Staff Predictions: Penn State

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The Buckeyes are going back on the road this week, this time to Penn State and now the Buckeyes will have played in three of the most hostile stadiums for road teams in all of college football (joining Wisconsin and Oklahoma). The Buckeyes have won 20 consecutive road games under Urban Meyer and are a next-world 56-4 under Meyer during his tenure with the Buckeyes.

The Buckeyes are on a four-game winning streak in a series that they lead 17-13 overall and have not lost in State College (Pa.) since the 2005 games (four straight wins at Penn State). But only one of those four wins have been by more than two touchdowns (a 20-point win in 2007). Vegas sees Ohio State somewhere near a three touchdown favorite in this one (the line has moved up and down during the week).

Everyone will reference the 2014 game, a double overtime game, as a litmus test as to the power of Penn State's white out. The truth of the matter is, Ohio State has only once in State College since the start of the organized white out in 2014.

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Ohio State winning by 20 points may be a big stretch but the reality is Penn State's newfound offense will do nothing for its middling defense. Penn State has given up at least 26 points in four of its six games against a schedule that only consists of two teams in the top-40 nationally in scoring offense.

Ohio State will come out and try to run against a front that has been gashed this year, setting up the passing game for J.T. Barrett and Curtis Samuel. Penn State will not have any answer for Mike Weber as the Buckeyes keep a consistent two-score lead for most of the game before finally covering the spread in the late moments of the game. Ohio State 38 Penn State 17

It wasn’t as easy as I thought it would be, but the Buckeyes were able to leave Madison on top. Considering what lies ahead on Saturday, I actually think it was the perfect game for Ohio State — in front of a thunderous road crowd, at night and a shaky enough performance to keep everyone honest.

Penn State’s last two games have, arguably, been its best of the season, plus it is well-rested after its bye week. Led by Trace McSorley, which is exactly the name you would expect a Penn State quarterback to have, the Nittany Lion offense will pressure the Buckeye defense. McSorley has been a surprise in his first season starting. His deep ball has been outstanding thus far, as half his touchdown passes have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. Chunk plays hurt Ohio State against Wisconsin and this week should tell us if they’ve been able to address that issue.

For the Buckeyes, I need to see a quick start. Outside the Oklahoma game, that’s been elusive this season, having turned it over on their first possession three times. I think Ohio State wins this game, but a valiant effort by the Nittany Lions is in store. Ohio State 27 Penn State 17

The Buckeyes otherworldly defense fell back to earth somewhat last week when the Badgers absolutely gashed them through the first half. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, they can switch out the Badgers crafty outside zone play calling for the Nittany Lions’ more conventional offense. Trace McSorley is a significant upgrade over the quarterback of yesteryear, whom Buckeye fans have fond memories being knocked to the ground by the pass rush. He has quietly amassed 1436 yards over the season to date, good for third in the Big Ten, five spots ahead of Barrett.

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Beyond that, the Nittany Lions look more like a paper tiger. They’ve allowed 14 sacks, are converting on third down a woefully bad 27 percent of the time, last in the conference, and have punted 31 times in 2016, ten more than the Buckeyes. I have tremendous respect for any program that calls a pro-style offense, and while McSorley has a live arm, his group of receivers looks slow and seriously lacks depth after the foursome of DeAndre Thompkins, Chris Goodwin, Mike Gesicki and DaeSean Hamilton. Not a blueprint for success against a ferocious OSU secondary with the ability to blanket skilled players.

For the Buckeyes, much like Kevin, it’s all in the start. The team cannot allow momentum to swing to the home team, which is well-rested. I expect the Nittany Lions to look somewhat more put together in the game’s opening minutes, but the OSU coaching staff will make better adjustments and faster than they did last week. When they clamped down on the running game, the Badgers were forced to throw at Gareon Conley, not even bothering to go near Malik Hooker. All he did was force two interceptions (with one recalled). I expect stopping the run early to be the gameplan this weekend.

Penn State’s 4-2 record can be best described as “superficial.” This program is in turnaround and will show it’s underbelly in front of a national audience. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are coming in riding a wave of confidence after beating the Badgers. That should alleviate early game jitters they showed. This game won’t bare resemblance to the 2014 chapter of this rivalry. Ohio State 42 Penn State 10

Ohio State has two very important things to worry about this week. The first one is coming down from a very emotional win against Wisconsin. To have to turn around and refocus for another hostile road environment after a thrilling overtime win isn't always easy.

The second thing will be limiting Penn State's explosive plays. Ohio State gave up more explosive plays to Wisconsin than it should have last week given the Badgers' personnel. This week, Penn State's personnel is very good at creating explosive plays, from running back Saquon Barkley to the three-headed monster at receiver in Chris Godwin, Daesean Hamilton, and DeAndre Thompkins, even to tight end Mike Gesicki. Penn State has six players with a catch of more than 40 yards this season.

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Ohio State should hold an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the football in this game, however, so limiting the big plays and making Penn State sustain long drives will be big for the defense while the offense should be able to establish the running game and control the clock. I look for Ohio State to roll up the yards on the ground and while I do expect Penn State to hit a couple of big plays, it won't be quite enough. Ohio State 35 Penn State 17.

Another week---another night game---another opponent coming off a bye week. The schedule makers at the BIG have to be having a big chuckle over this one, as something like this has to be purposeful.

But that is a discussion for another day. The task at hand is defeating the Lions and this game---again----will be closer than it should be. People just underestimate the difficulty in playing these night games as it totally changes your preparation schedule and rhythm---and offense is so much about coordination and being in sync. Throw in the deafening crowd noise of a "white out" evening in Happy Valley and I think we will see more false starts and procedure penalties from this young offensive line--and those are drive killers.

Defensively stopping Barkley becomes priorities 1, 1A and 1AA as he is the only guy on that side of the field that scares me---and I do think he will get his yards. Nothing else from PSU is dynamic enough to consistently beat the OSU defense--who should be in a snarly mood after last week.

I've got Ohio State winning (but not covering) in another ugly one. Ohio State 35 Penn State 21

I think this game will be much closer than people would like it to be. Ohio State is coming off of playing a very good Wisconsin team that was fully rested coming off of a bye week. To boot, they had to play that game at night and it was extended into overtime. The “student athletes” didn’t get back home to Columbus until roughly 6 am, thus making Coach Meyer shift their normal Monday day off to Sunday and having them do a light practice on Monday. This may not seem like much, but I personally think it should be illegal for a team to play teams in road night games(coming off byes) back-to-back weeks. It is awful on the kids.

In terms of the game, we must pound the rock early and often. Penn State has been gashed on the ground to the tune of 208.8 yards per game. That is a very un-Penn State like number. Defensively, we obviously need to employ the Hack-A-Saq and shut down Saq Barkley. I rarely see a guy get singled out as much as Urban Meyer has singled him out, so I look for our defense to aggressively defend the run with some early down blitzing. Our secondary is as good as I have seen at Ohio State, so getting them into 2nd and 3rd and long situations will lead to turnovers and sacks for our Rushmen up front. Happy Valley is easily the hardest place to play in the Big Ten, so also look for noise to be a factor on our early offensive drives. Once our guys settle in, I look for our talent to take over. Ohio State 31 Penn State 14

Ohio State has to come off a tough, emotional overtime win in Wisconsin -- only to turn around and play another road night game in another tough environment at Penn State. The Buckeyes could build upon their second half performance last week -- in particular a revitalized pass game -- and come out firing on all cylinders, or they could be not fully recovered and in for a long slog. The Ohio State defense faces perhaps the best running back they will face this year in Saquon Barkley. But the defense also gets to face a more familiar spread read team that is not a significant passing threat.

Fulton Analysis: Offense | Defense

Penn State will likely do what many opposing defenses do against Ohio State -- apply their field edge defender and boundary safety against the run game while playing pattern matching cover 3 and other zones behind. But the Nittany Lions' even fronts allow the Buckeyes to get back to their base tight zone read play. Ohio State had a lot of success with zone and split zone last season against Penn State. Look for the Buckeyes to feature such read plays early. But Penn State has shown bear looks in short yardage situations -- so the Buckeyes must be ready to attack the edge with Curtis Samuel. Ohio State will also likely target the cover 3 corners with vertical stem routes to Noah Brown. Whether Ohio State is able to maximize its offense may once again turn on whether the Buckeyes can hit explosive plays downfield. Ohio State 34 Penn State 17

I hate Penn State. They've been in the Big Ten for 26 years and they still can't get the concept through their heads that their not our rival. ATTENTION NITTANY LION LOVERS: Nobody likes you. Not only does America have zero respect for you (see ex-coach, ex-assistant, statue, etc.) but your fans are delusional. If the Big 12 changes its mind and decides to expand, they can have you. Hell, then you can have West Virginia as your very own rival.

Enough of that. We're coming off an emotional win on the road and this week's road challenge will be tighter than a lot of people think. When they're not throwing bags filled with urine at our marching band, their stupid fans will do that white out thing. It's never a fun environment there but we will finally get off to a good start and be in control throughout the game. It'll be fun watching all their sad fans leave early. Ohio State 47 Penn State 14