Tale of the Tape: Northwestern

START YOUR BUCKEYEGROVE.COM PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP TODAY!

After not playing Northwestern all that much over the past 20 years the Wildcats seem to keep popping up on the Ohio State schedule, with this being the second championship game meeting between the two programs in the past three years.

Of course both teams are very different than the ones that went to Indy back in 2018 but in some ways are the same. If you talk to most Ohio State fans, they will remind you that the 2018 defense had some issues, much like the 2020 defense does (we may debate those fans on the structure and severity, but we do agree that it has been a challenge at points this season) while the Cats are doing it with fundamental defense and limited offense.

Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but take a look at what the numbers on offense show going into this game (but keep in mind that Northwestern had played 12 games in 2018 and just seven to date in 2020).

Now, as we mentioned, this sample size is five games smaller in 2020 than it was in 2018, Northwestern has not exactly played the best teams that the Big Ten has to offer, but outside of Ohio State, who would fit the bill of being good teams? Indiana? Iowa? Once you throw Ohio State into the mix, every other team has three or fewer losses and only one team, Minnesota, is at .500 while everyone else is underwater.

But it does go to show that the Cats are a defensive-minded team and that this might be NU DC's Mike Hankwitz's swan-song as the 73-year-old has been in some sort of coaching role since 1970 after a playing career at Michigan.

None of this seems to matter when you talk to the oddsmakers however with the Buckeyes opening as a 20-point favorite in this 2020 edition. For those wondering, Ohio State was a 16.5-point favorite in 2018 and won the game by 21 points. Ohio State has won eight straight in this series and in the odds that we can find through the last seven games, Ohio State is 6-1, only failing to cover in 2016 in a 24-20 win over the Cats. The Over has hit in six of those seven games as well with 2016 being the lone exception.

There is a lot to take in as we dissect this game and we are going to the Tale of the Tape to try and make a little more sense out of this one.

For as good as the Northwestern defense has been over the years, it is not as if the Cats have been able to completely stymie the Ohio State offense, especially the passing game in the past two match-ups. And while personnel changes, there are some constants and one of those is head coach Ryan Day, who was the head coach in the 2019 game and was the OC in 2018. It would be easy to go back and look at the 2018 game and try and learn a lot there, being in the same building, etc... but even the difference of a year changes the dynamic so much, most of the players that were doing things in that game have moved on and the 2019 year is a better indication of things. In 2019, quarterback Justin Fields did not put up huge yardage numbers but still found connections for four touchdowns in a highly-efficient game where he was 18-23 for 194 yards. Strangely enough Ohio State did not have a pass completion that went for more than 23 yards in that game, once again showing how Northwestern is going to make you earn things. But on the other side, Fields only had five incompletions in the game and it shows that plays were there to be made and while Ohio State was not able to hit those home runs, there were more than a few two-run doubles that were hit. Chris Olave had two touchdowns in the game as part of his five-catch game. Garrett Wilson was not a difference maker in that game but still had three grabs of his own, meaning that both players have seen this defense in the past and know what to expect. And more importantly, Fields knows what to expect in this one as a second-year starter for the Buckeyes and having an extra week to prepare for this game. You have to wonder if tight ends could be an X-factor this time around if underneath is going to be what is available. If Ohio State's offensive line situation is much closer to normal this week than against Michigan State (and Ohio State is supposed to release its status report on Friday instead of Saturday, read into that how you will) then Ohio State may not have to run as much out of the 12 personnel or at least keep a tight end home as much to account for a line that had 60-percent new starters (more on that later). For some odd reason, I am expecting one of the freshman receivers to have a big game here as Northwestern schemes up Olave/Wilson and leaves either a Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Julian Fleming against a softer point of the defense.

The Cats have 12 interceptions through seven games, not a bad effort, especially with Brandon Joseph and his five picks. It is even more impressive with Joseph lining up at safety and not as a corner and there will be several more years of him as a R-Freshman. He is the only young guy in the secondary as fellow safety, JR Pace, is a senior and the two corners, Greg Newsome and Cam Ruiz are both juniors. Newsome is more of the bigger prototypical corner at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds and Ruiz is smaller at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. Teams are not throwing for a lot against this secondary but a further look at the numbers shows that only one opponent of the Cats is in the top-30 in passing (Ohio State is 24th) with Purdue finishing the season at No. 17, averaging 307 yards per game, but Purdue kind of fell off the table with injury at the QB position as the year went on. Purdue threw for 263 yards and two scores and was one of two teams that did not throw at least one interception against the Wildcats. But it also took Purdue 51 attempts to get there as the Boilermakers ran for a whopping TWO YARDS of offense in the game, showing what happens if a one-dimensional team shows up. The Boilers had opportunities to cut into the eventual seven-point margin in the 4th quarter but couldn't capitalize. Four of Northwestern's opponents appear in the bottom-30 of passing teams in college football but you also have to remember that those numbers also are directly impacted by what Northwestern did to them, but it just goes to show that the Cats have not faced a Justin Fields (yet) or Michael Penix on the year to really test this back end.