No team in the Big Ten has had more success against the Buckeyes since Urban Meyer took over than the Michigan State Spartans. The two teams had split the last six games from 2011 (under Luke Fickell) though 2016 before the Buckeyes broke serve and won in 2017 as well.
The Buckeyes actually were ranked lower than the Spartans in the 2017 game (12 vs. 13) on the heels of an embarrassing loss at Iowa City just a week before. Nobody was quite sure how the Buckeyes would react in the game after a blowout loss that ultimately cost the team a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The response was decisive by the Buckeyes as they ran for 335 yards as Mike Weber had 162 yards on nine carries and two scores while J.K. Dobbins had 124 yards on 18 carries. J.T. Barrett threw for 183 yards and two scores and had two on the ground of his own. The defense chipped in for six sacks and nine tackles for loss as the Buckeyes routed the Spartans 48-3 and helped put a little bit of space between the Buckeyes and that bad loss to the Hawkeyes.
Looking back at 2017
Nobody was quite sure what to make of the 2017 Spartans (10-3, 7-2). Many national experts expected this team to be out of the mix for the Big Ten East title and declared that a nine-win season might be the ceiling after some key departures and other noise around the athletic programs.
2016 saw the team go 3-9 and many people expected a bit of a step in the right direction but far from a leap that would have the Spartans in the mix for a share of a Big Ten East crown.
The Spartans made it through their first two non-conference games, both in the MAC with home games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan. Both wins were by two scores or more, but neither could really be categorized as dominating.
Week three would see a game at home against a revitalized Notre Dame team. Michigan State kept it close for one quarter and then Notre Dame would pull away for a 38-18 win in a game that was not even really as close as the score would indicate.
Getting through the non-conference schedule at 2-1 was a step forward for a team that only had three total wins just a season before and now attention would turn to league play.
Michigan State would reel off three straight wins, at home against Iowa, at Michigan, at Minnesota and home against Indiana to improve their record to 6-1. In fact, Michigan State would have all six of its first league games decided by one score (within eight points). The win at home over Michigan would be under the backdrop of heavy wind and rain, a formula that helped push Michigan State over Ohio State just two years before in Columbus.
The Spartans would get tripped up at Northwestern in triple overtime after scoring in the final minute of regulation to force extra football. Even in a loss, the Spartans were starting to show some players breaking out including quarterback Brian Lewerke who passed for 445 yards and four touchdowns in that game.
Michigan State would hand Penn State its second consecutive loss the following week (Ohio State beat PSU the week before) and would set up a November contest between the Buckeyes and Spartans. Ohio State would get the better of the Spartans that day, but Michigan State would go on to win its last three games. League games against Maryland and Rutgers would round out the regular season and Michigan State would wipe out Washington State in the Holiday Bowl, 42-17.
Key Departures
Michigan State will return many of its key players in 2018 and the list of departures is quite small. Off of the offensive line, Brian Allen will be gone at center and the Spartans will likely turn to his younger brother, Matt Allen, to fill that spot.
Linebacker Chris Frey will be gone after a successful run with the Spartans. Last season he had 55 tackles, four sacks, recovered three fumbles and had nine quarterback hurries for the Michigan State defense. He was a four-year letter winner and is an Upper Arlington (Ohio) product.
The Spartans will lose Demetrius Cooper off of the defensive line and the 13-game starter had 29 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss and seven QB hurries.
Running back is the one position where Michigan State will lose the most depth with Gerald Holmes leaving due to being out of eligibility and Madre London leaving to pursue the grad transfer route. The two combined for almost 600 yards on a little more than 160 carries and four scores. Neither had the type of impact that LJ Scott had, and the Spartans will go into 2018 knowing who their main rushing threat is.
Key Returnees
Quarterback Brian Lewerke is back for another run and looking to build on his 246-217 passing effort in 2017 for 2,793 yards and 20 scores against seven interceptions. Lewerke had a run in 2017 of some big games but also was taken out of his game by some of the better passing defenses (Ohio State being one).
LJ Scott is back and is coming off of an 898-yard rushing season and eight scores on 201 carries as he shared the load with several other runners. Scott will have to remain healthy if he wants to have the type of impact he is hoping for.
Felton Davis led the Spartans in receptions (55), receiving yards (776) and receiving touchdowns (9) last season. He will be another focal point of the offense in 2018 and teams will have to make him a priority as he will only continue to get better.
Linebacker Joe Bachie will be a junior this upcoming year and had a 100-tackle season to lead the Spartans by a wide margin. He had three interceptions to go with 8.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. He is one of those prototypical Michigan State linebackers that seem to be in on every play.
Safety David Dowell led the Spartans with five interceptions and joins his brother, Andrew Dowell, in the defensive plans.
Biggest Questions
Can Michigan State sneak up on anyone this year?
The answer to that is going to be no. Michigan State is going to be good enough to beat some teams outright, but last year they may have received a little bit of a snub from some early opponents who remembered the 3-9 Spartans. Now, the Spartans are being talked about right in the mix with Ohio State and Penn State (and maybe Michigan) for Big Ten East supremacy.
There really is no way to sneak up on the field however with a 10-win season, bowl win and proven head coach in Mark Dantonio, no matter how bad 2016 was. Teams will not look past this Michigan State team early and the Spartans will get everyone's best shot.
Have teams solved Brian Lewerke?
After back-to-back 400-yard passing games (at Northwestern, vs. Penn State) the numbers became a little more pedestrian for the junior-to-be. Ohio State held Lewerke to 131 yards and two picks. Maryland held him to 2-14 passing and 20 yards, but windy weather made things pretty much miserable for all involved in an ugly 17-7 game. The percentage bounced back against Rutgers and Washington State but neither of those teams are defensive stalwarts and it begs the question about what change for Lewerke toward the end of the season.
To be fair, he will have four returning offensive linemen in front of him and a solid cache of receivers to throw to. There won't be as much depth at running back however and while LJ Scott has to be mentioned with the top running backs in the league, if he is slowed to injury, a one-dimensional Michigan State team may not fare well.
Will youth be served?
Michigan State was one of the nation's youngest teams last year and are returning 49 letter winners and 19 positional starters in 2018. Sometimes teams run with that and take it to the next level and are better that 'next' year and other times teams will take a step back.
How many times have we seen teams that "next year will be better" end up coming up short? It happens some, not always, but some.
The Spartans are returning players in the right positions but with 19 returning positional starters, where will the motivation come in spring camp and fall camp if so many positions are locked into place, even if that is left unsaid? There are challenges with having so many players who are coming back to reclaim their spots and it will be on the coaches and the players themselves to keep competitions going through the camps to not only keep the starters hungry but also to develop much needed depth.
Closing thoughts
This Michigan State team has a schedule that sets up nicely even with two of the first three games being on the road, including a road game at Indiana. The conference road games beside the Hoosiers include Penn State, Maryland and Nebraska. Having both Ohio State and Michigan in East Lansing (Mich.) has to be considered a plus.
The high end for this team would definitely be double-digit wins but there may be some debate as to how many that would be, from 10 to more. One downside in the schedule is that Michigan State has a week three bye week and then will have to play 10 straight games, nine of them in conference play.
The Big Ten East is going to be a grinder and the Spartans have as good of a claim as anyone to be listed as a frontrunner to make the trip to Indianapolis to play for the conference title.
As with many teams, there are a few positions where an injury or underperforming could alter the outcomes of the team. LJ Scott and Brian Lewerke are very important to the success of this team and if one or both were to miss any significant time, the downgrade to the final record would be substantial.
We tend to think that the Spartans will make a strong run and be right in the mix until the end of the season. Final week(s) games against Nebraska and Rutgers as opposed to Ohio State (at Maryland, vs. Michigan), Michigan (vs. Indiana, at Ohio State) will be comparable to Penn State (at Rutgers, vs. Maryland) and could come into play as the grind of the season wears on and the margin for winning the league should be razor thin.
Way too early score prediction: Ohio State 31 Michigan State 24