Ohio State's tough final stretch is here.
The No. 4 Buckeyes will host No. 7 Michigan State Saturday afternoon in Columbus.
To find out more about the Spartans, we asked SpartanMag associate editor Paul Konyndyk about the confidence level in East Lansing, how Ohio State can beat Michigan State's pass defense and what he expects from Saturday's game.
Is there a level of increased confidence around East Lansing about this Michigan State team? Does it feel like this Spartans team is a top-10 team and a group that's in the hunt for a conference title?
"There is an increased level of confidence that this Michigan State program is headed in the right direction under Mel Tucker. Going 2-5 last year shocked a lot of people, who’d come to view 7-6 as a down year. To see Michigan State start the season 9-1 has certainly bolstered the confidence of the entire fanbase. The program is in good hands with Tucker, and has the resources to build a contender in the Big Ten East.
This team feels a lot like Michigan State’s 10-3 team in 2017. That ball club did the most they could with the team that they had. The Spartan defense in ’17 was a lot better than this defense is.This team is built on a balanced offense with explosive skill personnel, a solid special teams unit, and a defense that has had a lot of issues, notably giving up a ton of passing yards, but also a knack for making big plays in the red zone.
With exception of a loss at Purdue, Michigan State has beaten every team it should beat, which is serious progress. And for the most part, the Spartans haven’t played down to any opponent on their schedule.
We probably saw the best of Michigan State in a win over Michigan, and it’s no coincidence that the Spartans played as well they did in that game because it is probably the healthiest they’ve been in a while, coming off the bye week.
Is this a Top 10 team?
How do you quantify that?
I guess you could base it on level of talent, and if that is the litmus test, I don’t think Michigan State is a Top 10 team. The Spartans have some very talented individuals. Kenneth Walker III is worthy of Heisman consideration. Jayden Reed is as a good as any wide receiver in the Big Ten. Payton Thorne is every bit as capable a quarterback as the best quarterbacks of the Mark Dantonio era, and I’d argue that he is further along than Kirk Cousins or Connor Cook at the same stage of his development.
That said, the Spartans don’t have a championship caliber talent in the two-deep like they did in 2015 when Michigan State shocked the Buckeyes in Columbus before beating a rock-solid Iowa team in the Big Ten Championship.
This is a good Michigan State team playing up to its potential, and sometimes beyond. This team is raising the bar for the Spartan program moving forward. They are not, however, a team that I believe is capable of beating a team as talented as Ohio State without the Buckeyes helping them out."
Is Kenneth Walker III better than you expected him to be? What makes him a dynamic runner, and what's Ohio State's game plan to stop him?
"I thought Walker had the potential to be Michigan State’s most impactful portal addition, and after watching him in spring ball, and hearing what his teammates were saying, I felt that the Wake Forest transfer had a really good chance at a 1,000-yard season.
It’s not like Walker came out of nowhere, as a sophomore last season he was tied for third in the ACC in rushing touchdowns. So, I thought he’d be good, and perhaps even an All-Big Ten caliber back. In no way did I expect him to be as good as he’s been.
The numbers through 10 games are eye-popping – 1,474 yards, 17 touchdowns, 147 avg. – and the fact that Walker continues to put up big numbers despite the fact that he is running against a loaded box makes what he has done all the more impressive.
Last weekend, Maryland brought a safety down into the box to stop Walker and it had some success in the first half limiting his effectiveness on the ground. Bringing a safety up, however, enabled Michigan State to take deep shots against single coverage, to the tune of three passing touchdowns. Michigan tried to stop Walker with a Bear defense, and that should have done the trick, because a Bear defense should stop the run. The Spartans tweaked their run-blocking scheme a little bit, and Walker was undeterred.
I really don’t see Ohio State using gimmicks to stop Kenneth Walker. Ohio State is going to challenge its defense to get off blocks, and win at the point of attack. That’s the best way to stop Walker. Win at the line of scrimmage, wall him off, and stay disciplined so when he bounces it outside, there’s a guy there to make the tackle.
Walker is special tailback. He has that tough-to-find combination of vision, cutback ability, and hard-to-simulate acceleration. I’ve covered several good running backs at Michigan State. Walker is the first that I’ve covered that looks faster in person than he does on film.
Last week, however, Walker didn’t seem to have as much of burst. He is a little bit banged up coming into this game, and that’s a good thing for the Buckeyes. I don’t think we’ll see the same back against the Buckeyes that embarrassed Michigan a few weeks ago."
What about the rest of the offense? Who's a player or two that could exploit Ohio State's pass defense and why?
"I mentioned Jayden Reed earlier, and he is without question a wide receiver that has the ability to make a lot of plays. Reed has always been an explosive wide receiver with big-play potential downfield. But this season, he is more of a complete player. He’s capable of making tough catches over the middle. He’s capable of making catches against press coverage as we saw last week when he hit caught eight passes for 100-plus yards with two touchdowns against Maryland. Reed is also a darn good blocker, which he’s shown time and time again. It started in the opener against Northwestern when he straight up wrecked a linebacker as a run-blocker on a Walker touchdown run.
The thing that hurts Michigan State in this game is not having Jalen ‘Speedy’ Nailor, who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Nailor had more than 600 receiving yards and six touchdowns at the time of his injury. And like Reed, he was a legit big-play threat. Nailor and Reed together are tough to handle.
Junior Tre Mosley has done a nice job as Nailor’s replacement. He has 28 receptions for 417 yards and two touchdowns for the Spartans. Mosley isn’t, however, as explosive as Nailor.
Redshirt freshman Montorie Foster is a player to watch. He is starting to come on at receiver. Foster scored his first touchdown last weekend on a 51-yard flea-flicker. He is a dynamic athlete.
Tight ends Connor Heyward and Tyler Hunt will both factor into the passing game. Maliq Carr is another tight end to watch.
Is Michigan State's pass defense as bad as the numbers show and what should Ohio State's approach be to facing that unit?
Michigan State’s pass defense isn’t good. The Spartans have given up a lot of yards, and, early on, I would have been inclined to blame some of that on scheme and inexperience. Against Miami, for example, Michigan State played way off and gave D’Eriq King free rein on underneath routes. There have been times where Michigan State’s pass defense has looked like it was getting better, but I think when you look at those games, you’ll see that the defensive line had a lot to do with the pass defense looking better.
Michigan State’s pass defense was better last weekend against Maryland than it had been against Purdue one week earlier, and some of that had to do with a couple of guys coming back from injury in Marqui Lowery and Ronald Williams. Lowery, a Louisville transfer, and Williams, an Alabama transfer, play the corner position with confidence and physicality.
So, as bad as Michigan State has been on pass defense, I think there are still some solid individual players on the back end. The strength of the secondary has been at the safety position with senior Xavier Henderson and sophomore Angelo Grose. Nickel back has also been a bright spot where Darius Snow has been very good at times.
Michigan State’s safeties have been a lot better against the run than they’ve been against the pass. Sometimes, those safeties have misread run, allowing some deep ball completions.
At this point in the season, I’m not sure what Michigan State can do to shore up the pass defense beyond what it has done to this point. Staying healthy would help, but injuries have plagued the group from the beginning of the season.
If Michigan State wins this game, what will it mean for the larger context of its season?
Obviously, if Michigan State wins the game, it will put itself in excellent position to earn the program’s second trip to the College Football Playoff. It would set up a scenario much like the Spartans had in 2015. If Michigan State were to beat Ohio State and close out the regular season with a win at home against Penn State, and a win in the Big Ten Championship game. I don’t see the CFP Committee denying the Spartans a spot in the playoffs.
How do you think this game's going to go and why?
"Michigan State has exceeded all expectations and is one of the best stories in football this season. Picked by many pundits to be among the worst performing Power Five teams in the country entering the season, the Spartans enter this game with a chance to take control of the Big Ten East with a win over the Buckeyes.
Michigan State has beaten Ohio State in similar games a handful of times during the Dantonio era. The Spartans won a brutal Big Ten Championship against the Buckeyes in 2013 and defeated Ohio State in Columbus in 2015 with a back-up quarterback and great defense.
To win a game like this, Michigan State has to deliver a defensive performance that we haven’t seen to this point in the season, and a performance that this banged up defense isn’t capable of delivering.
Anything can happen in college football, and upsets happen every week. Michigan State simply does not have the juice on defense to win this game unless the Buckeyes play tight or take Michigan State lightly, which I doubt will happen.
With Kenneth Walker III running the football and Payton Thorne triggering the offense, I can see the potential for Michigan State to score some points in this game the way Purdue did last weekend. I do not, however, see any way for the Spartans to get the stops they need on defense to keep this game competitive into the fourth quarter.
I envision Michigan State moving the ball with success in the first half against the Buckeyes, and perhaps even punching the ball into the end zone a couple of times, but I think the Spartans will struggle to stop the best offense they’ll face this season. Eventually, the score will snowball on the Spartans."
Prediction: Ohio State 48, Michigan State 24