Can the Buckeyes secure the top class?

COLUMBUS, Ohio – The Ohio State recruiting class of 2021 continues to make an assault on the record books after picking up another member of the Rivals250 on Sunday with the commitment of Scottsdale (Ariz.) cornerback Denzel Burke.

The Buckeyes now have 14 players who are members of the Rivals250 with 10 players inside of the Rivals100. By comparison, the rest of the Big Ten has a grand total of six members of the Rivals100 and the remaining 13 schools combine for 13 more players from 101-250 in the Rivals.com rankings.

Five schools including Rutgers, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue don’t currently have a member of the Rivals250 in their class.

It is obvious that the Buckeyes are recruiting in a class of their own when it comes to Big Ten schools, and that has been the case in most recruiting cycles. The class of 2021 has seven other schools in the top-20 according to the Rivals.com team rankings, but that is not always the case and those numbers will start to fade as several southern schools start to ramp up their efforts and the college football world moves on from this prolonged dead period.

Over the past five completed recruiting cycles, the Big Ten has never had more than five classes represented in the top-20 of the recruiting rankings. The 2017 cycle had the Buckeyes, Wolverines, Nittany Lions, Terps and Cornhuskers all in the top-20.

No Big Ten school has been in the top-20 of all five of those seasons, even the Buckeyes who finished No. 21 in the class of 2019, largely due to only taking 17 players, a definite hinderance in the Rivals.com team recruiting rankings formula.

So, we have determined that the Buckeyes are recruiting at another level compared to the Big Ten, but in this cycle that really goes well beyond the constraints of the conference as Ohio State is making a run for a historical class overall.

The Buckeyes have a 600-point lead over No. 2 Tennessee and that is with five fewer players and with Ohio State sitting at only 19 commits, that leaves one spot where Ohio State can get “full points” before having to start dropping players out of the equation and replacing them with higher ranked players, and honestly that number should be two with a two-star kicker (Jesse Mirco) not adding a full-slate of points to Ohio State’s resume.

We are not here to denigrate Tennessee’s class, but we will throw it out there right now that the Vols have zero chance of winning the recruiting title and honestly will be lucky to finish in the top-three of the SEC when classes are done after the February 2021 signing period draws to a close.

Ohio State’s 19-man class is the second largest of any Division-I program currently, only behind the Vols and of the eight classes behind the Buckeyes and Vols in the rankings, only one has more than 15 members.

Instead it will be classes of programs like Clemson (3rd), USC (4th), Georgia (17th) and Alabama (35th) that will likely be there vying for that top spot along with Ohio State.

Alabama and Georgia have five and seven commits respectively while USC has 13 and Clemson has 12. All four of the previously mentioned programs, as well as others, all have a lot of room to gain in the rankings. But will it be enough to overtake the Buckeyes that hold significant leads in the rankings over each of these teams?

It is too early to declare Ohio State the winner of the 2021 team recruiting title, but the Buckeyes may be the safe bet.

This class not only could go down as the best of this year but could go down certainly has the best in Ohio State history and maybe, in terms of points, the best in the Rivals.com-era.

Remember, this is through the Rivals.com-era, which started in 2002. Out of those classes, this class already ranks No. 4 overall for Ohio State.

Sure, there are several more rankings updates to go. The last one was good to Ohio State with Tunmise Adeleye and Donovan Jackson moving up to five-star status. Other updates may not be as kind, but that is impossible to predict at this point.

The only thing we know is that the numbers of today surely won’t be the exact numbers of tomorrow. Figuring out “what this player” means and “what this other player” means only tells part of the story because until the final update after the January all-star games, we are dealing in a constantly evolving set of data points.

This current Ohio State class is just 169 points out of the 3,000-point club at this time. The commitment of a player like Hudson Wolfe would be worth 184 points and would push the Buckeyes through that point plateau. As would the commitment of players like Emeka Egbuka, JT Tuimoloau, Tristan Leigh, Tony Grimes and Damon Payne (granted Ohio State is in more with some of those players than others).

Getting to 3,000 points is not enough however because since Rivals.com changed its formula in 2013, only one team has won the national recruiting title with fewer than 3,000 points. Over the last 10 cycles, the average top class checked in at 3,082 points, and over the past five cycles, that number has jumped to 3,189 points.

It would take a lot of space and effort to write out every potential scenario about how Ohio State’s class could end but if we were to just put in what people expect as a “best case scenario” with no major surprises or flips of players like Jordan Hancock or Raesjon Davis etc., the Ohio State class could look like this based on the point values issued today with a 25-man class.

Adding JC Latham, Emeka Egbuka, JT Tuimoloau, Hudson Wolfe, Derrick Davis, Tywone Malone: 3,526 points.

That class is without names like Jaylin Davies, Jager Burton and others. Is that class above possible? Absolutely. It doesn’t mean that we can put that class into stone at this point. Although, Ohio State is a favorite or co-favorite on all the aforementioned players, so this is far from a pipe dream.

It would take a major change of fate for Ohio State not to eclipse its all-time high class with less than 200 points needed between now and the February signing period.

And while it is fun to star gaze and win that national recruiting title, that does not assure anyone any guaranteed wins along the way. More talent certainly helps in the long run but when you look at the last 10 recruiting champions, only Alabama has won titles within the window of their recruiting success with USC’s last title coming in 2004 and Georgia’s in 1980.

It is what you do with the talent, it is identifying positions of need and addressing those needs with the right players. And sometimes it just takes a little good fortune thrown in there as well.

That is no reason to ignore the quest for the nation’s top class, no ‘Northern’ team has won the recruiting title in the Rivals.com-era and the Buckeyes are certainly in position to walk away with the top-class of all time, if everything goes right.