defensive staff will also have to do a great job of using a game plan where it prepares for Lawerence as a runner, and where Clemson can't take advantage of mismatches. It's all going to come down to the 1-on-1 match-ups and how each coach can scheme it up. Ohio State 28, Clemson 24

I have been going back-and-forth here over these past few days.

On the one hand, Ohio State looked like the better team in their game against Clemson a year ago and had it not been for multiple bad calls, the Buckeyes should have come out on top. Also, Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott having to miss this game because of a positive COVID-19 test is going to be a difficult last-minute adjustment for Trevor Lawrence and company.

On the other hand, this is a different Buckeyes team than we saw last year, and they're more vulnerable on defense compared to 2019. I certainly don't see them preventing Clemson's offense from scoring for the first 27 minutes of game time like they did a year before.

In the end, however, I just cannot see Ohio State's defense stopping the Tigers from scoring over 35 points in this one. I see Clemson pass catcher Amari Rodgers having a field day against this secondary, and Travis Etienne will certainly be more productive than his 10-attempt, 36-yard performance from the previous matchup with the Buckeyes. I'm expecting Etienne to eclipse the century mark fairly early on in this one and for him to have at least a pair of touchdowns.

Also, I think there are some valid concerns about how Justin Fields has played in two of his previous three games. He went 30-of-57 on passing attempts combined against Indiana and Northwestern, which are the two toughest teams he's faced this season. What's even more concerning to me is that he's had five interceptions in those games.

I obviously know that Fields is one of the top quarterbacks in the nation and is thus capable of getting back on course, but he just hasn't looked as confident in these types of games as he did in 2019. I think a turnover or two could be costly, especially with how Ohio State's defense has played, so this game hinges on how efficient Fields is and whether or not he can take care of the ball.

This is going to be a close one, but I have Clemson coming out on top. Clemson 41, Ohio State 33

I'll start by saying this: in my three years covering Ohio State football and 19 years as a fan prior to that, I've never once picked against the Buckeyes.

For a week after this matchup was announced, I thought this would be the first time.

I figured it would be a close game, but in the end Ohio State's secondary wouldn't hold up against Clemson junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Tigers would make enough stops against an offense that has yet to fire on all cylinders in a game.

Then Dabo Swinney happened.

One simply does not give a good team bulletin board material in the run up to a game against them. Clemson's head coach has done plenty of that, asserting that the Buckeyes don't belong due to their lack of contests and quite publicly voting them at No. 11 in the AP Poll.

Ohio State didn't need the extra motivation, hunting for a national championship and revenge against the team that ended such hopes last season, but it sure got it.

Here's how I believe Ohio State will win: in the trenches. The storyline of junior wide receiver Chris Olave is great and he'll be on standout performer watch, but the Buckeyes have one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Clemson counters with a tremendous pass rush, but if senior running back Trey Sermon gets going on the ground again -- Notre Dame found success on the ground against Clemson earlier this year -- it'll open up throws for the aerial attack.

Because of how much criticism the secondary has received, it can sometimes be hard to remember just how good Ohio State's front seven is defensively. It has the potential to make Clemson one dimensional, given the loss of a number of starters from the Tigers' offensive line in 2019. Senior running back Travis Etienne has been less productive this season and he really only hurt Ohio State catching the ball a year ago.

The strategy for Ohio State's defense should be this: play smart zone coverage through the back end, prevent big plays and let the front seven go to work. With a balanced offense attack and Swinney's extra motivation, the Buckeyes pull through in a classic. Ohio State 38 Clemson 34

It’s finally here. Noooo, not the start of a new year, but it’s time for Ohio State to finally do something it’s never done before. That’s beating Clemson. This is the team that forced Woody to punch one of its players. The same team that originally messed up Braxton Miller’s shoulder. The same team that beat us 31-0. The same team we should have beaten back in December 2019 but we didn’t.

Here’s what we need to do. 1) Stop the Afghan Hound. The dog, named Trevor, beat us with his feet last season. We had him rattled and then he made some huge plays when his receivers couldn’t get open. We need to force the sheep hound into making some questionable throws which will lead to incompletions and hopefully interceptions. 2) Tempo, tempo, tempo. Their defensive coordinator, Brent Venables, has a reputation for having people steal opposing teams’ signals. Tempo makes that difficult. Let’s line up quickly after each player and throw the ball. Wait, we showed we can run it, too. Let’s run plays, quickly, confuse their defense and that’ll lead to points. If we accomplish both steps one and two, then we will 3) Sadden Dabo. That’s huge. And it’ll be fun to watch.

Expect a ton of points to be scored on both sides. Let’s just make fewer mistakes than them and if we can simply stop a hound and prohibit their sign-stealing crap, we will be in the national championship game. Ohio State 48, Clemson 38