Published Mar 4, 2021
Why is this Ohio State team so different than those of years past?
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Marcus Horton  •  DottingTheEyes
Staff
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@antiarcushorton

KenPom never lies.

The college basketball efficiency tool, run by meteorologist Ken Pomeroy and used avidly by fans, gamblers, analysts, and coaches alike, is essentially the holy grail for strengths and weaknesses of each of the 357 basketball programs that compete in Division I.

Its main ranking criteria is based on adjusted efficiency margin, or the difference between a team’s offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, adjusted for pace of play.

Through 25 games, Ohio State sits at No. 7 in the KenPom standings. Its adjusted efficiency margin is plus-25.66, a program high dating back to 2012, when the Thad Matta-led Buckeyes reached the Final Four.

This is undoubtedly Chris Holtmann’s best group since he arrived in Columbus four years ago.

At the same time, it may be his most flawed.

Let’s look closer at what makes this Ohio State team so polarizing on both ends of the court.

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Offense

Even with a pair of ugly losses to Michigan State and Iowa weighing this team down in recent days, Ohio State still controls the country’s fourth-most efficient offense.

The Buckeyes are scoring more (1.115 points per possession), turning the ball over less (15.5 percent turnover rate), and getting to the free throw line more (38.7 percent free throw rate) than any of Holtmann’s three previous sides.

Ohio State offense, Holtmann era
SeasonORatingeFG%FTA/FGATO%Tempo

2017-18

116.0

54.1

31.1

17.1

67.0

2018-19

109.1

50.3

33.7

18.7

65.8

2019-20

114.3

52.3

36.7

19.1

66.2

2020-21

122.5

53.5

38.7

15.6

67.5

Though it still plays at a glacial pace, there has been a clear change of philosophy on offense without Kaleb Wesson. The ball moves faster around the perimeter and more players have more freedom to do what they do best.

In fact, out of six players who play more than 40 percent of Ohio State’s minutes, five are having career-best seasons on offense, with C.J. Walker barely missing the mark after a slow start to his final campaign.

Both Justin Ahrens and Kyle Young rank top-20 nationally in terms of individual offensive rating. Ahrens has taken off from behind the 3-point line after two seasons of inconsistent minutes; the junior wing is shooting 50-for-109 from the great beyond this season.

E.J. Liddell and Duane Washington Jr., the Buckeyes’ two highest-volume players, have each taken steps forward in largely-increased roles. Despite over half of his shots being 2-point jumpers, Liddell currently holds an incredible 59.1 true shooting percentage and ranks as one of the country's best in terms of getting to the free throw line.

Washington has taken the most 3-pointers (by far) in the Big Ten this season and is connecting on 37.4 percent of them, an above-average rate for such a volume shooter. Even though he is shooting less than 40 percent from the field this season, the junior guard's 3-point rate and lowered turnover percentage have turned him into an overwhelmingly positive player on offense.

All in all, Ohio State currently holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.5, its highest since 2011 and six points higher than any team Holtmann has coached.

Thanks to a freer-flowing offense with a new level of versatility, an emphasis on defined roles, and multiple players having career-best seasons, this Buckeye attack is the best we’ve seen since the days of Jared Sullinger and David Lighty.

Defense

As mentioned earlier, this may be the most imbalanced team Holtmann has coached at any level.

Ohio State checks in at No. 81 in the KenPom defensive efficiency rankings, a low for Holtmann and the first time the Buckeyes have been outside the top 75 since the final days of Jim O’Brien.

There are far fewer individual defensive statistics to point out this team’s woes on that end of the court, but the team numbers certainly do a decent job.

The Buckeyes rank No. 328 in defensive turnover percentage, No. 135 in opponent effective field goal percentage, No. 200 in opponent free throw rate, No. 216 in opponent 3-point percentage, and No. 246 in opponent assist rate, all while allowing opposing offenses to shoot well over 60 percent at the rim.

Shield your eyes.

Ohio State defense, Holtmann era
Higher DRtg = worse defense!
SeasonDRatingOpp. TO%Opp. FG% at rimSteal%Opp. Assist%

2017-18

94.9

17.9

56.6

9.0

49.9

2018-19

94.4

18.2

60.6

8.8

50.1

2019-20

92.0

18.3

58.0

7.5

49.1

2020-21

96.8

15.6

61.6

6.8

55.0

A large part of those issues stem from not having a rotation player taller than 6-foot-8. Another part comes from a lack of developed chemistry-- Ohio State has six fresh faces in the rotation this year, and Holtmann is routinely playing at least 10 players in every game.

On a more direct level, the Buckeyes simply have a number of below-average defenders. Washington, this team’s minutes leader, is a negative defender by most accounts. Ahrens and Seth Towns are limited physically. Same with Meechie Johnson Jr. and Jimmy Sotos.

All together, Ohio State’s defensive rating has fallen to a brutal 104.6 in conference play, a number that would rank No. 226 nationally.

When a team can’t reliably defend the post or the rim, everything else opens up for opposing offenses. We’ve seen Trevion Williams, Luka Garza, and Hunter Dickinson take advantage of that fact.

After three consecutive seasons with a top-25 defense, this year has very much been a bottoming-out for Holtmann and his team.

Simply put, Ohio State doesn’t have a ton of room to grow on that side of the ball with its current roster. Luckily, its offense has more than made up for that fact.

However, that wild variance on both ends of the court may come back to bite the Buckeyes when the postseason arrives in Indianapolis.