Published Oct 4, 2019
Staff Predictions: Michigan State
Staff
Staff

COLUMBUS, Ohio - While it can certainly be said that the Buckeyes and Spartans have played some close games through the years, that is only a recent trend as the Buckeyes have historically won better than two out of every three games in the history of this series that started back in 1912, which strangely enough was a Michigan State win.

In fact, Michigan State won five of the first seven games of this series, including its only three-game win streak ever against Ohio State from 1912-1953 (trust us, they only played three times with 1912, 1952 and 1953 on the record). Ohio State finally broke through in 1959 with its first win of the series under head coach Woody Hayes with a team that included Jim Houston and Bob Ferguson.

Since 2000, the Buckeyes and Spartans have played 15 times due to the unbalanced schedule and that whole Leaders/Legends mix and the Buckeyes have been victorious 12 of those 15 times but the Spartans have derailed a pair of Ohio State seasons in their three wins this century.

And the pain goes back even before that with the 1998 win, a win over a No. 1 ranked Buckeyes team that was a 28-point favorite in Columbus. A loss that kept the Buckeyes out of the BCS title game, a shot at a national title and so much more. To make matters worse, the Buckeyes held a 17-3 first half lead as well as a 24-9 lead in the third quarter before ultimately falling 28-24.

Why did we take this bad trip down memory lane? Just to show that Michigan State has ruined a dream or two in the past and being a 20-point favorite promises nothing.

This 2019 Ohio State team appears to be a special one and hopes are high as we go and take a look at our predictions for the big game.

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Kevin Noon - Publisher

There are a lot of reasons to worry about this game if you look at the history mentioned in the opening of this story and still have viivd memories of the Big Ten Championship game, or Michael Geiger running around the field at Ohio Stadium after hitting a game winning field goal, or Renaldo Hill interception in 1998.

None of that is going to matter this year. Yes, Ohio State was a 15-point favorite in 2015, a 5.5-point favorite in 2013 and even a three-point favorite in 2011 and came up on the short end of all three of those games.

The Spartans looked absolutely pathetic against Arizona State in week three. They put up seven points and 404 yard of offense. Michigan State ran for 113 yards against ASU, the nation's No. 27 rush defense, allowing 104 yards per game. The Buckeyes are allowing about 20 yards less per game and have allowed only two rushing touchdowns on the year.

Michigan State may be averaging 269 yards per game via the pass, but that breaks down to just two touchdowns a game via the pass.

The Spartans have scored a combined 71 points in its two league games against Indiana and Northwestern. Ohio State has scored 99. Michigan State has allowed 41 points in its two league games. The Buckeyes have allowed 17. In fact, Ohio State has allowed 43 points all season long while Michigan State has yielded 75.

Yes, Michigan State has the No. 7 total defense in the nation, but that is only good enough for 4th in the Big Ten with Ohio State checking in at No. 2 (only behind Wisconsin).

The Buckeyes will continue to do what they do, put up some points and I don't see the Spartans really being able to muddy up this game enough to stay close enough to the Buckeyes to matter. And I certainly don't expect Michigan State to put up many points. Each week I play it safe and throw a few "fluke" points into the equation and most weeks I am proven wrong. Not going to do it again this week. Ohio State 42 Michigan State 9

Alex Gleitman - Recruiting Analyst

At one point, Michigan State was a team on par with Ohio State, recruiting at an extremely high level, seemingly finding the "secret sauce" to stop Urban Meyer's high-powered offense, and beating the Buckeyes in big games in 2013 (B1GCG) and 2015 (taking OSU out of the CFP).

Things have changed a bit since that 2015 season, as Meyer's teams beat Sparty three straight times by a combined score of 91-25 (average of about 30-8). Additionally, OSU has had recruiting classes ranked third (2016), second, (2017), and second (2018), while MSU has had classes ranked 18th, 33rd, and 26th over that same span. It clearly seems that Ohio State has "figured out" Michigan State, and the talent difference, at least on paper, is certainly pretty wide.

I've been doubting the Buckeyes so far this season, predicting games to be far closer than what the outcome has been. I'm now at the point where I'm becoming a believer in this team, but I'm still not all the way there---mainly because I am not sure they have faced anyone legitimate yet. While Michigan State's offense isn't all that good, their defense will certainly be a solid test for this high-octane Scarlet and Gray offense. No doubt, it will be a good bar of measurement for where things are through six games, the midway point of the regular season.

I think the defense will have a bunch of success this week once again (despite Mark Dantonio's best trick play efforts), but the offense will experience a few bumps in the road. I don't think MSU's defense will be able to keep the unit at bay for an entire 60 minutes though, as their offense will have them on the field too much, and the Buckeyes will eventually just wear them down. Ohio State 38 Michigan State 13

Keaton Maisano - Staff Writer

I am familiar with the history of Michigan State spoiling Ohio State's seasons, and I very much respect the Michigan State defense. Mark Dantonio has done a lot with the recruits he gets, and it is impressive that Michigan State continues to be relevant in a conference full of powerhouses. With that being said, this game will not be close. There will be no bad weather to even the playing field for the Spartans like in 2015.

Ohio State's defense will have no problem bottling up a Michigan State offense that has struggled more than it has succeeded. The Michigan State defense, while good, will be worn down by the amount of time they have to spend on the field, and they have not faced an offense as talented as Ohio State's offense. Justin Fields will be able to use his athleticism to give Michigan State fits, and I expect the passing game to be leaned on more in this game.

The most intriguing thing to watch will be the battle in the trenches. Ohio State's offensive line will be tested against Michigan's defensive line, and I will be interested to see if J.K. Dobbins can get loose a few times.

The Buckeyes will roll into the off week with a perfect 6-0 record. Ohio State 52 Michigan State 3

Braden Moles - Staff Writer

I'm officially off the train that Ohio State is going to face any sort of considerable challenge until they face Wisconsin later this month. Ohio State has been an unstoppable force in their first five games, and Michigan State has looked beatable in almost every game this season. The loss to Arizona State was terrible and Indiana's Michael Penix looked unstoppable against the Sparty secondary last week.

There just isn't much of a reason to think this will be a competitive matchup, and that's just looking at the players. Add in a hyped night game, the first in over two years at Ohio Stadium, and that the Buckeyes are wearing black alternate uniforms, and this will be a hungry team looking to carry over momentum from Nebraska as they prepare to head into their first off week.

While I think it's reasonable that the running backs may have their worst game of the season, it opens up the passing game and gives Justin Fields and company a chance to really show off what they can do if the offense is forced to go one-dimensional.

Michigan State is going to have issues on offense, however, that will derail their game regardless of how well the defense performs. Brian Lewerke won't be able to make a dent in Ohio State's secondary and they won't have much more luck on the ground. I'm throwing Michigan State a bone with six points here, but I wouldn't be surprised if those points come after Ohio State's first-team defense is done for the day. Ohio State 45, Michigan 6

Ross Fulton - Analyst

As is generally the case, Michigan State brings a top ranked defense (No. 2 in SP+) into their matchup with Ohio State. The Spartans are no longer a team that is particularly aggressive in coverage; largely eschewing the quarters scheme they were long known for. Instead, Michigan State will mix in lots of cover 3, QQH, and C 1.

What they will do is run coverages that make sure that they get an extra defender in the box to limit the opponent's ability to run the football and force you to throw. When OSU hasn't been able to do the latter successfully against Michigan State, they've faced closed, low scoring games. When they have hit those pass plays, it has been a comfortable win.

That said, there is one significant difference in the run game this year. Michigan State traditionally has been able to muck up the middle against the Buckeyes' tight zone run scheme. Ohio State had success last year against the Spartans once they went to outside zone. That obviously fits with what OSU does well now. Look for the Buckeyes to rely on wide zone early and often and test whether Michigan State has a plan for the play.

On offense, Michigan State has embraced more of a spread look but is still inconsistent at best. To force a close game, the Spartans will have to rely upon their defense to create turnovers. Ohio State 33 Michigan State 15

Kirk Barton - Former Captain

Another blowout. Michigan State is awful on offense and our defense has been suffocating so far. Add they are missing four OL starters and they’ll be getting murdered on Saturday.

On offense, we are making explosive plays are limiting turnovers at a crazy rate. Michigan State has a good set of DEs, but after our guys shut down Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich last year I’m very comfortable with our pass pro. Won’t be close. Ohio State 49 Michigan State 3

NevadaBuck - Bringer of Nuggets

Justin Fields and the Buckeyes head back to the Shoe to take on the Spartans in a Blackout. After Dominating out in Nebraska, Ryan Day is working to set a strong lead in the Big Ten East and his lead by his star quarterback along with his offensive line. We are watching remarkably strong offensive line and they are only getting stronger.

Defensively Chase Young is playing at a level that I’ve yet to a player play at as an Ohio State fan. He seemingly creates pressure on every pass rush and has been very tough and the running game he’s playing at the level of a Khalil Mack-type player and I believe he’ll be drafted as such. The Greg Mattison-effect has been wonderful to watch. Our defense looks consistent and will be feasting on a weekend Michigan State offensive line. Ohio State 38 Michigan State 7

@FakeUrban - Twitter Icon

I hate Michigan State. This team has saddened me way more often they should. Let’s think about 2013. We were in the Big Ten Championship game representing the Leaders Division. Wait, perhaps it was the Legends Division. Whatever the case, we played the Spartans in that championship game and lost to those guys. That’s when an idiot photographer decided to do his best paparazzi imitation and captured an image of sad me eating crappy Papa John’s pizza while sitting on a golf cart. Damn media.

Sure, we beat Sparty the following year in East Lansing while we were on our way to a national championship. But everybody wants to talk about that 2015 game when Zeke was hospitalized earlier that week from some sort of an infection that requires hospitalization. Nobody remembers that. I do (and did) so I was cautious in using him. Long story short: it rained, I didn’t run Zeke much, we didn’t score many points and some stupid windup kicker toy kicked a field goal and saddened us.

We beat them in 2016, 2017 and 2018 but you people won’t talk about that. Screw all of you. So here we are and there’s nothing more Mark Dantonio would love to do than sadden our black-dressed football team and black-dressed fans. Not black-faced fans, Justin Trudeau.

Here’s what we need to do and I’ll keep it simple. Score more points than them. Defensively, we should have little difficulty with their quarterback, Lou Werky. He won’t beat us. However, we could beat ourselves if we don’t hang onto the football or don’t throw the ball to our receivers. Let’s be mistake free and barring no major mistakes, we will win. Ohio State 38, Michigan State 13