Weekly what to watch in the Big Ten for 2021 (Part Two)

We are inside of three months to the start of the 2021 football season with a “Week Zero” game between Nebraska and Illinois on the books to take place in late-August with the rest of the conference set to start action the first weekend of September.

It will be quite the return to normalcy to see 12-game schedules, non-conference opponents and most importantly the hope and knowledge that a game that has been on the schedule for months and years will not suddenly be cancelled hours before kickoff.

It got us to thinking about what the ultimate viewing schedule would be for the course of the regular season, from week one to week 13. Some weeks are going to be stronger than others with league play taking place, open weeks being accounted for and just a couple of weeks that are not all that compelling.

And then on other weeks, it really came into a coinflip situation to decide which game might mean more, does history outweigh recent success? We had to make that decision early in the season on a week with a great slate of games.

We know not everyone will agree with our picks and we know that many people in the community will have all 12 Ohio State games on their own personal list, and that is fine too.

On Tuesday we tackled the first five weeks of the 13-week schedule (12 games plus an open week total 13 weeks) and now we dive into the next four and get through the month of October.

Penn State owns the all-time series by a 17-13 margin, but Iowa nearly doubled up the Nittany Lions in 2020 with a 41-21 win, but before that the series had been all Penn State with six consecutive wins dating back until a 2010 Iowa win in Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes came close to winning the B1G West last season but a head-to-head loss to Northwestern was the ultimate deciding factor. Iowa has not won the west since 2015 and subsequently lost to Michigan State in the B1G Championship Game.

Prior to the 20-point Iowa win in 2020, Penn State won these games by close margins, with the previous three games being decided by five or fewer points.

Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras is not getting mentioned as much as many other league quarterbacks but is coming off of a decent first-year starting campaign where he threw for almost 1600 yards in eight games. Iowa’s fate will rest on his arm in large measure.

Six teams are in their open week, taking three games off the board to pick from, thus making some slim choosing.

Purdue and Iowa face off this week as well, marking the last two Big Ten teams to beat Ohio State, but the game does not have the same impact that the Nebraska vs. Minnesota game may have on the league race, namely where the Gophers will stand.

The Gophers have a firm hold on this series by a 34-25-2 edge and have won the last two games, dating back to a 2018 Huskers win in Lincoln.

The Huskers do hold a 16-game win streak in this series from 1963-2012, almost entirely with the two teams being part of different leagues.

Minnesota is still one of those picks for the Big Ten West that people want to make, and on paper it seems like a good pick. Quarterback Tanner Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim both rank among league leaders in their respective positions, PJ Fleck is a favorite coach of many, and the Gophers just seem to be able to break through from time-to-time, but will that time be now?

Needless to say, a loss to Nebraska here would be fatal for any Big Ten aspirations, but then again, if the Huskers are able to get past Oklahoma earlier in the season, the talk could be around Scott Frost’s team and not the boat rowers from Minnesota.

It is not even worth talking about Ohio State’s 26-game winning streak or overwhelming edge in the overall series numbers when this game will be all about what happened in 2020, the Buckeyes seeing a 35-7 lead almost evaporate and the Hoosiers taking Ohio State to the brink in the 4th quarter at Ohio Stadium.

As long as Michael Penix, Peyton Hendershot and Ty Fryfogle are there, the Hoosier offense can move the ball down the field. Will transfer running back Stephen Carr be able to do what he wasn’t able to do with consistency at USC? Outside of him, there has not been a lot of success with the bulk of the experience lying with Sampson James.

This game is far enough down the line for the memories of letting the Outback Bowl get away from them against Ole Miss. Granted, that was with Jack Tuttle at quarterback and not Penix, but there is the issue if Penix will be able to hold up for a whole season, as he has only faced Ohio State once in three seasons.

Can this game be considered a revenge game for Ohio State, provided that the Buckeyes did not lose the last match-up? If you were around Columbus or Buckeye Nation, it sure felt like a loss, just with the dark cloud that hung over the heads of so many fans. But a win is a win, and Ohio State got one and hopes to be able to go to Bloomington and make a more definitive statement, for a multitude of reasons, especially with the CFP rankings coming into play around this time of the season.

There are some other great games this week, at least in name value with Michigan and Michigan State meeting up along with Wisconsin/Iowa and Minnesota/Northwestern, but is there any question what the game should be this week?

The Big Ten East race and likely the Big Ten crown will be decided this week, provided Penn State lives up to its end of the bargain.

It may be a tad bit homerish to assume that Ohio State will enter this game undefeated but if early lines are any indication, Vegas money seems to be a tad bit homerish in forecasting the Buckeyes, with an 11-game win over/under on the year, and this likely will be the game that will stand between Ohio State and another perfect league schedule.

This series has belonged to the Buckeyes through recent years, not without its tense moments with a pair of one-point wins where the Buckeyes were down two scores in the 4th quarter and of course the last loss in the series taking place in Happy Valley after a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown would prove to be the margin of victory as Ohio State couldn’t overcome a litany of mistakes.

One thing we will not buy into is that last year’s game between these two teams was any reason to have great concern for this year’s game. Sure, it was a 13-point margin between the two teams and Penn State did find success throwing the ball late against the Ohio State secondary, and while both Sean Clifford and Jahan Dotson will be factors, much of that occurred after Ohio State took its foot off the accelerator, and that mistake will not be made again this season.