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3-2-1: Rested and ready to go

COLUMBUS, Ohio – The Buckeyes may have had the open week this week but that does not mean we are getting to take a break here with the 3-2-1, there was plenty of things going on nationally this week as Ohio State had a week to work on some things internally, get healthy and focus on the next two-game stretch starting on a rare Friday night game at Northwestern.

We will be right back in this position after the Wisconsin game as the Buckeyes will have their second and final open week of the schedule before a four-game stretch with Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State and of course TTUN.

Let’s get right to it as we talk about three things we learned, ask two questions and make one prediction this week, all presented by our partners over at Hague Water Conditioning.

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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED THIS WEEK

Dude, where's my offense?
Dude, where's my offense? (USA Today Sports Images)

1 - A growing divide in the B1G

In a day where everyone is concerned that offensive players are getting away with too much in how rules are interpreted with defenseless player protections, pass interference interpretations and just the overall style of the game, don’t tell that to the Big Ten where six of the 12 teams that played on Saturday scored fewer than 20 points in their games, including a 17-12 Penn State win over Iowa and two teams getting shut out (Michigan State and Rutgers).

Yes, the Big Ten does have three teams in the top-10 of the nation in scoring offense with Ohio State leading the way at No. 4 while Wisconsin (No. 8) and Penn State (No. 9) round out that list. But the Big Ten also has five teams 90th or worse in the nation in scoring offense, including Northwestern at No. 128 and Rutgers at No. 130, and that is out of 130 teams. Rutgers has scored 71 points all season long, the Buckeyes put up 76 in a single game against Miami (Ohio). Take away a 48-point explosion for the Scarlet Knights against UMass and that number falls to 23 points over the remaining five games and a further look at the number shows that the woeful Scarlet Knights have just seven points in Big Ten play.

Northwestern has 35 points over the span of three B1G games, Iowa has 45 and also has the benefit of putting up a 30-spot against Rutgers. Michigan State has scored only 10 over its last two games (Ohio State, Wisconsin) but at least has the benefit of scoring 40 against Indiana and 31 against Northwestern to pad its numbers.

Eight of the 14 teams rank 75th or worse nationally in terms of rushing offense as a team. There are six teams that are 75th or worse in terms of passing offense as a team. Only three teams in the league are in the top-75 of both rushing and passing as team with Ohio State (Rush: 3, Pass: 63), Penn State (Rush: 43, Pass: 36) and Minnesota (Rush: 46, Pass: 74). It should not come as a surprise that the combined record of those three teams are 18-0. The fourth unbeaten team, Wisconsin, may only rank No. 98 in throwing the ball, but defense has carried the way with the Badgers leading the nation in rushing, pass efficiency and scoring defense, second in pass yardage allowed and No. 4 in turnover margin.

There is just a widening gap in the Big Ten when it comes to the haves and the have-nots and while the Big Ten really is in no danger of not filling its bowl roster come the end of the season, it is clear that there will be some ugly games along the way as the balanced teams will roll over the flawed ones in the league with great ease.

2 - Get healthy, stay sharp and on to the next one

This is not the NFL where we get a daily injury chart and know the status of each player but you have to figure that the open week helped this team in terms of the wear-and-tear of the regular season after playing for six consecutive weeks.

Fans absolutely hate the idea of having two open weeks (hell, some hate the idea of having one but I will save my comments on that for another time and another place) but as the college football season could swell to 15 games for a pair of fortunate teams in the College Football Playoff championship game, having some time to get these players right both from a physical and mental standpoint is absolutely critical.

It certainly does not hurt to have the Buckeyes off on the first true big weekend of match-ups of the season, giving them a front-and-center seat to see the Georgia Bulldogs come up short to South Carolina in the first top-five upset of the season and drive home the message that no game is predetermined in college football and you have to bring it every week.

Barring any overtime games over the next two, the Buckeyes won’t have to wait long for their second open week after the home game against Wisconsin before focusing on the final stretch run of four games, including Penn State and Michigan.

First things first however, while people might not be thinking much of the Northwestern Wildcats, they are on scholarship too and just ask Toledo what happens when you don’t have it in a conference game, on the road, as a 27-point favorite over Bowling Green. BGSU walks away with a 20-7 win.

While we don’t see a Purdue or Iowa situation happening this week, the Buckeyes better have used the week without a game to stay focused, get healthy and on to the next game.

You had one job UNC
You had one job UNC (USA Today Sports Images)

3 - The polls must be crazy

The ACC has really turned into a one-bid conference to steal a term from College Basketball. With UVA and Wake Forest dropping out of the polls after losses this week, the ACC only has one team in the top-25 of either of the major polls (AP/Coaches) and somehow, someway the voters continue to give Clemson some sort of legacy vote, benefit of the doubt or Dabo has some really juicy dirt on all of the voters.

Look, it is week eight, there is a lot of football left to be played. But when you look at Clemson, the Tigers have really played all of their difficult games, maybe save South Carolina, who just a few short days ago looked like a very small speed bump on the schedule before the Gamecocks knocked off UGA in Athens (Ga.).

But with games against Louisville, Boston College, Wofford (#woof), NC State, Wake Forest and South Carolina, we struggle to find anyone with much of a chance to do anything against the Tigers.

Jeff Sagarin agrees with his ratings where the toughest foe that Clemson has left to play will be that Carolina team at No. 28. The toughest team on that entire schedule? A win over No. 21 Texas A&M.

Don’t get excited about who could be the foe in the ACC Championship game out of the Coastal Division, that half of the league is led by UVA at No. 38 in terms of rankings.

In fact, if you just stick with the Sagarin ratings (we are just using one metric for the sake of consistency, Clemson rates well behind both the Big Ten and the Big 12 in terms of their schedule based on the average opponent rating, as of this week. Granted, those numbers will move up and down as the year goes on but it still should give a pretty good indication.

We even take it a step further by adding the best case scenario opponent in terms of strengthening the number in the league championship game.

Average Opponent Ratings via Sagarin Ratings
Team Avg./12 games Avg./13 games 

Ohio State (B1G)

51.7

47.9 (vs. Wisconsin)

Oklahoma (B12)

50.9

48.1 (vs. Texas)

Alabama (SEC)

70.5

65.8 (vs. Georgia)

Clemson (ACC)

68.9

66.5 (vs. Virginia)

Oregon* (P12)

51.0

48.3 (vs. Utah)

* there is no clarity in the Pac-12 but Oregon passes the eye test as the team to beat

The most shocking thing is how well the Pac-12 seems to be regarded according to this one set of rankings but we also have little faith that the Ducks can run the table in a league that is really middle-heavy and devoid of good teams.

Yes, Alabama is not doing so well either but with games against Western Carolina (No. 238) and New Mexico State (No. 161) as part of the SEC’s master scheduling plan, you are going to get what you get, the SEC also has six teams in the top-20, while the Big Ten has seven.

The Buckeyes still have games against No. 3 (Wisconsin), No. 7 (Penn State) and No. 13 (Michigan) and already has wins against No. 20 (Michigan State) and No. 27 (Cincinnati).

The Big 12? Whoever emerges from Oklahoma and Texas ultimately will have had to face off against each other (Oklahoma – 4, Texas – 14) while Iowa State is No. 17 and Oklahoma State (No. 23) and Baylor (No. 24) round out the top-25.

And of course the SEC is going to be a grinder with Alabama (No. 2), LSU (No. 6), Auburn (No. 9), UGA (No. 10), Florida (No. 12) and Missouri (No. 18).

Now that we got sidetracked with a lot of numbers and data points, we will finally make our point (to make a short story longer). Why is Clemson getting the benefit of the doubt based on a longevity award of being the defending national champion in a really marginal league? When the second highest rated team comes in at No. 38 in the ACC, that should tell you all that you need to know about what kind of challenge the Tigers are facing each week while other leagues run the risk of much more cannibalization along the way. The other argument can be made that the Tigers won't be tested by the time that they get to the CFP, but why should they be there in the first place?

It is not as if the Sagarin ratings are the only ones that don't like the Tigers, the SP+ from ESPN has Clemson No. 8, behind three Big Ten teams and three SEC teams, one of them (UGA) with a loss.

The AP/Coaches polls really won't matter once the committee meets in Grapevine (Texas) and looks at all of the available data, but based on the last couple of committees, is there any reason not to expect them to fall in love with the name on the front of the jersey more than looking at the big picture?

Color us unimpressed with how the committee has handled its job over the years and we are not expecting much relief when the first rankings come out in November.

TWO QUESTIONS THIS WEEK

1 - Will there be rust?

There is always the fear that you lose a little bit of your edge after that open week and the Buckeyes will be playing their first game in nearly two weeks when they step on the field against Northwestern.

Ohio State was not rusty to start the season against FAU with touchdowns on the first four drives and putting a steak through the heart of the Owls with a 28-0 lead by the end of the first frame, and that was coming off of a much longer layoff than just a week.

Granted, Northwestern is a much better team in terms of total defense than FAU, and the game is in Evanston and not in Columbus, but we are just not going to buy into too much of the rust worries, though we know better than to dismiss them entirely. But fortunately, Northwestern sat out just as long as Ohio State did and they will have to answer the same questions about rust that the Buckeyes will this week.

Ohio State is a perfect 10-0 coming out of open weeks in the last 10 games and while some of them have been close (36-31 vs. Nebraska in 2018, 39-38 vs. Penn State in 2017, 21-14 vs. Wisconsin in 2012 and 33-29 vs. Wisconsin in 2011) there have also been a great number of blowouts along the way. You never know how each team is going to respond but we have a feeling that neither Northwestern nor Maryland (after open week No. 2) are going to be able to muster enough to put either game in peril.

Decisions, decisions, who to root against?
Decisions, decisions, who to root against? (USA Today Sports Images)

2 - That game in State College... who to root for, or against?

Ohio State fans won't have an Ohio State game to worry about on Saturday (with the game taking place on Friday) and will be able to clear the deck and wish a loss on both Penn State and Michigan. Of course, we know that can't happen, someone has to win that game.

What outcome would benefit the Buckeyes the most?

We are going to speak in a hypothetical sense because if Ohio State trips along the way, this all becomes academic, and while nobody in the WHAC wants to go down this trail, we are not playing for the team, we can speculate all that we want.

To me, it is an easy decision of who to pull for in that game and it is the rival to the east instead of the rival to the north, but that is going to be a decision that everyone will have to come to on their own.

There will always be that sect of people who think that a strong Michigan benefits the Buckeyes and the league the most but there is a much larger group of people who believe that any loss for Michigan is good for the Buckeyes and the league be damned.

Ohio State gets these teams on back-to-back weeks so there is not really any sort of 'order of operations' here as to the right combination of who loses when because Ohio State is going to have to beat both of these teams. Penn State is currently sitting with no losses while the Wolverines already have a conference loss.

If Michigan loses this game, they will be sitting with two losses, will have a tough OOC game against Notre Dame and would essentially be out of the league race, two games behind Ohio State and two-plus behind Penn State (with the head-to-head loss) and that Notre Dame game would only matter in terms of national view and maybe psyche of the Wolverines.

If Michigan wins the game, maybe they start to feel better about themselves after allowing Illinois to march back into a game that the Illini had no business being part of (Michigan ultimately pulled away after seeing the lead shrink to 28-25) and any sort of positive vibes fly right into the face of what any Ohio State fan wants to see for their biggest rival.

A nice mediocre 17-14 game, filled with turnovers, three-and-outs and short on spectacular plays would be what the doctored ordered. If Michigan is able to run on Penn State (which teams have struggled with so far) then the Buckeyes can go to school on that. If Penn State is able to throw with consistency on the Michigan defense, the Buckeyes will take that as well, just adding to the file on each of these teams.

But at the end of the day, knocking Michigan out of the race now and then clinching the Big Ten East after potentially beating Penn State at home (granted, Ohio State has a lot of games to win between now and then) would be ideal and then that is not something in question when the Buckeyes have to travel to Ann Arbor (Mich.).

ONE PREDICTION: The Buckeyes pitch a shutout

At risk of scooping myself for my pick that will show up later in the week for this game, I just am not sure how Northwestern is going to score points in this game. The Cats have not been shut out this season but have been held to 10 or fewer points in three of five games.

Sure, they put up a robust 15 points against Wisconsin, in Madison of all places. But 12 of those points came in the final nine minutes of the game and the Cats barely broke the 250-yard mark of total offense in that game. This game may be at home and the Badgers may have the better statistical defense through half a dozen games, but I just like Ohio State to keep Northwestern off the board.

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