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And here we are, once again.
The Buckeyes are back in the College Football Playoff and Clemson stands in the way of a spot in the championship game.
In the previous three meetings, neither team was more than a 2.5-point favorite with the Buckeyes being the favorite in both the 2014 and 2016 games, coming up on the wrong in of both of those decisions. Clemson was the favorite in the 2019 game and the Buckeyes had the game won, until they didn't. Ohio State is 7-1 as an underdog in its last eight games, that game being the only blemish on that record.
Ohio State will enter this game at/around a touchdown underdog, by far the largest line of this series (we were unable to find a line for the 1978 Gator Bowl, the first meeting between these two teams).
Then again, if you listen to Dabo Swinney, the Buckeyes don't even deserve a shot to be here, only playing six games this season, voting them No. 11 on his entry in the Amway Coaches Poll and popping off on any show with a microphone in front of him.
If the Buckeyes need that for inspiration, this might be a long night for Ohio State as we are dealing with the top four teams in the nation, or at least in the way that the College Football Playoff committee sees things. But, if this is just the cherry on the sundae of motivation, it can be a powerful tool, but you never want it to be the main course.
It is our belief, well mine at least, that neither this Ohio State team nor this Clemson team are quite as good as the ones that took the field in the Fiesta Bowl just a short year ago, but both are still pretty damn good and it is going to come down to who executes the best in this game and maybe a few calls going the right way wouldn't hurt as well.
We put this big game into focus as we go to the Tale of the Tape to talk about Ohio State and Clemson as the Buckeyes hope to break through for the first time against the Tigers after four previous attempts.
Ohio State Defensive Backs vs. Clemson QB/WR/TE
It is probably for the best that we get to the section that has Ohio State fans most worried in this game, the Ohio State pass defense. Sure, it is true that the 2020 team has given up as many passing touchdowns through six games as Ohio State gave up in 2019 through 14 games. The Buckeyes did not give up a passing touchdown in six of those games, but then again, Ohio State has not given up a passing touchdown in thiree of its games this season, but it is the other three games that have fans concerned, and actually, it is two... Penn State and Indiana. Each of those games were under very different circumstances, but the same as well. In both of the games the Buckeyes had big leads before the passing numbers started to tally, with a 31-13 lead against the Nittany Lions and a 35-7 lead against the Hoosiers. But as Penn State was heating up between Sean Clifford and Jahan Dotson, that game was already out of reach whereas the Hoosiers made their game into a real game as Michael Penix and Ty Fryfogle started to put on a clinic. The Buckeyes have only had two games since that IU game to try and get that taste out of their mouths, and while Ohio State has only given up 152 yards per game in the last two games, neither Rocky Lombardi nor Payton Ramsey are going to be a quarter as dangerous as a potential Heisman winning Trevor Lawrence. Who will be at safety in this game? Marcus Hooker was unable to go against Northwestern and Josh Proctor stepped into the role and while many people will remember his dropped potential pick-six, he also did step up with another momentum shifter with a big interception later in the game. You know that Shaun Wade wants some redemption in this game after he was tossed for a questionable targeting call, at least in terms of "intent" with Lawrence ducking down and making it all-but-impossible for Wade not to get hit with the targeting call. Can Sevyn Banks and Marcus Williamson hold up against a passing offense that throws for a lot of yards and puts up a lot of points? This is a different secondary than the one last year that had guys like Jeffrey Okudah, Jordan Fuller and Damon Arnette in it. It will be the biggest test of the year, unless the Buckeyes win this game and get to the next game, which then would become the biggest game of the year, regardless of who advances from the Rose Bowl.
The 2020 Clemson passing offense is throwing for 56 more yards per game than its 2019 predecessor but does that mean anything, at least at the end of the day? Clemson had 31 passing touchdowns through 11 games last season to 29 this season, so that is pretty even, and you don't determined a winner based on yardage, it is still based on score. Trevor Lawrence is still Trevor Lawrence and anybody who wants to claim that he is anything less than last season really has not been paying attention this year. His interceptions are down (based on a bad start to the 2019 season), his completion percentage is up and is passer rating (for whatever that is worth) is up as well. Granted, Clemson did not have to play a non-conference schedule this year (apologies to The Citadel) and that meant everyone on the schedule (outside of maybe Notre Dame) was very familiar to this team and there were no surprises. Clemson has done a good job of spreading things around with eight receivers having more than 10 catches on the year but make no mistake that Amari Rodgers is the guy that they will be looking for with his 69 receptions, 966 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Cornell Powell has come on as of late and sits second with 45 receptions, one more than running back Travis Etienne, who truly is an all-purpose type of player. 11 players on this team have caught a touchdown pass, meaning that there are some options and while a few of those names were more likely a result of games being blowouts and just spreading it around, don't sleep on the 'multipleness' of this team. While Ohio State has not really set the world on fire with its pass defense from a stats standpoint (104th in Pass Defense, 47th in Pass Eff. Defense) it is not as if Clemson has faced a lot of great pass defenses along the way. The Buckeyes may be giving up the yards, as evidenced in the Pass Defense numbers, but Ohio State's No. 47 Pass Eff. Defense is better than all but two of Clemson's opponents this year, Notre Dame at No. 20 and Pittsburgh and No. 42. Then again, Clemson hung 436 yards and three scores on Pitt, but the point is, the ACC was not deep with teams that were great against the pass this year.