BuckeyeGrove.com - Weekend Forecast: Week Ten

November 6, 2009

Staff
Staff

The season is starting to wind down and the race for top prognosticator is still up for grabs on BuckeyeGrove.com. This week we find that school up north fighting for its bowl life, a top ten battle in the SEC and of course the big one in Happy Valley.

Obviously nobody on staff is going to make a living in Las Vegas in picking games but it is still a fun chance to get a different view of how some of the top national games may go down. Check it out...

Purdue vs. Michigan

Kevin Noon (22-14): I fell into the trap last week of thinking that Purdue was back before they got pummeled by Wisconsin. Michigan on the other hand is limping towards the finish line and needs to lock up a sixth win in a hurry with the schedule turning ugly. Michigan's desperation for a win will be their biggest enemy however as they press and make multiple mistakes allowing Purdue to sneak a win out. Purdue 27 Michigan 25

Ari Wasserman (27-9): There is nobody in the Big Ten who has been playing as bad as Michigan as of late, but a team like Purdue can sometimes be the cure. However, the Boilermakers haven't been as bad as they were labeled in the preseason. Michigan got off to a fast start this season and showed some glimpses of a real turnaround, but with only Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State left on the schedule, this could be the last chance to qualify for a bowl game. I am not sure Rich Rodriguez will let the Wolverines down with his job possibly on the line. Michigan 24 Purdue 14

Brian Snow (27-9): This is an interesting game in the Big Ten because it will show just how good Purdue is, and potentially just how bad Michigan is. Right now the Wolverines have problems. They lost to a woeful Illinois squad, and the wheels seem to have come off the bus a little bit. At the same time the Boilers are feeling pretty good about themselves, and a win over Michigan would give them a huge shot in the arm for the future. Even though all the momentum in the world seems to be against Michigan right now, something just tells me that they are going to put it together for one week and get a win. Purdue's offense will make enough mistakes to help out the Michigan defense, and in the end the Wolverines come away victorious. Michigan 24 Purdue 20

Andy McLachlan (23-13): Typically in the forecast, we avoid picking games that have little meaning to the college football world. Usually when a 3-6 team and a 5-4 team meet this late in the season, no one cares or notices but with these two "hard to figure out" squads, we take notice and try to decipher. Tate Forcier is finally looking like a true freshman, playing with less confidence and poise he had two months ago. The Boilermakers have been competitive all season long, but looked lost and tired against Wisconsin last week. I picked Purdue last week. I will not get burned again. Michigan 29 Purdue 24

LSU vs. Alabama

Noon: Anyone who thinks that this game will be a slugfest need not apply. The Crimson Tide are paced by Heisman candidate Mark Ingram and a solid defense while LSU has been impressive enough to get to 7-1 on the season even if it has been without much flair. LSU has only given up three touchdowns on the ground this year and that stat will be tested by Ingram on Saturday. There are so many reasons to pick Alabama to win a low scoring game so here it goes... LSU 20 Alabama 17.

Wasserman: If you have watched LSU play this year, it has got to be tough to really think that the Tigers are anything special, particularly on offense. Alabama, now considered to be the best team in college football, has a very tough defense and should give LSU fits all day. I know Bama isn't flashy, but it is really tough to think Les Miles' boys will have enough to knock off a hyped up Tide team. Alabama 20 LSU 3

Snow: This is probably the game of the week because it is a relatively weak schedule. Alabama has clearly proven to be the class of the SEC West during the first part of the conference season while LSU has struggled at times with consistency on offense. Both teams have a good physical running back. LSU relies on Charles Scott while the Tide leans on Mark Ingram. In the end the difference could be which QB is less horrific, and both have had their Jamarcus Russell moments this year. I do think Alabama has a better defense and an offense more equipped to screw up less, so I am picking the Tide. Alabama 20 LSU 10

McLachlan: Talking about a game with so many implications attached. The Tide is looking to clinch the SEC West, jump over Florida again in the rankings and continue their quest towards a BCS title bid. The Bayou Bengals are looking to even things up with the Tide in their division, keep their title hopes alive and stick it to their former head coach Nick Saban. Alabama's defense will be the difference in this low scoring game. Alabama 16 LSU 14

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

Noon: Remember when this game meant so much nationally and in the Big Eight? It has been a while, hasn't it? Now it is a match-up of 5-3 teams and while it is safe to say that both will be bowling a fourth loss would be unacceptable around either program. The injury to Sam Bradford derailed plans for the Sooners early on while the Huskers really are not that good. When you look at parts left around the program the Sooners are at least twice as deep and solid as the Huskers. Oklahoma 34 Nebraska 17

Wasserman: I know that Nebraska has been a team in the past that was a powerhouse, but I still can't wrap my head around the fact that they may becoming a force yet again. Oklahoma has had a bad run of things, particularly with the injury to quarterback Sam Bradford, but they are still good enough to knock off the Huskers. Don't believe me? Sit back and see. Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 24

Snow: Outside of a game at Iowa State in which the Cornhuskers turned the ball over about 134 times, they have looked like a much improved squad. Meanwhile Oklahoma has had a disastrous season in which their two best offensive players have seen little to know playing time. Now the Sooners have to win without their studs, and that is never easy. Add in the fact that Nebraska has the best defensive player in the country in Ndamukong Suh, and it would seem that the Huskers beat the Sooners. However at the end of the day, Oklahoma has just enough, and ends up getting by Nebraska, and keeps their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl alive. Oklahoma 31 Nebraska 17

McLachlan: Both teams had high expectations earlier in the season and after they meet on Saturday, one of these powerhouse programs will have four losses on the year. With Sam Bradford in the lineup, there would be little doubt the Sooners win this one but a "stache" led Oklahoma offense has little flair and is less efficient. Bo Pelini is looking for his first major win as the coach of the Cornhuskers. Facing his vulnerable rival, he picks it up in the primetime showdown. Nebraska 30 Oklahoma 24

Ohio State vs. Penn State

Noon: I seriously have gone round and round over this game and have given different scores (and winners) to different radio interviews nationally. This really should just be a testament as to how even this game really could end up playing.

Penn State and Ohio State alike each have stellar defenses and one has to expect this game not to reach the 20s in scoring. When you get a game like that though however (remember the No. 1 Ohio State/No. 2 Michigan game) the score can blow up. Las Vegas even sees this game producing one team getting into the 20s with an Over/Under of 40 points.

Terrelle Pryor can giveth and taketh away in this game. If a confident and more importantly judicious Pryor shows up the Buckeyes have a great chance of winning this contest. If the hurried and ill-decision making Pryor shows up, not so much.

The Buckeyes will harass Daryll Clark from the moment he gets off of the bus and that will keep this game close until the fourth quarter. This will be the game where Ohio State engineers the late scoring drive instead of being on the receiving end of the dagger (see Texas and USC). Ohio State 20 Penn State 17

Wasserman: This game is very difficult to pick and I still cant fully make a decision and have full confidence that I am going to be right on this one. Because I have watched Ohio State's defense this year just dominate at times, it is always hard for me to go against the Buckeyes. Then, you go back to last year's game and you see that Ohio State's defense, which I think wasn't as explosive as this year's, hold a loaded Penn State team to 13 points, and that's another plus.

I know Penn State seems to be hitting its stride right now, but the bottom line is they have been blowing out the same teams Ohio State fans won't give credit to the Buckeyes for beating. Penn State is going to be a tough team, but the intimidation is something I don't understand since all they have done all year is beat up on bad teams as well.

Ohio State's offense is a work in progress, obviously, but it is hard to think that Penn State will be scoring a ton, either. I see this game being close and a few big breaks one way or the other can shift the way this one ends up. I am not confident in this pick, but I think the Buckeyes - desperate for a big win - find a way to pull this one off Saturday. Ohio State 17 Penn State 14

Snow: This game hasn't exactly been an offensive coordinator's dream the past few years. For whatever reason, whether it is good defense, bad offense, or terrible weather, it always seems like both Ohio State and Penn State can't get points on the board.

Last year the game came down to a Terrelle Pryor quarterback sneak. Pryor fumbled the ball, and had he not fumbled it probably would have been a touchdown, and the Buckeyes might have played for the national title, or at least would have been in the Rose Bowl for a rematch with USC. Instead they suffered a gut wrenching loss.

There is no doubt that Happy Valley will be painted white, and all of those folks will be trying their hardest to rattle Pryor in his Western Pennsylvania homecoming. What will determine this game is not the crowd, but how each team controls the ball. The squad that dominates the clock and turns it over less will win the game. Unfortunately for Buckeye fans, OSU has shown a propensity to turn it over this season, and I see it biting them once again this week. Penn State 16 Ohio State 10

McLachlan: Until the Wolverines get their act together, this is currently the best rivalry in the Big Ten. I know the elders of the site will argue otherwise but for entertaining football, you need entertaining team. Sure there is entertainment appeal for turnover after turnover from the Michigan offense but I am referring more to entertainment from a competitive football standpoint.

When breaking down footage of a football game, it is easy to determine who the difference maker was, who led the way and who faltered under pressure. Players and coaches of this game will likely fit into these roles when the dust settles but with such evenly matched teams, it is really hard to pre-calculate who will end up playing these parts.

If I had to make a guess, I would say the quarterback who is most efficient and the one that has the least amount of turnovers will end up winning the game. Daryll Clark is the veteran and the better passer at this point in his career but he does not quite have that dynamic factor that Pryor possesses.

We had a low scoring affair last year and we're going to have another one again. Both defenses will display their muscle early on, keeping the scores low and the yardage gained small. In the end, it will come down to field goal kicking, with both squads lacking experience in this field. A Pettrey-less Buckeyes will suffer in the three-point department and will miss a late field goal try in the loss. Penn State 17 Ohio State 14

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