This is a game between two teams moving in very different directions in 2019. The Buckeyes (6-0, 3-0) are winners of six straight games and very much in the race for the College Football Playoff while the Wildcats (1-4, 0-3) are sitting at 1-4 and bowl hopes are growing dimmer and dimmer as each week passes.
The Buckeyes have beaten the Cats on the regular in the previous 77 games of this series, but the 78th meeting takes place on the rare Friday night slot and breaking routines might be about the only hope that Northwestern really has in this one as Ohio State holds an edge in every major statistical category.
How do we see this game playing out? We make our picks in advance of the 8:30pm (EDT) kickoff (BTN) on the Buckeyes heading to Evanston (Ill.) to take on Northwestern.
Kevin Noon - Publisher
Is THIS the trap game that everyone has been worrying about for Ohio State? We have seen one each of the last two years and Ohio State has a CFP quarterfinals match-up against Wisconsin the following week. It would be very easy to look ahead to that game, a game that could be the first of two games against the Badgers.
Neither Iowa in 2017 nor Purdue in 2018 were exactly offensive juggernauts in terms of scoring offense. But this Northwestern team in 2019 is just downright bad on offense as they have not really found much success in replacing Clayton Thorson from last season. The 2019 Cats are averaging 14.4 points per game on offense and rank No. 128 (out of 130) in scoring offense. When the Buckeyes faced Purdue last year, the Boilers were averaging 33.5 points per game and ranked 42nd, in 2017 the Hawkeyes were averaging 25.0 points per game and were 88th in the nation.
One thing that is consistent between all three teams is that all were pretty good at keeping teams off the scoreboard. The 2019 Cats are allowing just shy of 20 points per game, very close to the 18 by Iowa and the 19 by Purdue.
The issue for the Wildcats is that they have really only played one team with an offensive pulse with the Badgers in Madison (Wis.) and while we have to applaud the effort of holding the Badgers to just 24 points in that game, everyone else on the schedule is in the bottom tier of the nation in scoring offense, led by Nebraska at 90th in the nation at 25.6 points per game.
Michigan State had a pretty good defense too, up until the second quarter of its game against Ohio State and then once it broke, that was all she wrote.
The Cats won't be able to sustain any drives in this game and while the Cats will do their best to keep Ohio State from breaking a lot of big plays by keeping everything 'in front of them', the Buckeyes will just go small-ball and have the ability to name any score that it would like.
Look for the Buckeyes to try and get starters out as soon as things allow that to happen and this to be a good chance for the depth on the travel roster to see some minutes on the road as Ohio State moves on to a home date with the Badgers at 7-0. Ohio State 45 Northwestern 0
Alex Gleitman - Recruiting Analyst
This was a game I had my eye on as a possible "upset special" prior to the season, but it's hard to imagine it going that way after seeing how bad the Northwestern offense has been through the first five games, in which the Wildcats have put up 7, 30, 10, 15, and 10 points against Stanford, UNLV, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Nebraska respectively, en route to a 1-4 start.
Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach, though, and with a bye last week, as well as the fact that this is a huge opportunity to turn the season around, he should have his team as ready to play as they can be for this one. Will that be enough to beat the Buckeyes? Will it be enough to keep things close? Unfortunately for the Purple & White faithful, I just don't think so. Yes, Ohio State could be caught looking ahead to Wisconsin the week after, but with a bye themselves last weekend and knowing what the stakes are, as well as how games like this have gone the last two years (Purdue, Iowa), I don't see the let down coming.
The Northwestern defense could stymie the Ohio State offense a bit early on, but over the course of 60 minutes, they should be on the field more than enough to wear the Wildcats down. On defense, it would be surprising if the Silver Bullets struggled with what has been a horrid NU offensive attack, and it should be more of the same from a group that currently ranks second in total defense nationally. The spread is around 28, but I think the Buckeyes edge that number out: Ohio State 45, Northwestern 13
Keaton Maisano - Staff Writer
Most of the predictions on this site will stress the immense separation between the talent of Ohio State and that of Northwestern. People will discuss the lackluster offense that Northwestern has put on the field this season or the 1-4 record that they currently hold. Some may talk about Ohio State's letdown losses the past two years.
While all these points are tempting and worth acknowledgement, I am not going to take the low hanging fruit. Instead, I want to discuss the big picture for Ohio State and what is at stake for this team each and every week.
In the eyes of many, Ohio State has been the best team in 2019. The offense has been balanced and explosive, and the defense has been suffocating and consistent. Ryan Day's team has raised its play to a standard that makes Ohio State its own greatest opponent, not Northwestern or any team that lines up across the field.
It will be interesting to see if there is rust or a lack of focus on Friday, as the game is sandwiched between an off week and the big matchup against Wisconsin. If any side of the ball will show signs of rust, it would be the offense, which will be tasked with going up against a sound Northwestern defense.
The defense will dominate for the Buckeyes, and the offense will put up a large quarter or two to overwhelm the Wildcats. The Buckeyes will keep the momentum rolling into the most anticipated Big Ten matchup of the year against Wisconsin next weekend. Ohio State 48 Northwestern 0
Braden Moles - Staff Writer
Nebraska was supposed to put up a fight. Michigan State was supposed to stop the running game. Many, many more things have gone right for Ohio State this season than things have gone bad, but the bill comes due, yes?
It's truly a perfect storm. A game against a Big Ten West opponent on the road. A down and out team. This is the formula that has led to season crushing losses against Iowa and Purdue the last two seasons, and the math checks out heading into Friday's matchup.
With all due respect to Northwestern, though, this will most likely be the second easiest game of the season for Ohio State (I don't need to tell you what No. 1 will be), as I don't see the Wildcats being able to do anything against Ohio State's defense.
Pat Fitzgerald's offense ranks 128th of out 130 possible teams in points per game this season, ahead of only Akron and...uh...Rutgers. That's it. That's the whole list. Only five teams rank worse in total offense per game, and the Wildcats rank dead last in the nation with only 4.0 yards per play. Additionally, the offense is turning the ball over 2.4 times per game, the sixth worst mark in the country.
I'm rambling at this point, but I also feel that I've made my point. This is just a terrible offense going up against one of the best defenses in the nation. He won't do this because he is a much smarter man than I am, but Ryan Day should feel comfortable putting Chris Chugonov and the backups in when the Buckeyes take a 14-0 lead. Things are going to get ugly in Evanston, and this game should come with a TV-MA warning. It is coming on at night, after all.
It's difficult to predict a shutout because so many things could happen to break that. The Buckeyes could turn the ball over deep in their own territory resulting in a chip-shot field goal, the Wildcats could get a cheap safety like Miami (Ohio) did, or Northwestern's offense could break off a play once the Silver Bullet starters are out of the game. Considering the chaos factor, I'll spot the Wildcats three points, but that's the most I'm willing to give them heading into this game. Ohio State 52, Northwestern 3
Ross Fulton - Analyst
Coming off a bye-week Ohio State goes on the road to face a Northwestern team that has a strong defense (number five overall in SP+) but an astronomically bad offense (124th in those same rankings). That adds up to a team that is only 62nd overall in SP+, making them the third-worst team the Buckeyes have faced this season.
The Northwestern defense likes to play very soft zones with its corners, keep everything in front, and force a team to sustain drives. Just as Ohio State did in the Big Ten championship game last season, look for the Buckeyes to repeatedly target outside hitches and curls against the soft corner coverage, before looking to create explosive plays behind run/pass conflicted safeties. As they did against Michigan State, the Ohio State offense will likely look to target inside zone outside the 1-technique defensive tackle.
On defense, this is a largely a matter of staying sharp, playing sound, and continuing to not allow explosive plays. In particular, Ohio State will likely look to continue to work on defending the middle of the field in the passing game. So long as the Buckeye offense does not turn the football over, the Ohio State defense should be in a good position to control the action. Ohio State 37 Northwestern 8
Kirk Barton - Former Captain
The rematch of the Big Ten title game has two programs going in opposite directions this season, as the Buckeyes are playing at an extremely high level and the Cats are basically spayed. Justin Fields has been better than we ever could have hoped, but it’ll be interesting to see how he does in the cold weather for one of the first times he has played in it. Chicago in the winter is not fun, and the chill is coming to Evanston.
Defensively, they will not be able to block our front four and that will lead to major issues for a weak offense. Chase Young will continue his Heisman run and it will be a feeding frenzy for him with two sacks and once forced fumble. Ohio State 35 Northwestern 10
NevadaBuck - Bringer of Nuggets
Fresh off of the bye week and the newly scrambled up offensive tendencies, I look for us to slice through the wildcats like a hot knife through butter. JK Dobbins will continue to heat up as the weather cools down, and our dominant offensive line will be in full force again this week. Look for the offense to go big and keep grinding opponents up.
Defensively, I look for the Buckeyes to have a ton of success versus the woeful offense of Northwestern. They have rarely scored and Nebraska held them to less than two TDs. In my opinion, if they do score, it will be an early one and maybe a late couple versus our backups. Looking forward to the guys getting an extra day of rest before the Wisconsin showdown. Ohio State 42 Northwestern 21
@FakeUrban - Twitter Icon
One of the perks of being a former football coach at The Ohio State University is having an office at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. It’s not a large office but it’s one where I get to access and gauge the pulse of the football team.
The guys over there have been pretty full of themselves for the first six weeks of the season. They really haven’t encountered any adversity. So I’ve taken it upon myself to remind the guys that traveling on the road at a Big Ten West division opponent might not be easy. I don’t want to name any names, but I’ve run into a few players who have been leaning back in their chairs, eyes closed, with those noise canceling headphones on.
I’ve got some news for you. They don’t always cancel the noise.
A few times this week I found some cymbals that I’ve smashed together and screamed words like Iowa and Purdue at our complacent guys. It seems to do the trick. In previous years, this road game could have been a stumbling block.
I think with our current coaching staff - and my not so subtle reminders - that our team should be okay and not be looking ahead to saddening the Wisconsin Badgers. Northwestern is not a good football team.
But neither was Purdue last year and Iowa in 2017. I’m hoping we can get out to a fast start and sadden their two or three dozen fans while the rest of their stadium that’s decked out in scarlet and gray enjoys a couple days in Chicago. I can’t see the Wildcats moving the ball on us well at all. Meanwhile, we should drive, drive on down the field with ease. Ohio State 52, Northwestern 10