Ohio State Buckeyes opponent breakdowns: Florida Atlantic

The college football season is still weeks away but anticipation is starting to build as the calendar turns from June to July and we are closing in on less than two months from the first kickoffs of the season.

Much has been made of Ohio State’s schedule this season with its lack of a Power Five non-conference opponent on it, but don’t let anyone convince you that this schedule does not pose more than its fair share of problems for a team that will be breaking in not only a new quarterback but essentially a new head coach as Ryan Day takes over for Urban Meyer as the Buckeyes look to defend their back-to-back Big Ten championships.

The lack of a P5 non-conference opponent may overshadow the fact that Ohio State has about as difficult of a crossover schedule as a Big Ten East team can have with games against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern and the schedule maker did this team no favors with a final two of Penn State and Michigan to wrap up the regular season in November.

As the dog days of summer are here, we are breaking down Ohio State’s schedule on a game-by-game basis and we start our series today with the season opening game against Florida Atlantic.

Last Year: 5-7, 3-5 Conference USA (East)

The 2018 season was a challenge for Lane Kiffin and the Owls as FAU never was able to gain much traction. A season-opening thrashing at the hands of Oklahoma to the tune of 63-14 was not entirely unexpected and the Owls bounced back with an impressive 33-27 win over Air Force and then a 49-28 route of Division I-FCS Bethune Cookman. FAU would go 1-4 to start league play, including a devastating 25-24 loss to Middle Tennessee, a game where FAU would hold a 24-10 lead in the 3rd quarter only to be outscored 15-0 down the stretch including yielding the game-winning touchdown and two-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the game.

Four of FAU’s league losses were decided by eight points or less including the last two losses of the season, at North Texas (41-38) and vs. Charlotte (27-24) showing that FAU could play teams close but just could not get over the hump against good teams with only one win against a tea with a winning record (FIU).

Offense was not a problem for this team in 2018 as the Owls led C-USA in both yards and points. Everyone knows that Lane Kiffin may be a bit of a polarizing figure but he knows offense and he will find a system that works best with his system and recruit athletes either directly out of high school or by way of transfer to make things work.

There will be some new faces with the losses of leading rusher Devin Singletary along with leading receiver Jovon Durante. Top backup to Singletary, Kerrith Whyte also left early and got picked up by the Chicago Bears. There is a lot of production from the 2018 team that is off the roster and while there will be young guys looking to step into those roles, how quickly will they be able to adjust and with a week one game against Ohio State, the pressure really will be on to find guys to fit into those spots.

People are going to focus on the quarterback position, especially with the transfer of Deondre Francois. You would not expect him to go there if he was not going to get the gig but there are a pair of sophomore quarterbacks with Chris Robison (formerly of Oklahoma) and Nick Tronti (formerly of Indiana) who both will try and put their claim on the position.

The best overall player on this offensive side of the ball may very well be a tight end with Harrison Bryant. While the NFL is biding its time to get Bryant into the league, he had a solid 662-yard, 45-reception season last year with four scores. He certainly won’t be FAU’s leading pass-catcher by the end of the season but Ohio State has shown some deficiencies in the past in covering prolific tight ends and better have a plan in place for this opener or Bryant could have a big game.

Running back will see a former Alabama player who was there at the same time as Kiffin get a chance with B.J. Emmons. Emmons transferred by way of JUCO and had 694 yards on 150 carries and 10 scores for Hutchinson CC. He will have some big shoes to fill at FAU but there will be a lot of opportunity both at RB and WR for players to step up with what this team has lost.

On first glance, FAU was giving up half-a-point more on defense than it was scoring on offense. While that does not always predict success or failure, it is a pretty good indication that there were some serious things wrong with the FAU defense as evidenced by the fact that this team was giving up close to 32 points per game last year.

Kiffin has been trying to find the right guy to lead the defense and this year he will have his third defensive coordinator with Glenn Spencer, most recently of Charlotte. Last year was by far the worst year of defense under a Kiffin-led squad and a change was absolutely necessary.

There will be a good amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball but that might not be the worst thing for this team as it struggled as much as it did. Some of the key players are coming back including linebacker Rashad Smith. Smith is not the size of a linebacker in the Big Ten and might be viewed as a bullet in the new Ohio State defensive system but Smith makes plays with 86 tackles and four interceptions last season. He is not going to be a big player in the pass-rush, he is more of a run-stopper and his name could be called a lot in the season opener as the Buckeyes apply pressure to the Owls at various points.

Former Louisville defensive end Tim Bonner is another player to watch. He has played a couple of seasons now at FAU and was among the team leaders in sacks with three.

This game might be more of a danger game if the Owls were bringing their 2018 offense and 2017 defense to Columbus. Neither are making the trip and it is going to take a pretty heroic effort by Florida Atlantic to put up much resistance against Ohio State. That does not mean that the Buckeyes are going to roll in this game, the Buckeyes have their own laundry list of questions going into this game including how the new-look defense will fare against a team not wearing scarlet or gray in the offseason, how a new quarterback will fare in his first extended action on the field and how a new offensive line will perform with what is essentially four new starters for Ohio State (even though Jonah Jackson, Wyatt Davis, Joshua Alabi and Branden Bowen all have career starts).

If Ohio State is sloppy with the ball, if the passing game is not there, if JK Dobbins gets off to a slow start and if the defense does not correct giving up big plays, Florida Atlantic could pull off what would be deemed a pretty monumental upset. But it really seems as if Ohio State would have to play one of its worst games and that does not even take into account that FAU would have to play one of its best games.

Chance for Florida Atlantic to win: Low

While we keep track of a lot of things around here, Conference USA football is one of the things that we don’t watch with any great regularity.

For as much as we talked about how FAU has a lot of turnover on its roster, one thing you cannot deny is that Lane Kiffin is not going to be a coach who will not have talent on his roster, it is just a matter of how quickly he can get players to buy-in and perform at a high level. If this team can sort out its quarterback derby in a timely manner and in a way where they don’t lose the entire room in the process and are able to find some guys who can catch the ball from positions other than the tight end spot, the offense should take a step in the right direction.

The defense should be better than last year but you could also say that it would have to really work at being worse than it was in 2018.

Week two has a date with Central Florida at home, probably a tough ask at that point to win. But even if FAU starts 0-2 on the year, the schedule lightens up with Ball State and Wagner before a road game at Charlotte.

If a couple of balls bounce the right way, this could be an eight win team but the safe bet right now is to say that FAU will finish the season at 7-5 and make it to a bowl game after starting the year with a pair of losses against highly-ranked opponents.