Published Mar 30, 2018
2018 Lookahead: Penn State
Nick McWilliams  •  DottingTheEyes
Staff Writer
Twitter
@NickM_OSU

COLUMBUS, Ohio - After last season's barn-burning classic with Penn State, Ohio State will be traveling to Happy Valley this year to try and avenge the team's 2016 loss. Only this time, things will look a lot different for both sides.

There has been plenty of team shuffling for both sides, bringing some intrigue to the 2018 edition of a game that has become a yearly classic in recent memory. Here's a quick look at how the Nittany Lions attack will look.

Looking back at 2017

There was little not to like about the Penn State team in 2017. From a fluid offense, run predominately through phenom Saquon Barkley and the shifty receiving of DaeSean Hamilton, the Nittany Lions were second in the Big Ten in offense.

Trace McSorley tossed a league best 3,570 yards, helping lead the Penn State offense to over 41 points per game last season, matching the output of Ohio State. McSorley's improve-like nature in the pocket matched with the receiving of Hamilton, Barkley's shiftiness and the dynamic ability of tight end Mike Gesicki made the Nittany Lions a tough unit to stop.

However, it was more than just offense that drove James Franklin's team.

Penn State also enjoyed a stout defense, which allowed just 16.5 points per game, while also earning just a hair under two takeaways per contest. Cornerback Amani Oruwariye was a big reason for team's limited passing success against the Nittany Lions, as the slot corner led the team with four interceptions.

Linebacker is a staple of many Penn State team's and 2017 was no different, highlighted by big hitter Jason Cabinda. The California product led all players with 90 total tackles and was a consistent force in the middle of the field against the run.

Penn State lost two games over the course of the season, dropping a 39-38 barn-burning classic to the Buckeyes in Ohio Stadium, followed up by a 27-24 loss to Michigan State the very next week. Finishing the year No. 8 in the AP poll and earning a hard-fought Fiesta Bowl win, Penn State finished the year on a high note.

Key Departures

While the above names and numbers show great promise for the 2018 Penn State football team, there's just one issue — nearly all those players have now moved on.

Barkley is likely to be selected in the top four of this year's NFL draft, while players like Gesicki and Hamilton have created their own buzz prior to the selections. Cabinda is also gone, while the entire starting secondary for the Nittany Lions is now gone as well.

The team's third-leading tackler, Brandon Smith, a middle linebacker who started behind Cabinda late in the season, is also gone. Manny Bowen's troubled career with the Nittany Lions came to an abrupt end in 2017 after season, effectively ending his chance to take over the defense in 2018.

That's 190 tackles missing next season from what they had last year, just at linebacker.

It's hard to put into perspective the amount of production lost for Penn State in one draft class, but it's top running back who powered most the offense, their two biggest receiving threats in terms of touchdowns, the team's leading tackler and defensive leader and the entire defensive backfield from 2017 will all be gone when the 2018 season gets under way.

Possibly even bigger than those player losses is the hole left by outgoing offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who jumped ship to take a head coaching job at Mississippi State. While Ricky Rahne has stepped in, bumping up from quarterbacks coach, to take over, it's hard to believe the Penn State offense will be anywhere near last year's version with a plethora of names out of the building.

Key returnees

All the new faces on a team is not always a bad sign for a team's success. Bringing in a fresh crop of players who sat back behind the tutelage of others can show how well practice and time spent with veterans can help mold a team for generations to come.

The most obvious key returner will be McSorley, who gets one final go-round in Happy Valley. Currently, the Virginia native is etched into the Penn State record books with the highest completion percentage (61.8) and career passer efficiency mark (152.9) ever for the Nittany Lions. He can continue to add to those totals, but it will have to be with the help of a few new starters.

Giant wide receiver Juwan Johnson will return as the team's x-receiver, flanked by fifth-year senior DeAndre Thompkins. The pair combined for over 1,100 yards receivng last season, but only produced four total touchdowns, overshadowed by Gesicki and Hamilton. Still, the two vastly different styles of play for the pair that worked well together all last season could prove to be the different look needed for the Nittany Lion offense to flourish.

Miles Sanders could get the starting running back role after earning the third-most rushing yards on the team, but he failed to eclipse 200 yards, albeit on just 31 carries.

Defensively, Penn State will be doing a near reboot, replacing essentially half of it's starters. The biggest return is clearly Oruwariye, who will finally get a starting role after four long years of waiting.

Koa Farmer, who Ohio State fans might remember as the up-man who nearly broke a short kickoff into a touchdown in the team's showdown with Penn state last season, will be a key cog in the defense, forced into prominence with the loss of three linebackers ahead of him.

Biggest Questions

Who replaces Barkley?

While Sanders makes the most sense here as mentioned above, there's still the possibility of Johnathan Thomas cracking into a starting role, given he is the most senior running back on the team. Sanders and Thomas are built nearly identical and have similar running styles, so it's not exactly a logical move to go with a two-headed monster in the backfield.

Mark Allen, who is also a fifth-year senior like Thomas, is a much smaller, quicker back, which matches Barkley's style most, but his overall small sample size in the receiving department and lack of power running limit expectations.

At this point, it's a bit of a toss up as to who will eventually take over behind McSorley, although some indications from Franklin have pointed thins in Sanders direction, even though the Penn State head coach feels it will be in a more limited capacity, opening the door for another to break through.

Tight end depth dilemma

While there are five tight ends heading into the season who can be the guy moving forward, there's a problem that arises when considering just how wide open that competition is. If they're all on the same level, what happens if one is ineffective?

Sure, it can be assumed a mistake was made in naming player X as the go-to guy when his game is below average, but it could spell trouble at a position so vital to the offense last season. If the starter goes belly-up in the first few weeks and if he's replaced with someone with little to no improvement, the carousel-like rotation could bring down the production of the tight ends.

Clearly, no incoming players will live up to the standard of Gesicki, but if early indications are not bright for Jonathan Hollard or Nick Bowers, don't expect much from the Nittany Lions' tight ends.

Is linebacker a lost cause now?

Nearly 200 tackles vanishing from a linebacking group should be a death sentence for productivity, but it's hard to count out Penn State when it comes to the position. After all, this is the place that produced Jack Ham, Sean Lee, Paul Posluszny and Tamba Hali to name a few.

Aside from Farmer, Penn State can turn to veterans Jake Cooper, Jarvis Miller and Jan Johnson. But the real weapon could very well be freshman Micah Parsons, who came into Happy Valley as a defensive end but has more than enough speed to play linebacker.

A 4.66 40-yard dash time for a guy who's 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds could mean some sleepless nights for Big Ten offenses if Franklin pulls the trigger and puts Parsons at linebacker full time, as well as in his first year. Keep an eye on that storyline.

Closing Thoughts

Aside from the lost players and the challenge that lies ahead for Penn State, the Nittany Lions could find themselves battling at the top of the Big Ten again if they play their cards right. They still have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference under center and a pair of wide receivers who can make life miserable for defenders, as well as plenty of new, hungry faces on defense itching to take their first crack at consistent playing time.

If the 2017 edition of Ohio State vs. Penn State was any indication, things will get very interesting in Beaver Stadium. Last time Urban Meyer was there, he watched as the Nittany Lions essentially stole away his season as Cam Johnston could not bring down Grant Haley on a blocked field goal.

It will have been three years since that happened and the wound might still not be healed for some fans.

Given that Ohio State will be entering in a new quarterback and a few fresh faces on defense, this one should be pretty close, but give the advantage to the team that is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Way too early score prediction: Ohio State 34, Penn State 24