The wait is almost over.
After months of projections, topsy-turvy play, and overall Big Ten chaos, Ohio State is less than a week away from learning its official place in the 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket.
Ending the regular season on a four-game losing streak won't help the Buckeyes' case much, but the fact that three of those losses came at the hands of projected No. 1 or No. 2 seeds gives Chris Holtmann and company some wiggle room.
The Buckeyes will play the winner of Minnesota-Northwestern on Thursday afternoon in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. With a win, they'll have a third shot to knock off Purdue and a solid chance at sealing Holtmann's best Big Dance seeding as a head coach.
Buckle up. There's a lot of basketball still to be played.
Following the format of our friends at GoldandBlack.com, let's review Ohio State's tournament résumé as we inch towards one of the strangest postseasons in the history of March Madness.
Basic Info
Record: 18-8 (12-8 Big Ten), 10-4 home, 7-4 away, 1-0 neutral
AP Poll: No. 9
NET: No. 9
KenPom: No. 7
KenPom strength of schedule: No. 7
Big Ten Tournament
Quadrant Wins/Losses
Quadrants are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to determine how impressive a team's slate of wins is. They're based on the committee's NET rankings. Here, Ohio State's quadrant record appears in parentheses next to the definition of said quadrant.
Q1 (7-6): Home vs. NET 1-30, Neutral vs. NET 1-50, Away vs. NET 1-75
Wins: UCLA (neutral), Rutgers (away), Illinois (away), Wisconsin (away), Iowa (away), Maryland (away), Penn State (away)
Losses: Purdue (away), Purdue (home), Michigan (home), Michigan State (away), Iowa (home), Illinois (home)
Q2 (5-2): Home vs. NET 31-75, Neutral vs. NET 51-100, Away vs. NET 76-135
Wins: Notre Dame (away), Rutgers (home), Penn State (home), Michigan State (home), Indiana (home)
Losses: Northwestern (away), Minnesota (away)
Q3 (3-0): Home vs. NET 76-160, Neutral vs. NET 101-200, Away vs. NET 136-240
Wins: Morehead State (home), Nebraska (home), Northwestern (home)
Q4 (3-0): Everything else
Wins: Illinois State (home), UMass-Lowell (home), Cleveland State (home)
Note: Ohio State's road loss to Minnesota was bumped down to a Q2 loss, while the Buckeyes' road loss to Michigan State was bumped up to a Q1 loss.
Bracketology
Bracket Matrix: No. 2 seed (composite), 2.09 (average)
ESPN: No. 2 seed (through 3/7)
CBS Sports: No. 2 seed (through 3/7)
NCAA.com: No. 2 seed (through 3/7)
The Athletic: No. 2 seed (through 3/7)
The Outlook
Surprisingly enough, the vast majority of bracket predictions still have Ohio State settled into one of the top two No. 2 seeds-- even with its extended losing streak.
If the Buckeyes win their Big Ten Tournament opener, their absolute seed floor should be a No. 3 seed. If they manage to knock off Purdue in the quarterfinals, the No. 2 line will just about be locked into place.
Don't be fooled by recency bias-- this is a team with one of the nation's best collections of wins. Massive victories over Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, and Wisconsin are carrying Ohio State's résumé right now, no matter how long ago they seemed to have taken place.
Indianapolis, here we come.