Season Predictions

I have been asked for my prediction of the 2016 season since the game ended against Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl in January. I have done my best to deflect and speak in vague generalities up until this point because I really did not have a great idea of what this team was going to look like.

Fast forward to today. I am still not quite sure that I know what this team is going to look like with 16 new starters, two new coaches and a much tougher schedule than in years past with road games to Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State.

But I cannot put it off any longer, it is time to make a decision or get out.

I feel that this team is going to come together better than most of the pundits are expecting. While this team is short on experience, the leadership and experience that it does have with guys like JT Barrett, Pat Elflein and Raekwon McMillan is good for one win that this team would otherwise lose. Couple that with some of the best recruiting in the nation to keep the cupboards deep with talent at every position and giving the coaches something that they have not had to contend with over previous years, namely options. Last year it was known who was going to be out there and you would pretty much ride or die with that group. Now, the Buckeyes are looking to have rotations at receiver, defensive line, linebacker and defensive backfield. That can end up being dangerous if there is too short of a hook on some of these guys, but it also gives the coaches more pieces to try and plug and play to find that sweet spot once the Buckeyes get into league play and beyond.

Oklahoma is going to be a mighty challenge but not an un-winnable one. I still am going back and forth if that is going to be the game that will trip them up. If Ohio State is able to find solutions with guys like Tracy Sprinkle, Mike Hill and others in the interior defensive line, I think the Buckeyes will be able to bottle up much of OU's running game and this game will become a coinflip. If the Buckeyes are still uncertain up the guy, OU won't be uncertain and will take it to the heart of the run defense.

I think the Ohio State four-game night run is going to be its undoing however in terms of trying to stay perfect if they do survive OU. Night games are fun for fans and recruits but that is a lot of sitting around for a team that "has not been there before" in terms of most of its players being starters in games where sitting around the hotel and watching everyone else play will become the norm. I think Ohio State will lose one of those four games (and it won't be Northwestern).

At the end, I see Ohio State either going 11-1 or 10-2 and winning the B1G East. Not ready to buy into this Michigan hype yet and Michigan State is a few pieces short of being the MSU of the past couple of years. The Buckeyes will go on to the B1G Champ game to beat Iowa and make the CFP Playoff.

I see the Buckeyes running the table and making the college football playoff. Sound crazy? Our HC is Urban Meyer, who has done stellar things with far weaker rosters than the one he is working with now. Are they young? Sure. But so is Mick Jagger's newest baby momma. Just because you are young doesn't mean you can't produce.

Offensively, we have a veteran at the most important spot in JT Barrett. We have some hungry skill guys and a very talented OL. Once Mike Weber starts eating up chunks of yardage, look out.

Defensively, we have a fantastic set of DEs who will heat up any passing attack we face-off against. I think Raekwon will have monster final year in Columbus and will get drafted very, very high. The backend will mature and be as good as years past.

In closing, you have to remember that we out talent every team we face and we have Urban Meyer as our head coach. That alone makes me excited.

I think this season will be a mirror image of some in recent past. Struggle mightily in the beginning of the year, but roar down the stretch as the young guys gain more and more game experience. Having JT Barrett as your QB almost guarantees that you will win 10 games as the QB position is just that important. If the Oline stays heathy then this team will likely be in the playoff at the end of the year and will be a problem for anyone to matchup with. I've got the Buckeyes finishing the year at 10-3 and will be happy when they out perform my expectation

Whereas last year Ohio State had to live up to perhaps unreachable expectations, this year expect a younger, looser team where guys are just happy to have the opportunity to play. As with 2014, the first few games could be sloppy. But you should see an enormous amount of growth over 12 games.

I do not think the offense will have difficulty scoring points. Although the lack of offensive line depth is concerning, the Buckeyes should receive the dividends of having offensive coordinator Ed Warinner in the booth with a clear line of play calling communication and authority. J.T. Barrett may exceed expectations, as Warinner and Urban Meyer will maximize his strengths by featuring an up-tempo offense heavy on reads and run-pass options. Curtis Samuel will receive more carries than people expect at tailback, and will have the most touches outside of Barrett. And Noah Brown will establish himself as the definitive number one receiver.

Two questions remain defensively. One, can Ohio State’s defensive tackles and linebackers stop the run? And two, can the Buckeyes limit explosive plays? Ohio State may have to win some shootouts early. But Greg Schiano will most notably distinguish himself from Chris Ash on third down, where he will bring man and zone blitzes from a variety of angles. The Buckeyes should excel if they can keep teams behind schedule, which allows standout ends Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard to rush the quarterback.

I predict a 10-2 record. If I had to guess, I think Ohio State will lose at Oklahoma, and may drop one of a difficult back-to-back away stretch at Penn State and Wisconsin. But Ohio State will get revenge on Michigan State and close strong by beating Michigan to win the Big Ten East. The Buckeyes will then win the Big Ten championship game. This is the year I believe a 2-loss team will get in the playoff and I think Ohio State gets the last spot.

I really don’t like making early-season predictions. As we learned, OSU was preseason No. 1 and ESPN talking-head David Pollock essentially said “don’t bother playing the season,” only to see the Buckeyes fail to make the playoff.

This team has caused me great consternation, but I think I have a more optimistic outlook than some of my peers. I predict OSU will finish the season 12-1, winner of the Big Ten championship, and return to the playoff for the second time in three seasons.

How they will get there:

OSU is not a good team right now, there’s no hiding that. Coach Meyer’s admission that the offensive line “is having issues” is code for it’s in bad shape. That being said, I think the upside with this team is greater than the 2015 squad. With Elliot gone, expect OSU to return to more of a shotgun-spread offense that was a staple of Florida under Meyer. With Cardale Jones now in Buffalo, JT. Barrett is the true No. 1 QB, and I, once his biggest detractor, am a huge fan of. He is an incredibly smart decision-maker with the ball in his hands, and should contend for Big Ten offensive player of the year and be on the fringe of the Heisman discussion. He is clearly more comfortable as the centerpiece of OSU football than he was at this time last year, and I think the offense should be more balanced than it was last year as a result.

However, I little confidence in this team’s ability to win on the road at Oklahoma. That team is head-spinningly good, and I can’t see the offensive line being in good enough shape by week three to create enough offense.

It should be clear-skies after that game, however. This team strikes me as one that will get better each week given their youth, and I don’t think the lack of returning starters is as big a problem as outsiders may think. First-time starters Parris Campbell, Mike Webber, Sam Hubbard, Tracy Sprinkle and Noah Brown aren’t new to the program, so they know what to expect. In this, Meyer’s first year with a squad completely assembled by him and his staff, I expect OSU to complete the transition into a national powerhouse that it wasn’t under Tressel. I think Meyer and his staff will do a better job of coaching than they did last year, when they allowed the quarterback circus to continue through most of the season, and coached them straight out of the game against Michigan State. With Michigan awakening from their down years under Rodriguez and Hoke, Meyer is singularly focused on making sure they knock off Big Blue at home against a team and coach he very clearly hates. It takes time for a coach to really shape a program, and I don't think Michigan, despite returning 18 starters, is good enough to beat a team that Meyer has spent five years shaping to be a national powerhouse.

That being said, I do think for the third straight year we’ll see the winner of the Big Ten Championship in the playoff, which may become something of a default for the foreseeable future.

Tampa is very nice in January and it'll be even nicer when we make it to the College Football Playoff national championship. Yep. Who cares that we are one of the most inexperienced teams in the country? We will win the championship of Ohio (I'm looking at you, Bowling Green) . We'll then win the Oklahoma state championship (Tulsa and Stoops U.). The Big Ten East is ours. We'll beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship, head down I-75 to Atlanta and beat Nick Saban in the semis.

J.T. will be the quarterback you've come to know and love. Our line will struggle at times but our wide receivers will wow you. Defensively we'll get better. Sure we have some tough tests on the road at Oklahoma, Wisconsin (59-0 losers), Penn State and That Team Up North State but we'll get through them. It won't be pretty at times but have some faith, people. My two most important players will be my senior Australian punter kid and my German kicker kid. I don't mean to sound like Tressel, but the punt might be the most important play of the game at times this season. And we'll need some field goals.

So book your hotel rooms now. Deals won't get any cheaper for Atlanta and Tampa.

FINAL RECORD: 12-0

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State over Iowa

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL: Ohio State over Alabama

COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State over Oklahoma State (officially taking the title of Oklahoma State Champions - and National Champions)