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It really all comes down to this between the Buckeyes and That School Up North. Two historical rivals meeting once again with so much on the line. Both teams are sitting at 10-1 and with an eye on the College Football Playoff (though neither would like to admit that they are aware their playoff lives are at stake here).
Michigan came out in 2016 and really ran roughshod over most of its schedule with five wins of 30-plus points. The Buckeyes are also sitting with five wins of 30-plus points as they have been equally dominant at times including a pair of 62-3 wins in league play.
Ohio State fans have watched the Wolverines from a distance this year but may not have been able to scout their biggest foe at length until this week. What do we really know about Michigan? Are they as good as the stats say or is there something there that just does not add up? We try to answer all of those questions as we put Ohio State's final regular season opponent under the microscope and go to The Tale of the Tape.
Ohio State QB/WR/TE vs. Michigan Defensive Backs
Ohio State fans were feeling much better about things after the Nebraska and Maryland games in terms of passing success for the Buckeyes. In those two games, J.T. Barrett (who did not finish out either game) was 44-65 for 543 yards and six touchdowns. Then Michigan State happened. Then the wind happened. Less than 100 yards later and all of the questions of the Ohio State passing game have resurfaced in a major way. Ohio State fans have become amateur meteorologists since the game in East Lansing (as of Wednesday the forecast is a high of 44, 10-percent chance of precipitation and wind in the 10 mph range). The Buckeyes only completed four passes to Curtis Samuel against Michigan State in a game where the Buckeyes only completed a grand total of 10. That is going to have to change this week and better wind conditions (not only the speed of the wind but the lack of swirling winds) should give the Buckeyes more confidence in throwing the ball. It seems like an eternity ago when Barrett was speaking of Noah Brown as his go-to guy and throwing the ball just around him and letting Brown go get it. The Oklahoma game was a glimpse into how things could work but there has not been much of a connection since then and even in some of Ohio State's more potent passing games, Brown has not been a consistent contributor. K.J. Hill has seen his stock rise throughout the season and could be an X-factor as with tight end Marcus Baugh who has been a steady safety net for Barrett, even if his consistency has been tested at times on the easy passes (Baugh seems to thrive on higher degree of difficulty balls). Will true freshman Binjimen Victor be called upon in the biggest of games? The south Florida native has all sorts of potential, he could be a recipient on a fade route in the RZ if the Buckeyes get there and look to break tendencies.
Michigan has been very good against the pass but is that a result of a weak passing schedule going against them or have games of total domination by the Wolverines just tilted the numbers to look the way they do? That is not likely with most teams sitting at 11 games played and one game of bad stats would not totally skew the numbers. Michigan has played five teams who are ranked 100th or worse in passing offense (that is not a great selling point for Big Ten Conference superiority). The Buckeyes are not exactly setting the world on fire with their 68th ranked passing offense but when plotted against the Michigan schedule, Ohio State's No. 68 ranking would rank 4th overall on a weak schedule. And for as inconsistent as Ohio State's passing offense has been, no Michigan opponent has scored more touchdowns via the pass than Ohio State (27). All four of Michigan starting defensive backs have double-digit career starts and are led by Jourdan Lewis and his 28 career starts. Channing Stribling leads the Wolverines with four interceptions and 11 PBUs. Stribling was injured in the Iowa game but returned to his starting position for the game against Indiana. Lewis has 10 PBUs from his position but only two interceptions through eight games. Delano Hill also has a nose for the ball with three picks. The Wolverines have 11 INTs as a team and while that is middle of the pack in the conference, this is still a very tough defense to find consistent passing lanes against.
With the inconsistency that is the Ohio State passing game at this point, it is hard to pick the Buckeyes here. When the Buckeyes are 'on', they are tough to beat, but will they be on? We tend to think that Ohio State will have something planned here to get some early confidence for Barrett and Ohio State very well could end up making us look bad here but for now we have to give the edge to the visitors.
Advantage: Michigan