To say that this series has been pretty one-sided for the last 20 years would be a massive understatement but we think you would struggle to find one Ohio State fan that would opt to give quarter to the hated Wolverines and want nothing more than to continue to own this series.
Yes, the Buckeyes historically got off to a 'bad start' in this series, going 0-13-2 in the first 15 matchups. The year that Ohio State state finally broke through was also the year of the Chicago Black Sox scandal, Woodrow Wilson was in the White House, Babe Ruth's rights were sold from the Red Sox to the Yankees and prohibition began in America.
Even with Ohio State breaking through and reeling off three wins a row, this series largely tilted the way of the Wolverines until the mid-50s and truthfully has been very much in Ohio State's favor outside of the 14-year stretch where former coach John Cooper could win just about any game outside of 'The Game (and The Bowl Game) with a 2-10-1 record.
During this recent run since the year 2000, Ohio State has 16 wins, seven of them coming by one score and three losses, the last one occurring in 2011, the one-year stint of Luke Fickell as head coach and the Buckeyes came within one slightly overthrown pass of winning that game too.
This year will mark the meeting of ranked teams for the umpteenth time in this series with Ohio State not being ranked in the 2011, 2004 and 2001 games in this stretch. Michigan has fared worse not being ranked in six of the games through the 2000 season.
The last four times that Ohio State has been ranked in the top-three nationally, all four of those games have gone to Ohio State but have been oh-so-close with the Buckeyes winning by three (2016), one (2013), three (2006) and five (2002). That just goes to show that this series can always produce a tough game, even when one team may be considered to be a solid favorite.
How do we see this game shaping up this year? Will any one cross the lines and pick the Wolverines to win for the first time since '11? We make our weekly picks.
Kevin Noon - Publisher
As an undergraduate at The Ohio State University I never knew what it was like for Ohio State to defeat 'That Team Up North'. I had read about it, I had seen grainy old VHS copies of wins against Michigan, but I never had the opportunity to witness one, in person, during my time as a student.
Oh yes, I was there for the 'greatest win in Ohio State history' a 13-13 tie in 1992. I was ready to rush the field if Ohio State could go on and win the game but the Buckeyes went for the tie and left so many of us, hungry for that elusive win, standing in 9A, wondering what we should do next.
We opted to drink.
Then again, we did that a lot, so that was not much of a departure.
With only one win through the 2004 season, there has to be a lot of kids who have gone through Michigan who have similar stories to mine, not knowing what it was like to see victory in the big game. I can almost empathize with them.
Almost.
As for this year, it would be fair to say that 'The Game' does not have as much on the line as it does in other years. The spot in the B1G Championship Game is already locked up. Most of the experts believe that Ohio State could afford to lose this game and as long as the Buckeyes win in the B1GCG, still get into the playoff.
But how many 12-0 regular seasons have the Buckeyes had in the past (the answer is not many)? How many first shots at Michigan will Ryan Day get as head coach (the answer is one, and only one)? How many final games against Michigan will guys like Chase Young, JK Dobbins, Jeff Okudah, Malik Harrison et al get and have the chance to carry a perfect record against the rival for the rest of the days (the answer, once again is only once).
Michigan, to its credit, has been playing a lot better down the stretch than it was earlier in the season. Since the second half against Penn State started, they have looked better in the throw game and on the defensive side of the ball. The argument can be made that Notre Dame is grossly overrated and then the rest of the schedule mirrors who Ohio State has played through the season and the Buckeyes made it look better against Maryland, Michigan State and Indiana.
None of that matters, I am not concerned with any sort of transitive property in football. This is going to come down to a couple of things. Michigan will not be able to stop the Ohio State run. Ohio State will stop the Michigan run. Michigan will break off a few big plays with its freaky-good wide receivers but the success will stop there. Ohio State will clean up the turnover bug that bit the Buckeyes in the Penn State game and while this will not be any sort of walk in the park, the Buckeyes will come out with the focus to finish this regular season perfect with a hard-fought win against the hated rivals and will take another step to evening the overall series. Ohio State 35 Michigan 23
P.S. - Never forget Marcus Hall
Alex Gleitman - Recruiting Analyst
The Game is finally here and it’s definitely a unique one, as far as implications, versus the standard.
On one side, this is Michigan’s national title. Jim Harbaugh is desperate for his first win against the Buckeyes. Don Brown wants to avenge last year’s embarrassment. With no shot at the Big Ten East or CFP, the Wolverines have nothing to lose and can lay it all on the line. They’re a program playing with a ton of confidence right now, and look like a different team since halftime of the Penn State game.
On the other side, this game doesn’t mean all that much to Ohio State as far as impact on their season. They’ve already clinched a trip to Indianapolis. A loss this week and a win in the B1G championship game still lands them a spot in the CFP. The Buckeyes have been a bit sloppy at times the last couple weeks, and haven’t had to face a tight game in a hostile road environment all year. With Ryan Day coaching in his first Michigan game and Justin Fields playing in his first, without having any ties to the rivalry, there’s a lot of “show me” for the Scarlet and Gray in this one.
All that said, I think this is going to be another classic between these two rivals. Ohio State is absolutely the better team, but for all of the reasons mentioned above, that doesn’t mean they will be the better team for 3 hours on Saturday afternoon.
Expect Michigan’s defense to put a ton of pressure on Justin Fields with an aggressive front 7, and put efforts into stopping the run, forcing OSU to beat them downfield in the passing game. On the other side of the ball, look for a lot of zone read and RPO to keep the Silver Bullets guessing, get the ball out of Shea Patterson’s hands quickly, and negate Chase Young as much as possible.
For Ohio State, they will look to keep Michigan one-dimensional on offense, and for that to happen, they need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage against the UM offensive line. On offense, they need to establish a consistent passing game early to open up the running lanes a bit and get JK Dobbins rolling.
I’ve gone back and forth all week as to how this one will play out and the only thing I can come to is that I think either way, it comes down to the last minute. I originally picked Michigan 27-24 (ask Kevin, it’s true!), but after digging into some things a bit more, I think the Buckeyes pull it out somehow and I’m predicting a final score of - Ohio State 29 Michigan 27
Keaton Maisano - Staff Writer
Building up to this game, Ohio State has looked consistently dominant while Michigan has had some ups and downs. The Buckeyes on paper are the better team, but it is said that numbers and statistics can be thrown out in rivalry games. This is the biggest rivalry of them all, and this game will test the 2019 Buckeyes in ways that they have yet to be tested.
Before this game, the toughest road test Ohio State has had to endure was the trip to Lincoln, Nebraska, and that game was not all that difficult looking back on it. There is a chance that the matchup with Michigan could take place in some less than ideal weather, which will definitely benefit the Wolverines. Also add in the fact that the Wolverines have nothing to lose in front of a home crowd that is hungry to upset the Buckeyes, and this game is daunting for a first-year coach in Ryan Day.
The beginning of the game will be crucial, because if the Buckeyes can jump out to an early lead, Michigan will be forced to drop back and pass, giving Chase Young an opportunity to pin his ears back and come after Shea Patterson. I expect Young to have a huge impact on this game, and he will be the difference in the second half of a close game. The difference in this game could very well come down to the fact that the Buckeyes have Young and Michigan does not.
Outside of how Michigan's offensive line attempts to handle Young, the battle between Ohio State's secondary and Michigan's wide receivers will be crucial. If Patterson is able to get comfortable, the Wolverines will be able to build the confidence they need to truly threaten the Buckeyes.
At the end of the day, however, this game will come down to the run game. Especially if the weather is less than kind, I expect the team that is more physical in the trenches to win the game. Ohio State has been the better rushing team all season, so I would expect that to continue on Saturday. This game will be close and come down to the wire, but Ohio State will make one or two more plays to win. Ohio State 28 Michigan 20
Braden Moles - Staff Writer
I've gone back and forth on this one. I have not once wavered this season from believing that Ohio State will win, but as the season has progressed, the margin of victory has changed drastically. Going into the year, I was predicting a win for the Buckeyes by maybe a field goal, at most one possession. After Michigan lost to Wisconsin, that increased, thinking Ohio State may win by three possessions like in 2018 based on the evident opposite directions the teams were going on. Now, while Ohio State has been arguably as dominant at this point in the season, the Wolverines have really stepped their game up and won each of their last four contests (including Notre Dame and Indiana) by at least 25 points.
As for the content of these these teams, while Michigan has certainly hit their stride as of late, I'm still not sold on Shea Patterson as someone who can beat Ohio State through the air. He'll be going up against a secondary comprised of 2020 NFL draft picks and unlike anything he has played. Michigan has four good receivers in Nico Collins, Ronnie Bell, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black but they're going to have trouble getting open, and even if they do, I'm not convinced Patterson can really capitalize against this secondary.
The Wolverines' defense is ranked fifth in total offense allowed and 12th in scoring defense, but based on Ohio State's positioning as the No. 1 scoring offense, I don't see the Wolverines being able to hold Ohio State off all afternoon. The Wolverines may get a few stops and even force some turnovers (1.7 turnovers per game) but Ohio State will find their opportunities to move down the field as there's no evidence that the stellar execution displayed by Ryan Day's team will stop in Ann Arbor.
With at least a functioning offense and a comparable overall defense, I think Michigan will be a tougher test for the Buckeyes than Penn State was. However, as Day said after the game Saturday, the rivalry is something Ohio State lives for and prepares for every day. Those mental mistakes that plagued the Buckeyes against the Nittany Lions won't show themselves against the Wolverines, and the final score against Michigan will be more reflective of a complete performance by Ohio State against one of the best teams in the Big Ten. Day will complete an undefeated regular season in his first year as Ohio State's head coach. Ohio State 31, Michigan 17
Ross Fulton - Analyst
After a slow start Michigan (now 10th in SP+) becomes perhaps the biggest challenge on Ohio State's schedule. The things that the Wolverines have going for them are largely intangible -- playing at home, with no pressure, and the Buckeyes coming off a physical game against Penn State and not needing a win to get into the playoff. Otherwise, Ohio State is not a great matchup for Michigan. The Wolverines are undersized on defense and weakest at defensive tackle. They have been able to overcome that somewhat by having technically sound defensive ends and spilling everything outside. But it is not a good fit against the Buckeyes' very effective ground game. Look for Ohio State to seek to establish the run inside with J.K. Dobbins and Justin Fields on tight zone and counter trey, the latter of which Michigan struggled defending this year.
Due to Ohio State's success last season and a lack of man-coverage corners, Wolverine defensive coordinator Don Brown is using less cover-1 man free and more split safety looks with "trap 2" and "doubles." But again, doubles is less effective if you're facing receivers that can threaten across the field. And 2-high looks leave Michigan open to Fields' scrambling. Ohio State will likely seek to establish its usual underneath attack with follow-pivot and snag, before trying to hit a deep shot behind a doubles safety with a deep post or wheel route. Michigan may not be able to slow down the OSU offense when it’s ahead of schedule. Brown will instead likely take some chances with stunts and blitzes to confuse the Ohio State offensive line and/or catch Fields holding the ball to get the Buckeyes behind the chains.
The Wolverine offense has picked up in recent weeks as they have been increasingly able to utilize Josh Gattis' run-pass options. But Ohio State's 1-high double scheme is largely to designed to eliminate conflict for the overhang players and so limit the backside slot RPO slot hitches and slants. In reality, Michigan has been at their best featuring their future NFL wide receivers Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and slot Ronnie Bell on the outside. This will make for an interesting matchup -- because teams have not really challenged Buckeye corners Jeffrey Okudah and Damon Arnette this year. Look for Greg Mattison and Jeff Hafley to give Michigan underneath outside routes and rely upon the front six to limit an average Wolverine run game.
The Buckeye defense has allowed three touchdowns this season where an opponent has to drive the length of the field. It seems unlikely that Michigan can score 21 points without turnovers or special teams to create short drives. As always, Ohio State's goal is to get to third and long and let Chase Young tee off against Michigan's offensive tackles. Ohio State 29, Michigan 19
Kirk Barton - Former Captain
Ryan Day has the biggest test of his coaching career on this upcoming Saturday and the anointing oil will be put away in a hurry if he loses as a nine point favorite in the Big House. Justin Field has to have better ball security in The Game or it will haunt our efforts and it gives an inferior team with similar talent a chance to stick with us.
Defensively, I look for Greg Mattison and Al Washington to get a very unfriendly welcome back to the Big House and I believe Michigan will score more points than we are accustomed to giving up. We have seen the worst schedule of quarterbacks in OSU history this year, and Shea Patterson is actually the best one we have played to this point. His ability to scramble and get away from pressure is something we must contain in order to win this game. Ohio State 35 Michigan 28
NevadaBuck - Bringer of Nuggets
The most dominant OSU team of my lifetime is at the BIGGEST game of the year and what surely will be their biggest test. I am not sure this team has been tested like it will be in the Big House, as our road tests haven't been versus loud crowds or good teams. Michigan is surging after reaching rock bottom versus Wisconsin and Penn State, and the only was to deem this season a success is to pull a win out in The Game. If it can happen in 1969, it can happen here.
Chase Young will continue his campaign to be the second player in CFB history to win the Heisman, and I think the groundswell for him will only grow the next two games, especially if LSU does not win the SEC title game. I look for him to have a monster effort here, but I also look for Harbaugh and Warinner to have a plan to deal with him in terms of chipping and sliding... Ohio State 24 Michigan 21
@FakeUrban - Twitter Icon
Death, taxes and beating the team up north. It’s that easy. We’ve got better players, better coaches and Ohio is a lot better place to live. But this won’t be a rout. Here’s why. Little Jimmy is coming into this game as an underdog. This could be a lifetime changing victory if he finally pulls this one out. Sure there was that close game three years ago in Columbus when he was left bitterly disappointed. But we’re now ranked #1. And we’re favored. Remember what happened a year ago... they were highly ranked and favored. Sixty-two points later, we sent them home.
Ryan Day thought it would be cute to steal their co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach. Sure it was fun to see Harbaugh react to that, but I’ve had my own plan. Since June, I’ve spent about an hour or two every week to cleanse Greg Mattison and Al Washington from their time in Ann Arbor. There have been times I even donned a HAZMAT suit just to wash any of Harbaugh’s influence off them. Let’s hope they react negatively just like you all do when they cross the Ohio State line on Friday entering that state up north.
It’s all about our defense stopping their offense. If we can do that, the ballgame will end quickly. We are better than them at every position group. But their guys will play with emotion. They will play with heart. And they’ll come out with more enthusiasm than they did when they beat Middle Tennessee and Army. This won’t be high-scoring, either. Don’t be surprised if the score is tight in the third quarter, either. But you’ll know who’ll win. Ohio State 31, That Team Up North 23