Published Apr 6, 2018
2018 Lookahead: Michigan
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Kevin Noon  •  DottingTheEyes
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We have made it to the end of the series and the finale that everyone in the college football world waits for, 'The Game'.

The Buckeyes have had the upper-hand in this series for almost the last two decades. Ohio State has won six straight, lost once since 2003 (the NCAA may vacate games, but we don't) and a grand total of three times through the 2000 season.

There have been some memorable moments as of late. Michigan fans are still sore about 'the spot' in overtime in the 2016 game in Columbus that led to a Curtis Samuel touchdown to win the game and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl in the CFP. Last year had its own drama as well as the scene shifted to Ann Arbor (Mich.).

Nobody may ever truly know every detail about what happened in the opening moments of the game on the Ohio State sideline when J.T. Barrett reportedly took a camera to his knee and sent Urban Meyer's blood pressure through the roof. Barrett gave the game his best efforts but could not finish the game as Dwayne Haskins had to enter the game, seeing his first meaningful minutes not in a 4th quarter of a blowout.

Haskins would go 6/7 passing for 94 yards and rush for 24 yards, 22 of those yards on one carry that put the Buckeyes in scoring position for a one-yard J.K. Dobbins touchdown dive. The Ohio State defense would clamp down and make life difficult for John O'Korn after the Michigan back-up quarterback had early success in leading the Wolverines to a 14-0 lead.

Michigan would rush for less than 20 yards in the final two quarters and the Wolverine's passing game would not fare much better as Jordan Fuller would corral an errant O'Korn pass and the Buckeyes would go on to win 31-20.

Looking back at 2017

After coming off of back-to-back 10-3 seasons, fans in Ann Arbor were hoping for a step forward in 2017 and the season started off well for Michigan. The Wolverines went down to 'Jerry-World' and pushed around a depleted Florida roster (10 Gators were suspended) for a 33-17 decision that really was not even that close. It was Florida's first season-opening loss since 1989. Florida's offense only scored three points in the game as the Gators had two pick-sixes in the second quarter to take a brief lead before the Wolverines turned on the gas.

The Wolverines would run their schedule out to 4-0 by finishing the non-conference season with wins over Cincinnati and Air Force. Michigan would win its first league game, at Purdue but would suffer a loss that they could not overcome as the year went on, quarterback Wilton Speight. The Michigan QB left the game in the first quarter with what was then called an 'undisclosed' injury but later it would come out in a much-publicized tiff that Purdue's medical accommodations for visiting teams were subpar.

It would be learned that Speight had cracked vertebrae, but Jim Harbaugh would never rule him shut down for the season, but Speight would not record another snap the rest of the way.

Michigan would go through a see-saw battle between O'Korn and Brandon Peters the rest of the season. O'Korn would be next man up and would see his Wolverines fall at home against Michigan State, 14-10 in a weather-impacted game where O'Korn would throw three interceptions and despite outgaining the Spartans in yardage, 14 first half points would be enough for the visiting team.

O'Korn would get the call for the next two games, an overtime win over Indiana and a humiliating loss to Penn State, 42-13. The natives were growing restless in Ann Arbor and a change was being called for.

Peters would come in and replace O'Korn against Rutgers after a slow start and have a solid game as part of a 35-14 win over the Scarlet Knights. That would mark the start of a three-game win streak with wins also over Minnesota and Maryland as the Wolverines defense kept the offense in games, allowing a little more than 11 points per game in those three games.

The Wolverines would travel to Madison (Wis.) to take on the Badgers and the hits to Peters started to add up as he had to leave the game due to injury in the third quarter. O'Korn would return and the limited passing game would dry up as Michigan would fall 24-10.

Michigan tried to act as if any of its three quarterbacks might go against Ohio State, but conventional wisdom said that O'Korn was the only player healthy enough to go, and that is what happened.

Peters would start Michigan's bowl game against South Carolina and the Wolverines would open up a 19-3 lead in the third quarter and would watch the Gamecocks come roaring back for a 26-19 win as the Wolverines rushed for 54 yards in the second half, 18 in the 4th quarter to cap off of disappointing 8-5 season and a step back in the Harbaugh-revival tour.

Key Departures

The Wolverines don't lose many players but do lose some key players. Maurice Hurst may be the biggest loss as the dominating nose tackle that every team looks for every season. Hurst had 13.5 tackles for loss, five sacks and was just a disruptive force that had to be accounted for every minute of every play that he was on the field. Hurst was sent home from the NFL Scouting Combine after a heart condition was discovered. NFL doctors will have to put in overtime as teams decide if that could impact Hurst's professional playing career.

Linebacker Mike McCray was the second leading tackler for the Wolverines and accounted for 17 tackles for loss and five sacks as well. The Ohio State legacy opted to head north and put together a productive season with Michigan and will be hard to replace.

Offensive tackle Mason Cole started 25 games for the Wolverines at left tackle after moving outside from center. Michigan has had issues as of late with its offensive line development and losing a starting left tackle is difficult under the best of circumstances. The Wolverines are hoping the addition of former Ohio State offensive line coach Ed Warinner will help with the development problems, but Michigan needs to find a tackle immediately.

Quarterback is going to be a position we will talk about later but John O'Korn is out of eligibility and Wilton Speight is going to transfer. If Shea Patterson does not get immediately cleared by the NCAA after his transfer from Ole Miss, Speight has floated out the idea of coming back. But any way you look at it, losing two quarterbacks with experience is a tough pill to swallow and if Patterson is not cleared and Speight does not return, there will be some tense moments up north.

Key Returnees

At risk of missing out on several players, we will just touch upon a few of the key returnees with apologies to the ones we miss. Defensive ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich will keep Michigan in a lot of games. Winovich had eight sacks while Gary had six and the two combined for 30 tackles for loss.

The running back duo of Karan Higdon and Chris Evans combined for more than 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. If the passing game is not 'quite there' to start out, it will be nice to be able to fall back on a couple of veteran runners as the Wolverines try and sort things out with some new blood in the offensive coaching rooms.

Wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones has star written all over him. He won't be Michigan's leading receiver in terms of stats that will be back next season, but he has the look of a true No. 1 receiver. Getting Tarik Black back off of injury will also be a huge boost after Black was injured for most of the season.

Linebacker Devin Bush led the Wolverines in tackles with 100, had five sacks and interception and pretty much was just about everywhere on the field. As mentioned earlier, losing Mike McCray is a big hit but having Bush back will be a stabilizing force on a defense that should be pretty good in 2018.

Biggest Questions

Who will be the quarterback?

The Wolverines are hoping for some good news from the NCAA on the transfer of Shea Patterson into the program. The Toledo (Ohio) native picked Ole Miss over Michigan coming out of high school but when the NCAA hammer came down on the Rebels, Patterson was one of several Ole Miss players looking to find a new home and hopefully land an immediate NCAA waiver to play in 2018 without having to sit.

The NCAA moves at its own timeline however and as of publication, no news has been released by the governing body.

So, what happens if Patterson is not cleared?

Wilton Speight is still out there and as a graduate transfer has some options. He hopes to make a decision by June on where to land in 2018 as he has not enrolled anywhere, as of yet. The NCAA has to make a decision by then, don't they?

If not Patterson and not Speight, then who?

Brandon Peters hopes to figure into the mix, but Dylan McCaffrey may be the next guy up if given the opportunity. He has no game experience and fans were clamoring to pull his redshirt last year when issues developed with Michigan QBs. He is a highly-decorated prospect but has no real experience in terms of game action, even in mop-up duty.

How do you fix the offense?

The numbers are not kind when you look at the offensive numbers from last season. Michigan was No. 105 in total offense, No. 110 in passing offense and No. 115 in Team Passing Efficiency. Sure, the unsettled quarterback position led to a lot of that, but the Wolverines were held to 91st (tied) in scoring offense at just 25.2 points per game.

Tim Drevno is out at Michigan and Ed Warinner and Jim McElwain are in to provide some new looks on offense. Michigan will be bringing back the majority of its rushing game and most of its offensive line. But what happens if the savior from the South does not get cleared by the NCAA? There will be a lot of questions surrounding an offense that underperformed for most of the year and a team that was carried by its defense.

The good news (bad news if you are an Ohio State fans) is that Patterson is the real deal and getting Tarik Black will give the Wolverines a real one-two punch with DPJ out there. Michigan was forced to get creative down the stretch throwing to various tight ends and fullbacks and having a couple of true receivers out there that defenses can't just 'key in on one' will help alleviate some of the pressure.

It is not going to be a matter of being a quick fix though, under Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines have never had better than the 58th total offense in the nation. Personnel is a big thing, as are coordinators, but could some of it just be tracked down to Harbaugh's offensive system?

Is this the year Harbaugh bests his rivals?

There is not much that needs to be said here. Jim Harbaugh has beaten Michigan State once and Ohio State zero times in his first three years in Ann Arbor. That is a record of 1-5 against his biggest foes and where are the games this year? In East Lansing (Mich.) and in Columbus.

Winning non-conference regular season games is great (8-1) as is beating the teams you are supposed to beat in conference play. But a 1-5 record against your two biggest rivals and a 1-2 bowl record is not a great start for a coach that was supposed to return Michigan to where its fans believe that it should be at the top of the standings.

Michigan State returns every bit as much, if not more, from its 2017 as Michigan does. Ohio State has been a top-five recruiting team every year under Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes are well ahead of the Wolverines in terms of stockpiling talent.

There is no telling how loud the drumbeats will grow in Michigan if the record falls to 1-7 against OSU/MSU. We believe there is a very real chance we will find out by the end of November.

Closing thoughts

The schedule makers did Michigan no favors in 2018. The Wolverines open up against Notre Dame to start the season in South Bend (Ind.). The Fighting Irish have won two of the last three, including the most recent meeting in 2014, a 31-0 drubbing. Granted, that was under Brady Hoke and not Jim Harbaugh.

The non-conference schedule finishes up with Western Michigan and SMU and leads to a Big Ten opener against Nebraska at the Big House. The Huskers will be bringing in a new coach with Scott Frost and could be a real wild card depending on how Frost is able to transform that program.

Things get rough with a three-game stretch of vs. Wisconsin, at Michigan State and vs. Penn State. There is an open week before the Penn State game however, a bit of a saving grace before taking on the Nittany Lions.

The next two weeks appear to be manageable with a trip to Rutgers and home against Indiana before the annual tilt with the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium.

Things could turn out well for Michigan if they get Patterson, if the new offensive coaches get more out of the players this year than last year and the ball bounces the right way a couple of times. Notre Dame is certainly beatable with some key losses from 2017 that will need to be addressed in a season opener. Nebraska may need some time to get the right players in the right spots and week four is a big ask for a total transformation.

It is that UW/MSU/PSU streak that could be Michigan's foil this year. And of course, the Buckeyes are sitting there at the end too.

If things go well, 10-2 could be very much in play and an argument for playing in Indianapolis is the wins/losses fall correctly. If things go horribly awry, if Patterson is not cleared or something equally as costly? 7-5, 6-6 on the table? That just seems to be a perfect storm (if you are an Ohio State fan it is perfect, as long as one of those losses is on Nov. 24). The actual season will fall somewhere between those two, with an opening week loss to Notre Dame in addition to dropping games to Michigan State, Penn State and Ohio State to cap off an 8-4 season and another offseason of discontent up north.

Way too early score prediction: Ohio State 28 Michigan 24