Published Nov 19, 2020
Looking at the impact of Michael Penix Jr. on Indiana's success
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Marcus Horton  •  DottingTheEyes
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This season might be the beginning of the Big Ten quarterback revolution.

The conference's current group of arms is one of the most exciting in recent memory. Behind Justin Fields, there exists a host of potential-filled young guns and a mix of dynamic athletes with versatile skill sets.

Offensively, the conference is trending in a different direction than most are used to seeing.

Behind Fields, Wisconsin's Graham Mertz and Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa have taken over their respective programs in the blink of an eye. Joe Milton holds the reins in Michigan and Luke McCaffrey appears to be the next face of Nebraska football.

Above all of the other exciting young faces, one stands out: the Big Ten’s leader in passing yards through four weeks, Michael Penix Jr.

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Indiana is undefeated in large part due to the emergence of its redshirt sophomore quarterback, who has thrown for 1,070 yards this season after only playing in six games last year. The signs were evident in 2019-- Penix is a big lefty who takes risks and makes plays.

He’s surrounded by a core of athletic receivers who enhance his great plays and neutralize his inaccuracies, making the Florida native even more dangerous this season.

There is no doubt that the Hoosier offense will be the largest challenge Ohio State has gone up against this season. But a more interesting question exists: is Penix the best quarterback the Buckeyes will see in Big Ten play?

It all comes down to his efficiency, big-play potential, and newfound impact as a winner. Let’s take a look at how Penix compares to the rest of the conference and find out what makes him so special.

Efficiency

It’s hard to judge Penix and his offensive output simply based upon his volume stats, simply because Tom Allen loves to throw the ball. Indiana has already attempted 150 passes this season-- the most in the Big Ten by a decent margin.

Penix is completing a less-than-stellar 60.7 percent of his passes thus far, right in the middle of the pack for Big Ten quarterbacks. But the fact that he throws so much provides a larger margin of error for his completion percentage.

In every game since his 19-of-36 performance to open the season against Penn State, the sophomore has completed at least 60 percent of his passes. Against Rutgers and Michigan, Penix was a combined 47-of-76 through the air with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

His number of incompletions leave some room to work (especially when compared to Fields), and his overall efficiency is not always pretty. Penix sometimes looks rushed or easily rattled in the pocket, and his funky, lefty release is just a little bit off when he has to get rid of the ball early.

Big Ten QB efficiency
RankName (school)Completion percentageTDs/INTsYards per attempt

1

Justin Fields (Ohio State)

86.7

11/0

10.9

2

Graham Mertz (Wisconsin)

74.4

7/0

8.7

3

Luke McCaffrey (Nebraska)

69.0

1/2

7.1

4

Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland)

67.4

6/4

9.0

5

Peyton Ramsey (Northwestern)

65.8

6/4

6.5

6

Aidan O'Connell (Purdue)

64.7

7/2

6.7

7

Noah Vedral (Rutgers)

63.1

5/7

5.6

8

Michael Penix Jr. (Indiana)

60.7

9/3

7.1

9

Joe Milton (Michigan)

58.7

4/4

7.7

10

Tanner Morgan (Minnesota)

57.5

4/4

7.3

11

Rocky Lombardi (Michigan State)

57.1

6/7

7.5

12

Sean Clifford (Penn State)

56.9

9/6

6.9

13

Spencer Petras (Iowa)

53.7

3/4

5.7

14

Coran Taylor (Illinois)

50.0

3/2

8.2

Compared to the rest of the Big Ten, Indiana’s lead playmaker isn’t totally efficient.

Fields, Tagovailoa, Peyton Ramsey, and a pack of others are all ahead of Penix, albeit on significantly less attempts. It’s a matter of quality versus quantity here. Penix will certainly continue to put up numbers because he is given a chance to make plays on nearly every snap.

Per PFF, Indiana’s gunslinger has completed just 10 of his 24 passes of more than 20 yards, but that includes his 0-of-8 eyesore going deep left.

He grades out as an above-average deep passer between the numbers and to the right, and on passes between 10 and 20 yards, Penix completes well over 50 percent of his attempts. He’s efficient enough to make the big plays and remain dangerous when looking deep.

Indiana’s passing offense is top-20 in the FBS and No. 3 in the Big Ten. Efficiency be damned, Penix is finding his targets when he needs a completion.

Even more important than that, he’s leading his team to wins.

Winning Plays

Perhaps no college QB has had a more iconic play this season than Penix.

After scoring what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown in overtime against Penn State, Indiana opted to go for two and the win. The rest will live in Hoosier lore forever.

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Often overlooked in his massive upset over the Nittany Lions is Penix’s overall performance in the closing minutes of the game. Down 28-20 with under two minutes left, the quarterback had completed just 11 of his 25 passes.

He turned on the gas when the game was in its most important minutes, completing eight of his next nine passes, scoring two touchdowns, and running in the game-tying two-point conversion in regulation and the game-winning conversion in overtime.

That’s the difference between Indiana as a whole from last season to this season. Winning plays are being made when the time comes.

Though he hasn’t been truly pressured in the fourth quarter since that Penn State game, Penix continues lead scoring drives when they appear most necessary.

When Rutgers put itself up early against Indiana, Penix proceeded to (with the help of his turnover-forcing defense) give his team a 20-7 halftime lead with a rushing touchdown of his own and 15-yard passing touchdown.

A week later, each time Michigan closed the gap to 10 against Penix and company, the quarterback led a scoring drive to keep the game out of hand. 12 plays, 96 yards to end the first half. 10 plays, 75 yards to open the third quarter. Eight plays, 29 yards to finally put the game out of reach in the fourth quarter.

The sophomore knows how to win.

Penix is far from the lone reason Indiana is undefeated. It has an aggressive defense and a talented core of receivers surrounding the quarterback. However, he’s certainly the cause for the Hoosiers’ upset win over Penn State and acts as the engine that drives an explosive offense.

He’s not overly efficient and has his fair share of questionable moments, but given his penchant for winning plays and his team’s overwhelming success this season, Penix is certainly the most dangerous quarterback remaining on Ohio State’s regular season schedule.