The Big Ten released its 2020 condensed schedule in entirety on Saturday morning, plotting the eight-game path to the conference’s championship week in mid-December.
The schedule does not include any bye weeks and is 100 percent conference games. There are no warm up contests against MAC schools and no “buy games.” Once Oct. 24 arrives, it’s Big Ten versus Big Ten for nine consecutive weeks.
Now that every matchup for every team is documented, who has the easiest path to the Big Ten Championship? The route for each contender is heavily dependent on its pair of cross-division games. Let’s look at which title-chaser has the easiest sprint to the finish.
East
The two Big Ten favorites (at least according to the preseason AP Top 25) come from the East.
Ohio State is the only conference school to make the College Football Playoff more than one time. It entered the season slotted as a consensus top-two team in the country.
The Buckeyes are joined at the top by Penn State, in what could be the Nittany Lions’ best chance to take the East Division crown.
We won’t have to wait very long to see the marquee divisional matchup- Ohio State travels to Happy Valley on Halloween in Week 2 of the modified schedule. The game represents both teams’ biggest opportunity to make a statement to the CFP selection committee.
With no fans, the crushing home field advantage of Beaver Stadium is neutralized, taking away from James Franklin's hopes of finally dethroning his neighbors to the west. Still, the game may be the biggest on the 2020 Big Ten schedule.
Neither team has a more challenging game in the regular season. Ohio State has taken seven of the past eight meetings, but the past four have been decided by an average of four points- it will be a close game.
Beyond the meeting with one another, both teams have relatively smooth sailing into the postseason. The combined record of Ohio State’s 2020 opponents last season was 51-50. Penn State holds the strength of schedule advantage, with a cross-division contest against Iowa versus Ohio State’s against Illinois.
Still, with an identical schedule minus one game, the two front-runners’ paths to Indianapolis (or wherever the Big Ten Championship is) after Week 2 are both wide open.
Michigan is a distant No. 3 in the East- a trip to Minnesota looms in week one and it has to play in Columbus in the final week of the season. The Wolverines have not won in Ohio Stadium since the final months of the Clinton administration.
Entering the season, it’s a two-team race- one that could be decided before the Big Ten reaches Week 3.
When one of Ohio State or Penn State inevitably loses on Halloween, the other has a straight shot to CFP contention.
West
Since the Big Ten moved to the East and West divisional format in 2014, the West has won a grand total of zero Big Ten Championship games. Wisconsin has come up short four times in six years and Iowa and Northwestern split the remaining two losses.
The West had three teams in the preseason AP Poll entering this season: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. That trifecta that finished one-two-three in 2019 again makes up the division’s main contention group in 2020.
Each team plays the requisite six games against its divisional foes. It’s the two games against the East that will decide who enters week nine in first place.
The reigning champion of the West, Wisconsin, travels to Michigan, a team it trounced last season, and has a home contest against an emerging Indiana team.
Iowa is home against Michigan State in week three and makes the intimidating trip to Penn State just two weeks later. The first three weeks of November is the toughest stretch for any team in the West: home against the Spartans, at Minnesota, at Penn State.
Finally, Minnesota. Last season’s breakout squad starts off with Jim Harbaugh and Michigan- a season-defining contest. The Golden Gophers' away contest comes just a week later, against Maryland, a team that has not made a bowl game since 2014.
Minnesota appears to have the cushiest schedule layout in 2020: it gets Michigan and Iowa at home and plays just three games against teams with above-.500 records a year ago.
On the flip side, Iowa plays three bowl-caliber teams in a three-week stretch early and ends with a date against Wisconsin, a team it has lost four straight against.
It would simply be wrong to bet against Paul Chryst and the Badgers.
The undisputed champion of the West is a consistent force in college football. Even with the trips to Ann Arbor and Iowa City, Wisconsin’s three game stretch to open the season could very well be the easiest in the Big Ten. Illinois, Nebraska, and Purdue won a combined 15 games last season.
The Badgers have gone at least .500 in conference play in every season since 2009. It finds a way to the Big Ten Championship more than any other school in the conference.
The Big Ten has been defined by its consistency. In its six seasons with geographical divisions, Ohio State or Wisconsin has been a part of every championship game except one.
This year could be different. Less games means less margin for error. One unexpected loss could turn a whole division on its head.
In the end, though, it's difficult to see an outcome besides one we're used to: Ohio State and Wisconsin meeting in the final conference game of the season.
