Published Nov 10, 2020
Recruiting Roundtable: Derrick Davis' decision, ranking bumps, flip targets
Joseph Hastings  •  DottingTheEyes
Recruiting Reporter

The Ohio State Buckeyes recently suffered a key loss on the recruiting trail as Rivals100 defensive back Derrick Davis announced his commitment to LSU on Saturday.

This was a tough one as Davis has been a priority for a long time and was Ohio State's top remaining DB target in this cycle. Even so, there is a lot to look forward to for the Buckeyes when it comes to the future of the program.

In this edition of "Recruiting Roundtable," Andy Anders and Joseph Hastings share their reactions to Davis' decision, evaluate which 2021 commits have done enough to earn a bump in the next Rivals rankings update and talk about potential flip targets for the staff.

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1. Reaction to Derrick Davis' decision to commit to LSU.

Anders: Honestly my first reaction has nothing to do with Ohio State and everything to do with Penn State.

Given that Elijah Jeudy, the No. 8 prospect in the state of Pennsylvania, released a top five in April before committing to Georgia -- which he has since decommitted from -- that didn’t include Penn State, the Nittany Lions will miss out on each of their home state’s top nine prospects.

For a team trying to compete with the powers of college football, missing out on that much in-state talent is a huge red flag.

I thought Penn State had the inside track on Davis for a while, with all the visits he’s taken to State College and his relationships there. Clearly Penn State head coach James Franklin lost his grip on both him and the state this cycle.

As far as Ohio State is concerned, I wasn’t surprised to see Davis go elsewhere. The Buckeyes were always on the outside looking in for the four-star safety. His recent visit for the Buckeye Bash gained some momentum, but clearly not enough.

Hastings: Davis' recruitment was one that I knew had the potential to change at any minute, so I was always hesitant about putting in a prediction for any school.

While he is someone who is very low-key, Davis also bounced between different programs and it was never a guarantee where he was going to go. I was leaning Ohio State early last week, but LSU started to pick up steam late Thursday/Friday after his family visited Baton Rouge the weekend before.

In my opinion, Davis seeing an opportunity for earlier playing time at safety with the Tigers, the diversity in culture at the school and his family being impressed by their visit led to such a drastic change in his recruitment.

What appeared to be an Ohio State-Penn State battle morphed into LSU joining the mix, and the Tigers eventually winning the Davis Sweepstakes.

There's no sugarcoating this as Davis was the top remaining DB target for the Buckeyes, and he's someone the program has been recruiting since he was an underclassman. This also leads one to wonder if they'll circle back to some previous offers at safety, or stick with who they have at defensive back in this cycle.

This was a difficult loss, but the silver lining for Ohio State is that one of their fellow Big Ten East members, Penn State, lost yet another in-state recruit. None of the top nine senior prospects in Pennsylvania are committed to the Nittany Lions. In fact, the Buckeyes hold two of those commitments -- Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Adding Davis would have been a big-time addition for Ryan Day's staff, but they can take solace in knowing that one of their rivals is continuing to reel on the recruiting trail.

2. Which Ohio State commits do you believe are due for a bump in the rankings?

Anders: A pair of in-state prospects stand out to me for a potential ratings boost: inside linebacker Reid Carrico and outside linebacker Jaylen Johnson.

Carrico has always looked like a prototypical inside linebacker to me, and the fact that he’s not in the top 100 prospects nationally is something I believe should change.

It doesn’t hurt that he’s been absolutely mauling for Ironton this season, guiding the team to an undefeated record and the final four of the state playoffs. Carrico’s rushed for 1,176 yards at an incredible 12.1 per-carry clip in the eight games Ironton’s updated its statistics for.

On defense, he’s terrorized opposing backfields and wide receivers that dare come across the middle of the field.

Johnson, on the other hand, has been a huge part of La Salle’s defense, also leading his team to Ohio’s final four.

The Lancers use him all over the field in their defense. He can play the box as a linebacker, rush off the edge and drop into deep coverage. He has a nose for the ball, and while there’s some technique that needs refined, I believe he should see a fourth star next to his name.

Hastings: We do not have an official date as to when the new Rivals rankings will be unveiled, but it is always fun to speculate where prospects will wind up in the next update.

With a number of Ohio State commits' seasons having been completed or approaching the finish line, evaluating which players have seen their stock rise is an enjoyable exercise.

Starting on offense, I believe Jayden Ballard and Harrison Jr. should be joining the Rivals100 soon. Ballard put on a show last week with a trio of touchdown catches in a pivotal playoff game, while Harrison Jr. has been a TD machine for St. Joe's Prep so far this season.

The person throwing to Harrison Jr., McCord, should also get a bump in the rankings. Combining his performance at the Elite 11 Finals during the summer with the number of touchdowns he's tossed for and how explosive his offense as been, McCord is definitely a candidate for five-star status.

It is always hard to tell with offensive linemen, but Zenuae Michalski is someone that may be in consideration for a fourth star. At the very least, I expect his Rivals Rating to rise from 5.5 to 5.7 or higher.

Switching over to defense, I am in the mindset that Jaylen Johnson should be in the mix for being elevated to four-star status. He's been a consistent tackler and anchor for a La Salle defense that held Winton Woods to just 10 points in their Regional Final matchup last week.

I would not expect a drastic change here, but Rivals100 defensive tackle Michael Hall could be in the running for a bump in his ranking as well. I could see him leapfrogging 10 or 15 prospects after the solid year he put together with Streetsboro.

It's unfortunate with prospects like Evan Pryor, TreVeyon Henderson and Tyleik Williams, who were not able to play this season and saw their bowl games canceled. I would not expect too much movement from recruits that saw their seasons postponed to the spring and thus could not play in their senior campaigns.

3. Do the Buckeyes have a realistic shot at flipping anybody in the 2021 class?

Anders: I don’t believe so.

Joseph might know more than me here, but before he committed three-star tackle Zen Michalski would have been my lone pick for a flip.

There have been murmurings about Raesjon Davis, a four-star outside linebacker commit to LSU, and he has been in talks with the Buckeyes. LSU’s lackluster performance this season doesn’t hurt Ohio State’s case.

The problem is COVID-19. Due to the dead period that’s extended through the end of this calendar year, Davis hasn’t been able to take a visit to Columbus and it’s doubtful he can until he signs.

This is the case for most of the Class of 2021, and it’s the unfortunate truth of why the Buckeyes are unlikely to flip players from other schools. Visits are essential to such maneuvers, and prospects can’t take them right now.

Not saying it’s impossible, just unlikely.

Hastings: I completely agree with everything Andy laid out above.

In a normal recruiting cycle, which this one has been anything but, I would have been very interested in seeing if players like Davis, Barrett Carter or Jager Burton would take even just an official visit to the school.

They could still reaffirm their pledges in the interviews immediately following these visits, though an OV could have helped Ohio State gain at least some ground with each of them, namely Burton.

These are the prospects that OSU has a chance at flipping; in my opinion, however, the percentage of that happening is slim to none.

Even though he just committed and I think it's unlikely he changes his mind with just over a month to go, I would not completely rule out Derrick Davis here.

For one, LSU's lackluster season could lead to some coaches losing their jobs; assuming how much Davis valued relationships with the staff in his decision, this could give him a reason to pause.

Also, if Davis does change his mind, you would have to give Penn State and Ohio State the edge in his recruitment. With how the Nittany Lions have hit rock bottom this year and the Buckeyes being in a position to make yet another appearance in the College Football Playoff, I'd say they are the more appealing option for Davis.

Ryan Day's staff will have better luck with the uncommitted targets on their board, so that's where most of the focus will be.

Stay tuned to BuckeyeGrove.